Public opinion on China's military advancements is polarized, showcasing strong national pride among supporters while harboring skepticism and concern among critics about their capabilities and implications for global security. Central themes include admiration for military growth versus apprehension about escalation in regional conflicts, particularly concerning Taiwan, and negative perceptions of Western media coverage.

China

Israel

United States

Taiwan

War today, when conducted by allied nations, is like lite-war. In order to fight the likes of China/Russia/Korea, you have to remove all restraints and actually unleash the dogs of war. Half measures will never be effective.

FINN-DIESEL1776

You keep pointing out how the US hasn't fought a war like that, but China fought even less.

AntonioVivaldi7

Think about navies and try again. Nobody can match the U.S. for naval capability; and, without accounting for it, you can’t view other force movements properly. You can’t really see true air power or ground strength without a strong naval presence. You can’t see strike potentials or measure effects of incursions away from the front. You can’t predict supply lines being cut and economic isolation demoralizing the citizenry. Unless you’ve got a full and unrestricted naval commitment, unhindered by current treaties, you’re not seeing the whole picture.

ElectrifiedCupcake

China has also been making a lot of friends through diplomacy in lieu of regime change. Africa, South America, and even India and Russia are tired of being treated as colonies to be exploited by the US and the West. A relationship with China at least promises more autonomy and stability to wars and Cia sabotage promised by the west.

txjoe95

"The US never fought a military without complete air dominance after WW2. In the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, and the Iraq invasion, the US had air dominance."

Wrong. In both the Korean and Vietnam war the US did not have air dominance at the start of the wars. It achieved it by shooting down scores of enemy fighters.

PanzerWatts

You sound like you think a war is inevitable. it would be a rude awakening for both sides. Everyone will lose.

ActiveProfile689

You can try to fact stack about the experience of militaries and even amount spent on defense and production, but you can't control for every variable. Needless to say, If the US goes to war with China, it won't just be the US and China, it will most likely be a world war, so your post isn't pragmatic in the strictest sense. if it's any consolation many wargames favor China in a 1v1 but that's not to say the US can't win. We should be less focused on who would be victorious in destroying each-other and more focused on how to cohesively operate and ensure the best outcomes for all nations.

______Test______

Two nuclear powers, there will be no conventional war. These war machines are basically as useful as patents against each other. The true wars are economic and cyber. China plays the long game. They won't go to war. They will nudge a little here and there, and shore up their allies, influence economies through trade deals and slowly capture global markets because China has a massive resource that the US doesn't - cheap, captured labor. Cheap labor is the commodity and the US is exporting it at a cost back to countries of origin.

Adorable-Writing3617

[deleted]

1.) Even a war against inferior enemies teaches lessons and refines equipment.

2.) The war in Ukraine is political and gloves are on. If the US wanted to they could completely control the airspace in Ukraine. It’s antagonistic if they did being it’s not their war.

3.) Your statement shows a lack of knowledge on that war. The USA doesn’t do the scorched earth policy. It’s bad for politics and it’s creates future fighters as it should. You stated that they could go head to head with the Taliban. What head of the Taliban? Your view on operation redwing further shows your lack of knowledge in military operations. Life’s not a video game.

4.) Is your view that the cia should have different tactics for different adversaries? They do. The CIA has a far bigger foot print than MSS. Intelligence would be a huge aspect of the war.

5.) they produce more ships but not enough to compare to the USA as of today. Their ships are mostly not as capable as America. Drones that you mentioned are not as capable as you think. They can’t carry the payload of a jet and when planned can be defended against easily.

Mastiffmory

I think you severely underestimate the US military. If they had to fight in a real war, China would get defeated within months. The main issue would be all those peacemakers and using half-measures in fear of escalation or some humanitarian BS.

Speaking of Ukraine, they would have won the war long ago but US and EU are trickling aid and forcing them to fight 1 arm behind their back. They only got fighters recently and in very limited numbers.. old, outdated models too. They were and still are forbidden from using many US made weapons inside Russian territory. That's why they are developing the Flamingo missiles. EU countries also keep buying Russian oil and funding their war.

KayleeSinn

The leaders of the US after the Reagan administration have become so corrupt, so arrogant, so ignorant and so utterly cucked by the Bankster class.  


All of the military officers, politicians, administrators, educators and etc...everyone that occupies the Commanding Heights of Culture, Art, Politics, Business, Education, Science, Business...all of them are drunk on power.   


But unfortunately by the time the rude awakening will come these animals will drag us into WW3!

Ok_Tangelo_6070

I think you are neglecting how poor China is. The average person there only makes 3000 dollars a year and is pretty skinny. They're mostly busy just making food to feed all of their people.

No_Restaurant_4471

I volunteer as tribute to wed Xi’s only daughter and through wedlock unify the two nations.

EatMoarTendies

Rule number one. Never underestimate your enemy. We can argue who is better all we want, but we need to be prepared to be surprised.

backcountry57

I feel like this is a lot of propaganda for defense contractors that want new profitable contracts.

Not that China isn’t apt to attack Taiwan some day.

UndoxxableOhioan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_gap

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

edwardphonehands

So here is the take of an “old” Veteran. I’ve fought, and was wounded for this country. Like many, I’ve lost friends. Also I suspect like many of you here my/our families have fought in just about every war this nation has ever had. Having said that…since Vietnam, what do we have to show for it? A nation where the “rich” get to skip the draft for reasons like…bone spurs? Only to later get elected to some high office…because “they are such a patriot, and love our country”While those too poor to go to college got drafted/join up and get sent to Vietnam or in our time Iraq? For what? To protect America from Communism,terrorism, or any other “ism’s”.All sold to us as so important and necessary!  Only to just…bailed out in the end, like a kid tired of playing with a toy; all the sacrifices of blood and money meant nothing. We have been/ are being used to make rich men north of Richmond more wealthy. So…with that sentiment in mind, Remember the fallen this memorial day, seek to be an informed citizen and vote for those who don’t take our lives for granted, who don’t write checks other peoples children have to pay. A-little off topic I know, I apologize. We just cant buy into the bullshit of “fear” anymore…prepping us all for the next war. It’s not the answer. [Bob says it better](https://youtu.be/5y2FuDY6Q4M?si=nqrlsWpDpAxhe23I)

ESB1812

Won't know what they can really do, till they actually do some war fighting.

Mike_honchos_spread

https://youtu.be/z_QvSaayao4?si=c_j32F8h6672ba51

Habitual Linecrosser: USA vs China

twitchss13

These sorts of articles are hype articles for the military industrial complex, by touting raw numbers instead of anything in regards to actual technological or leadership quality. The Ukraine war has shown how badly relying on such information will turn out, and it is worse for China as they had not had to face serious peer war since they got wrecked by vietnam in 1979 trying to remove Ho CHi Minh for daring to stop the mindless slaughter in Cambodia after the Americans left Vietnam.

That said, the amphibious pivot is very true, and their demographics will start seriously declining by the end fo the decade due to the echoes of the one child policy. They will almost assuredly attack taiwan in the next few years, as soon as this year but likely in 2026 as it aligns with their 5 year planning system and Xi Jinpeng's capstone to his political career (plus he needs results as the Chinese people are not happy with post Covid china).

ManOf1000Usernames

Until they have highly trained operators, all that equipment are just targets.

SmileOk1306

But hey, we got non-woke “warfighters” and an alcoholic secdef. Tooooootally worth the cost

IcedCoffeeVoyager

PokeyDiesFirst

I'm not from America or China, but I think Americans have things we can't even imagine, while China only caught up with them on conventional weapons 

riquelm

Well all the military top generals etc have been fired. So who is going to lead the troops in a war let alone know strategic thinking. USA ‘s military is really screwed

Far_Out_6and_2

America's ruling class wants control of the world at the expense of everyone else, even if it means war, where millions of civilians could potentially die.

Odd-Current5616

I have a theory about which country will emerge as the next global superpower.



In the last century, the Spanish Flu originated in the United States—and over the following decades, the U.S. rose to dominate the world stage.



In this century, the COVID-19 pandemic began in China. If history echoes itself, perhaps China is on a similar trajectory toward global leadership.

DJBombba

Good thing we have all those black project anti-gravity alien reproduction vehicles! 

*Checks notes* 

They do too… Shit!

howmanyturtlesdeep

China is kicking ass currently on almost every front and Us is left playing the defense game. Banning and sanctions obviously wont work anymore. Just look at Huawei

AccomplishedMoney205

Why shouldn't a country with 1.4 billion people have more troops than the one with 1/4 the population? 


They haven't fought a war in close to 100 years. They don't have a worldwide network of military bases. 


At the same time, their pension and social welfare programs make the United States look like Sweden.....their pension is like $300usd a month and they literally don't even have rent controls, because the only thing middle class Chinese can invest in is apartment buildings with no tenants. No wonder they're seeing growing discontent as they try to be "modern" without allowing their people access to an uncensored internet.


And that's not even getting into how this new generation is going to provide for their baby boomers who were only allowed to have 1 child. 

Crocs_n_Glocks

I smell bullshit. China is still having difficulties producing aircraft carriers and ballistic subs.

I used to pray for times like these 🇨🇳🫡

malinuhhh47

I disagree with this statement. Until recently the military had competent officer corp despite reddit and common opinion. It had real experience with its own strategies and tactics something China doesn't have. China and Russia have been leveraging social media and intelligence forces to divide people. The biggest issue the US military has is the trump administration, where dictators are afraid of the military so they make them weak intentionally, and the lack of fit people. Many people are against the draft because it only targets men and not the whole populace, and their against it because of its use in Vietnam. The biggest concern is the internet

Future_Union_965

TLDR: China hasn't fought a war this century &amp; no one really knows if they're a paper tiger (but it's quite possible)

Nouseriously

Paper tiger until it’s not paper. That ABC is just a small demonstration of hidden strength. Don’t go looking for an enemy because you are bound to find one. Not everyone is a pushover. A lesson yet to be learned by a closet racist civilization that’s yet to reach 300 years.

KeirasOldSir

China does not have the XP the US has earned over the year. You can have the biggest military but if it never been in a war its inexperienced af.

Boobpocket

&gt; Today, the PLA boasts almost a million more troops than the United States and over a thousand more tanks.

Saddam had a bigger army then America and got lapped so badly in the Gulf War that America bombed the British as a side mission lmao. 

In the end, its all about Quality, not Quantity.

Steamed_Memes24

Deleter182AC

tradock69

So if we go to war, who's going to buy Chinese goods?

Charming-Medium4248

This couldn’t be more wrong on so many levels. 

On top of the fact that china hasn’t fought in a major conflict since 79 and pulled out in a month

They are barely holding their own nation together rn as is. 

And on top of that, there is virtually nothing known about how well their military vehicles actually perform. 

The Pakistanis have an air to air kill against a Rafael which is about 15 years older than the J20. 

They lost a sub to their own weapons and killed all 55 of the crew. So that with the fact their navy hasn’t been in combat for a long time either, well. Navy isn’t looking strong 

Their army hasn’t been in any major conflict for a long time either. 


So you have a bunch of Chinese young adults who’ve never seen war going up against a bunch of tried and true American soldiers, well. It’s gonna be mighty rough.

How much is Whinny the Pooh and the CCP paying you to post this garbage?

Designer-Travel4785

Just like our healthcare systems, the military forces taxpayers to overpay and then they under deliver.

CryptographerLow6772

BigJSunshine

Chidofu88

They have a B-2 bomber! A… bomber from the 1980s…

PorkeChopps

Over-Wait-8433

Yeah I have seen Chinese concrete and dry wall produced for rapid expansion….

VoiceofTruth7

SSP Outsider: "That all depends of if the Secret Space Program of China is close in tech/knowledge to Our SSP, and if you are saying this is a conspiracy then I'm saying the CIA's disnfo agents need a raise, but beyond that, China's surface military is not the issue." #Remember2034CME #MassETContactEvent #8.5YearsLeftOfTheOldGame

VictoryItchy6470

China has no ability to threaten anyone but their immediate neighbors. If we choose to fight them, we better be damn sure their neighbors are in a collation together to strike back. China can not take on that type of alliance.

Gitmfap

I’m not sure how well the Temu fighter jets they are rocking will be that effective. But yeah, not good.

Rucku5

&gt;PLA warplanes \****\*waste airframe life and fuel when they\*\**** enter Taiwan’s air defence identification zone more than 245 times a month, compared with fewer than 10 a month five years ago, according to Taiwan’s defence ministry. They also ***\*\*give valuable intelligence to other countries about their aircraft and seacraft signals, emissions and data when they\*\**** cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait 120 times a month, obliterating the once unofficial boundary.

There, I added some info. Yeah, China's a threat. But I'm learning that everything is a tradeoff, and between above and the brief India-Pakistan top gun shootout that just happened, I suspect we know a lot more about China's capabilities than we used to.

lavapig_love

The article is kind of misleading but not outright wrong. The Chinese navy does in fact have more ships than the US. But they have just over half the overall tonnage of the US. They currently have 3 operative aircraft carriers compared to the US's 11 (nimitz and Ford class). I will also point out the Chinese carriers are not nuclear powered. Their newest carrier under sea trials is nuclear powered and will make number 4 in the fleet.


China's destroyer fleet is currently 42 compared to the US's 73.


China is however almost caught up under the sea with 65 subs compared to the US's 68. 



While these numbers are public knowledge I'm sure there are other factors we need to acknowledge such as fleet readiness, armament, and experienced crews. 



The fact is, China is actively growing its military power and certainly looks like they're aiming it at the US... Taiwan will probably be the next major flash point. Currently the majority of advanced computer chips come from Taiwan (60% of all semi conductors, 90% of the most advanced) and losing control of that space to China would be a major upset across the world. TSMC makes most of those chips including high performance computing, smartphones, the Internet of Things (IoT), automotive, and digital consumer electronics. And with China's history of cyber crime and snooping you can be sure they will use that to their advantage.

alphatango308

It’s naive to think the US would always have an edge over China in their own backyard.

Baanditsz

…a million more troops they can’t actually transport anywhere they can’t walk.  A thousand more tanks that are outdated and can’t be transported anywhere they can’t drive.  More naval vessels, of even less value than the manned US fleet.  

China’s future strength is in the ability to produce more sUCAV’s than anyone else, to fire more guided ballistics and other missiles than anyone else, to field swarms of seafaring and aerial drones; that can overwhelm any navy on earth, by shear force of numbers.

ActivePeace33

It's a challenge yes but having a lot of ships isn't the same as having a lot of good and functional ships. The majority seem to not be able to function outside the South China Sea much past the first island chain. And the army/tanks ate an issue but getting them to Taiwan without being taken out first is an insane idea. Taiwan could knock out the majority before they made it halfway across the strait.  Combine that with the military purges of the most competent leaders and ongoing demographic collapse I'm much less worried about their dominance as I am containing them as they fall.

There are levels of irony and then there's the US losing their whole big dick vibe to China. Setup. Punchline. This is what it means when we say the world is a joke.

From a standpoint of pumping out ships? Yes. America does need to catch up. 


China will invade Taiwan at some point during Trump's term, because they know the US is divided and vulnerable under his rule. It will probably happen right in the middle the next presidential election for max chaos. 

Critical-General-659

China still doesn't have near the force projection capabilities we do. Can they drop a brigade of fully modern equipped infantry along with accompanying ODAs anywhere in the world within 18 hours? Do they have staged MEUs around the globe with a 24 hour response time to any shoreline?

hurtlocker82

Yea dude, this isn’t really true. You understand that the fact that we can project power over then entire pacific to deteriorate chinas war fighting capability vs. them having to invade like 40 miles of ocean.

The_Saladbar_

The difference between the US and China is, that the US has been involved in war non-stop. We know how to do war very well, China doesn’t have anywhere near the practice we have.

Stormsh7dow

I'm sure Secretary Whiskey Leaks is prepared for this!

KingMelray

If you don’t wreck their industey, they will pound you into submission with time no matter whose military is biggest in day one.

Larrynative20

There’s an incredible amount of obvious CCP propaganda on this platform.

Completely disagree. If China can’t compete with the US navy and air force it’s over. China will never beat the US in a real war. Especially if we’re about to spend a trillion dollars a year. 


I also doubt it would ever happen anyway. The reward vs the risk is far to great

Impressive_Owl5510

I mean they could lose 30 million single men in a war and the only repercussions would be a more balanced male to female ratio in China. 


They're probably gonna win any war someone starts with them.

Resident_Course_3342

There will not be a Sputnik moment. A lot of people will talk about said Sputnik moment, a lot of the usual suspects will grandstand about how the US is about to blast out and completely leave China in the dust usually supplemented by memes about the F-15, but then it will again splutter out into nothing as banal domestic politics and pointless self-harm once again predictably takes over.

dasCKD

I order to have a Sputnik moment we’d need to value science and academia again. We just “learned” that Tylenol “causes” autism yesterday. Idiots need to go back into hiding again if we want the nation to rise to some occasion. Good luck with that.

Gooch_Limdapl

So many "Sputnik" moments - Gen. Milley also mentioned about China's hypersonic program in 2021

BodybuilderOk3160

A "Sputnik moment" is not when you destroy US research universities, embolden enemies, withdraw from the International community, attack the principles of free speech that have made the US a vibrant culture for free thinkers, and make it almost impossible for foreign scientists and engineers to make  the US the global center of R&amp;D.

I dunno what the right word for this moment is.  It's not quite our Glasnost moment, or our "Crisis of the third Century."  But it seems like we'll get there, faster more aggressively and biglier than historical examples ever could!  Hopefully the recent business in Utah wasn't our "Archduke Ferdinand" moment.  But whatever this moment is, it ain't Sputnik.

wrosecrans

42WallabyStreet


Comment guidelines:

Please do:

    * Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles, 
    * Leave a submission statement that justifies the legitimacy or importance of what you are submitting,
    * Be polite and civil, curious not judgmental
    * Link to the article or source you are referring to,
    * Make it clear what your opinion is vs. what the source actually says,
    * Ask questions in the megathread, and not as a self post,
    * Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,
    * Write posts and comments with some decorum.

 Please do not:

    * Use memes, emojis or swearing excessively. This is not NCD,
    * Start fights with other commenters nor make it personal,
    * Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section,
    * Answer or respond directly to the title of an article,
    * Submit news updates, or procurement events/sales of defense equipment. Those belong in the MegaThread

    Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules. 
    
 Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, 
 leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.


*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CredibleDefense) if you have any questions or concerns.*

AutoModerator

&gt; Is there actually a reason to think or is it just sort of a vibe-based analysis? 

You have to look at who's saying these kinds of things. Because as far as I can tell, most of the ones who are coming out to say that China still has a long way to go and won't catch up anytime soon tend to be those who are outside of the defense industry looking in, and a bunch of OSINT enthusiasts who think that reading acquisition docs are the end all be all of the defense *industry*.

Meanwhile, pilots who deal with Chinese incursions on a day to day basis like u/tailhook91 and test pilots like u/foxthreefordale who are insiders looking out paint a picture that is much less rosy than what the average discourse is like.

Who cares if the PLAAF engine craps out after 1000 hours instead of 10,000 hours if they can replace those engines as needed due to the industrial capacity on hand to do so?

This is the fundamental problem stats counters and military fanboys have a hard time reconciling: it's not about how the platforms stack up against each other on a 1:1 basis. It's about how effectively the users operate them, how familiar the operators are with them, and how they allow their operators to achieve what they want to do as part of a greater system.

Are there areas where Chinese industry is definitely still behind? Sure. But you still have to ask: ***are they behind in a way that causes them to not be able to do what they intend to do?*** If the answer is no, then it makes very little difference that they are behind.

In other words: does it matter if my NBA team doesn't have a Lebron James when my team of 70% good enough players are able to exploit the weakness of the Lakers so that we come out on top *despite* Lebron's advantages?

This is both tangential and anecdotal, but I still think it is relevant to this discussion. 

I have worked as a scientist in the US defense industry and in US universities. In many areas, China is ahead in terms of science. They produce high quality work at an exceptional rate. For example, the first observation of the Quantum Anomalous Hall Effect (QAHE) was in China, the theory was developed by a Chinese scientist. Then, the first observation of the QAHE in an intrinsic magnetic topological insulator was in China.  I always worry that Chinese scientists will beat me to the next, newest result and they have in the past, twice. (In my experience, they do this by sacrificing any notion of work-life balance, mental health, or fair treatment of workers, but that's a different conversation.)

My feeling is that China is ahead of us in my field of quantum materials. There may be an exception for some groups in MIT, Berkeley, etc., but even then, it's so close. Especially considering that at top US universities the groups are often made up of Chinese nationals. I've worked in a US lab where I was the only one who wasn't a native Chinese speaker. Of course, these results are at least a decade from being integrated into defense systems, but if they are beating us to the first scientific result (TRL 1) then they have an advantage in beating us to the final implementation (TRL 9). 

One shred of hope is that physical science today is very much an investment of diminishing returns, so it's the worst time for them to pull ahead. Even small results take hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment, after millions in start-up costs. Then those results may never be useful. Compare this to the earlier ages of technology when the transistor, computer, and networks were made. Yes, they also were investments, but those investments paid huge dividends and created a technology moat of high-value businesses and products that will be challenging to overcome. That said, I still think it's only a matter of time. They passed us in manufacturing, in batteries, in solar panels, etc. it's only a matter of time until the moat we inherited is completely gone.

Pancurio

How do some of the posts on here pass the basic requirements of being credible defense? Like seriously, an unverified post about a schooner? 

The first mistake here is to take the commentary of a bunch of internet dwellers - especially those that don't even have basic understandings of military affairs, many of whom are just repeating things other equally uninformed people have stated - and taking that as gospel.

There are literally tens of thousands of analysts in the intelligence community - with a variety of backgrounds from hard sciences to engineering to whatever - who try to study and analyze China's capabilities. I'm talking *analysis* at the engineering level - we don't need to believe their claims, we can do the actual analysis to try and figure out what's true (see: NASIC's mission statement).

Sworn testimony on Congress by military leadership - as well as public unclassified reports from the DOD - all keep stating that China has made leaps and bounds in the past few decades, and is the very definition of the 'near-peer to peer' threat. We obviously don't want to highlight specific areas we are behind them on, but we've made it clear that they have done a lot to advance in a lot of areas.

If the flight of not one but two next generation demonstrators - over urban areas in broad daylight - of aircraft that don't resemble anythign we don't have wasn't a giant wakeup call to people that China is no longer just copying, but they are *innovating* and thinking on their own, then I don't know what will wake any of you guys up to wahts' been going on.

GTFErinyes

Many commentators imagine China as it was some decades ago: reliant on Russian and Western technologies, chock full of base manufacturing, and too poor to sustain a peer level military.

They have demonstrated that their corporations are not only capable of mass manufacturing, but are actually on the leading edge of many key technologies (batteries, AI, robotics {manufacturing and humanoid}). They have literally hundreds of times the shipbuilding capacity of the US, which is not a trivial capability to (re)develop. 

China has: begun to build advanced destroyers (055) and nuclear subs (093b) at a rate of one and two-three a year. They have flown two fully indigenous 5.5th gen demonstrators while building their 5th gen aircraft at an increasing rate. 

Imagining China as the smoggy third world factory nation it was 20 years ago does nothing for the United States and its allies.  

Every single year their capabilities increase magnitudes more than those of the US. Every year a Taiwan contingency becomes more and more balanced, to the point where in 5 years (past Xi’s 2027 deadline, I know) the US may not even see defense of the island as worth the cost.

chris_paul_fraud

Any country that is utilizing electricity at more than twice the level and, worse, whose demand is growing massively faster will eventually build better things.  It is just the nature of economics and evolution.  The USSR put up Sputnik first but the US's economy basically spent the Soviets to death over time.  The US role with China is a reverse of that with the USSR.
[https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/how-china-overtook-the-u-s-in-electricity-generation-capacity-and-consumption-65c592ee8bde](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/how-china-overtook-the-u-s-in-electricity-generation-capacity-and-consumption-65c592ee8bde)

Chindiggy

"A Chinese brain is just as good as an American one"  -Jack Ma

You would have to be brain dead if you believe China is very behind in NATO technology.

tldr, the technology difference is WW2 era Germany to WW2 era US the same way as modern day US is to modern day China.

edit: mind you, this is coming from a guy who believes that the CCP is complete dog shit and that Winnie the Pooh need to go.

catgirlloving

A big part I think comes from the fact that China remains extremely active in the world of intellectual property theft. Read: stealing technology. 

If they were on par, we would expect to see less emphasis on stealing western technology. If they were ahead, there wouldn't be much of a point to stealing western technology. 

Adding to this, we also know China is an authoritarian regime which has historically liked to make big exaggerated claims about its successes while never acknowledging it's failures. 

These things are difficult to quantify but I would argue that they form the backbone for this view on Chinese technological development. 

I will also say that it's a dangerous way of thinking. We run the risk of hand waving away very real Chinese threats because we think that they are inferior to what capabilities they claim to have. At what point has China properly caught up? Where are they ahead? At this point they definitely seem to be moving out of the "near-peer" category and just into "peer" in any kind of appreciable way. Sure, maybe their stealth composites are only 90% as good as an American equivalent. But they have them when 90% of the world doesn't. Sure they don't have combat experience, but they have an industrial base that puts the western world to shame. In as many ways as they're probably deficient, they also have advantages that we generally like to ignore.

notpoleonbonaparte

I don't think anyone without classified information can make a reasonable assessment. This is Reddit so if some Internet rando days their China osint surpasses Justin Bronk, I personally think it's fair to be skeptical. Given the amount of dunning Kruger on all subreddits, don't expect to change any minds. Enjoy a nice debate but don't take anything too seriously from either side

TSMonk617

It depends on what area you mean. But if we look at commercial stuff like C919 vs B737/A320 then China is a bit behind. SpaceX rockets landing also seems ahead of China. 

With secret stuff like 6 gen or submarines it's more a wild guess.

Suspicious_Loads

I have no special access to info, or special sources, but we do have plenty of open source information based on actual industry results.

Many sectors are dual use. We buy their products. So, we are quite aware of China's silicone industry or drone industry(for example) can produce. We can see at what scales they're doing it. That makes it easy to analyze their tech abilities as it relates to production at scale.

They're quite behind on Jet engine technologies. They're just now fielding the WS-15 engine, that they started on in the early 90's.  Their "gen 5" J-20 is powered by an engine, that was designed to meet the performance specifications of the Soviets AL-31 engine, which is a design from the 1970's. Which they struggled for 20 years to do. This information came from China themselves over the years of development, as well as marketing materials.

They're quite far behind the western world when it comes to high end computer chips. They're producing chips \~3-5yrs behind our tech, while completely reliant on western sources for nearly all of the equipment and materials that go into producing their best chips. They're working feverishly to solve that supply chain problem.  Its quite straight forward to assess their chip producing abilities when we sell them the equipment, and they're happy to sell us their chips.

Answering the question "Is their tech as good?" isn't nearly as important as asking if their tech abilities multiplied by their production capabilities is "good enough" to accomplish their specific military objectives. How good their aircraft carrier tech is relative to ours isn't a very important question if the conflict looks like "carrier killer missiles" vs carriers, as an example.  All the latest and greatest wiz-bang gizmos don't mean nearly as much, if you can't produce it at scale.

Asthenia5

The main advantage the U.S. has isn’t necessarily better technology, but in possessing force multipliers like overseas bases, allies, heavy airlift, AWACS, and aerial refueling.

Sulla-proconsul

There are ex-military personel explaining how airplanes are challenged before sales, and how china is still lagging behind thus not winning contracts. (and also how people try to get rid of Russia stock). Seemed a pretty straightforward and convincing argument.

agumonkey

The paper is paywalled but read this interview with Gilli &amp; Gilli:

[https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/andrea-and-mauro-gilli-on-why-china-cant-steal-its-way-to-military-technological-superiority/](https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/andrea-and-mauro-gilli-on-why-china-cant-steal-its-way-to-military-technological-superiority/)

spartansix

Yes. It's highly likely they are as America spends so much on defence and has decades of experience in this.... but ultimately who knows. China aren't slouches and trumps abandonment of Ukraine is driven...imo...cause the Chinese are alot stronger than maybe I and others give credit

bluecheese2040

I'll go a different direction than others in addressing the question. Both sides are evasive as to what the actual level of technology is on their top end aircraft.

However, I'd argue that the actual technological edge of X prototype vs Y prototype isn't relevant. China is behind in producing them, by their own numbers.

China has perhaps 300-400 combined J-20 and J-35 series aircraft produced. That is about 20/year. Lockheed-Martin has delivered more than 1100 F-35s in a similar timeframe, just under 60/year average. And we haven't even included the F-22 or B-21 counts, with the B-21 likely having some mission overlap with the J-20.

So, all in all, it is basically impossible for us to quantify exactly which group has the edge, but we can safely quantify that China isn't able to keep up with the production of their leading edge.

(if you want my vibes based opinion: even if we assume Chinese [or Russian] stealth tech is on par with US stealth tech, the aircraft themselves are larger, meaning a larger radar return, so we're back to "less stealthy" overall)

ScreamingVoid14

Building modern jet engines is really, really hard. I don't see any compelling reason they'll be able to snap their fingers and figure it out anytime soon.

-Hi-Reddit

I mean, if you look at the RCS of China's claimed 6th-gen fighter and notice that it's at least 4-10x larger than our oldest fifth generation fighter (the F-22, which started production in 2002 I think), that should be enough evidence anyone needs to take everything China claims with a grain of salt. They're not exactly known for being transparent and truthful in their claimed achievements.

Edit: And the fact that honest and reasonable assessments like this get downvoted with no rebuttal tells you exactly what you need to know about coming to Reddit for accurate information. This platform is way too easy to manipulate for in-depth analysis to be useful here.

slickweasel333

Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:

* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.

*****

* Is `english.nv.ua` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).

* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)

*****

**Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/ukraine-at-war-discussion**

*****

^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)


*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*

I could show you a bunch of hi tech Chinese shit in my drawer that doesn't work any more. Or never did.

Leeroyw11

The unveiling of China's new aircraft carrier, Fujian, demonstrates significant advancements in its naval capabilities, raising concerns among regional rivals.

China's Military Advancements

Why This Matters

Public Sentiment Summary

Highlighted Comments

Parties Involved

What the people want