The public is anxious and skeptical about Taiwan's political future and tensions with China. Concerns are centered around insufficient U.S. support, Taiwan's security, and global stability risks if China invades. While military escalation is doubted, the geopolitical risks and Taiwan's political identity challenges are widely acknowledged, with opinions favoring maintaining the status quo to avoid provoking China.

Taiwan

China

United States

Trump: "no new wars, and we won't protect our allies"

China: "alright then guess no one will stop our conquest then"

Talk about projecting strength....

RelativeCareless2192

America increases hostility toward Canada

I-love-to-h8

I very much doubt Trump will defend Taiwan. Won't Taiwan falling into the hands of China give Xi the only missing piece of technology he needs to beat the dark enlightenment AI bros in the ASI arms race? Do you think they would/could go to war with China for that? Are they competent enough to pull that off at all? With Pete Hegseth? They would lose the support of their base if they did that?

Downtown_Sink1744

The US isn’t willing to go up against Russia in Ukraine, there’s zero chance they’re going to do anything about China taking Taiwan except … ok well nothing

slower-is-faster

[deleted]

I may get labeled a nut for this, but there is a solid reason why the topic of uaps, drone incursions, and tax funded, black SAPs, have been a topic, to the point of public congressional and senate hearings.

China has had many great breakthroughs lately, especially in drones, ai, lasers, and a new record time set  in fusion energy.... almost as if they have successfully reverse engineered some tech.

Liltipsy6

This is what happens when USAID funding gets cut I guess, just posting a livestream link lol

chaoser

So nice to see the government’s fear-mongering is alive and well here in the States even as its propaganda and reputation begins to flounder all around the world.

China has no incentive to break the status quo. The only way China invades anytime soon is if the Taiwanese government somehow declares independence contrary to the wishes of its own populace, likely under the behest of influence from Washington itself.

FattyRiceball

This is classic saber rattling. 

America the country is like an American police officer. They see everything as a threat and therefore they shoot first, regardless of whether that action is justified. How many wars, conflicts, and counties has America destabilized in recent memory? China hasn't fired a bullet against another country since 1979.

Toasted_Sugar_Crunch

OP post history is unhinged af. Why still work like a slave when the USAID got cut?

allelitepieceofshit1

OP is a good example of what happens when you get brainwashed over and over with western propaganda. Americans and its puppets need to stop meddling in Asian affairs.

Don’t worry about what Taiwan will do, the people have always been allowed to choose how they want to be governed. If China was serious about taking over Taiwan by force, it would have done so already. 

Enough damage has already been done to Asia due to American interference.

Possible-Dot3964

there is a movement within taiwan to do just that. The problem is that declaring independence would probably trigger war with the mainland. While Taiwan is still the ROC, there’s a path to reunification (in theory).

Beautiful_Garage7797

Because, PRC won't like it. PRC prefers the current status quo, where Taiwan still officially consider themselves part of China. Even though by now most Taiwanese have developed a different identity, they cannot make that move.

Amazing-Row-5963

No Geopolitical support for it basically. I don’t know how the future is, but atleast during the Cold War, Kissinger saw China’s neutrality as a boon and endorsed cooperation with the PRC’s One China policy. US hasn’t reneged on it yet. But the relationship between the two have been fraught recently, I don’t know what US stance will be. Plus, KMT is still an opposition with significant hold and they are still pro “One-China policy”. And to top it off, they are not ready to fight a war should they declare independence.

neuroticnetworks1250

Taiwan depends on USA for defense. USA doesn’t want either side unilaterally changing the *status quo*. 

For example back in the early 2000s Chen Shuibian was pushing hard to replace the constitution Taiwan was using. That might have involved a name change or a new statement of borders. USA used a lot of diplomatic pressure and even made its displeasure public knowing that Taiwanese voters would be worried about USA support.

So on paper little has changed since the non-Taiwanese dictatorship lost power 30 years ago.

In practice though that map is nonsense. The Taiwanese government doesn’t actually claim all or even most of those territories. Taiwan has no desire to be “the legitimate government of China”. That was a dream of the non-Taiwanese dictatorship that oppressed Taiwan for 40 years. 

As you demonstrated with that nice map, Taiwan's official position is that it is a steadfast piece of the entire nation of China, and that it will eventually reunite with the mainland when it's prudent. The Taiwanese people themselves don't believe in any of that—they've been functionally independent for generations now and won't give up independence any time soon.

But from Beijing's perspective, "We're still part of China" *sounds* a lot better than "We're our own country now." A Taiwanese declaration of independence would make China very upset, which would make the US upset/scared, and suddenly we have a potential nuclear war on our hands. You can see why most people are alright with maintaining the status quo, in which Taiwan is independent in all but title.

Shmebber

Because China has a big military to stop that from happening.

SignificantDrawer374

The Myanmar part is slightly wrong btw

https://preview.redd.it/y6gi3fqocbke1.png?width=1280&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=38ed30c60f5bb35d77e0a792997759b80e80e337

AlexRator

Short answer; the one China policy. 
Long answer; the PRC has made clear that one of their red flags to invade Taiwan would be the Taiwanese declaring independence. By claiming to be the legitimate government of all of China, Taiwan doesn’t have to recognize the PRCs claim over Taiwan.

thesixfingerman

The CCP has said this would be cause for war.

Wild-Spare4672

Simply because taiwanese people would have more to lose than gain 

And other economies would also suffer

Practical-Plate-1873

Because then they would actually get recognized. Due to the whole 1 China thing, people can only recognize PRC OR ROC, not both.

Or be Bhutan and recognize neither

DankeSebVettel

Maybe they could have a decade or two ago.

But given the current US administration they need to draw no attention to themselves whatsoever.  Clearly the US would do nothing at all to help them defend from an attack right now.  Hell, it might bring Trump closer to China somehow.

I would bet the odds are less than 50% they survive Trump's presidency, honestly.  If China ever plans to take them the environment has never been better.

wpotman

Taipei can't declare independence without Beijing going to war with it; and Taiwan suffers greatly whatever the outcome.

Taipei can't choose to join under Beijing's control without China establishing a brutal control of the island like they did with Hong Kong - Taiwan would suffer greatly.

So they take the only road that keeps them mostly safe - a nebulous claim and status quo that doesn't wake a savage dragon.

Ragewind82

It would be end of Taiwan if they declared independence and US is not sufficiently ready.

OldAge6093

The ROC has not claimed authority or jurisdiction over the Mainland Area in decades. Since 1991, the government's authority has been limited to the "Taiwan Area". Areas outside of the Taiwan Area are outside of the jurisdiction and sovereignty of the ROC government.

The Taiwan Area is explicitly defined as "Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, and any other area under the effective control of the Government.".

[Then President Lee Teng-hui literally called these reforms his two country solution](https://www.roc-taiwan.org/sk_en/post/2331.html):

&gt;"The historical fact is that since the establishment of the Chinese communist regime in 1949, it has never ruled Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu -- the territories under our jurisdiction," he said.
&gt;
&gt;**Moreover, Lee said, amendments to the Constitution in 1991 designated cross-Taiwan Strait relations as a special state-to-state relationship.**


Here is the official World Map from the ROC government... Taiwan and China are all separate: https://nsp.tcd.gov.tw/ngis/

As far as declaring independence... we don't need to declare independence. Taiwan, officially called the Republic of China, is already a sovereign and independent country.

Eclipsed830

Taiwanese speaking, there are currently many political movements trying to do that. They are a relatively new trend because the DPP (current ruling party). DPP supports “Taiwan Independence”, but there are two kinds of “Independence” ideas among its supporters: the mainstream one is trying to make the international community acknowledge that Taiwan is not part of PRC; the other one being more extreme, wanting to completely abolish the current government of “Republic of China” and create a new “Republic of Taiwan”, whose supporters would also give up all the claims in the mainland.

Now, it’s not to say that the DPP is still passionate about those claims in the mainland, in fact, very few people in Taiwan (especially the younger age) really care about those claims. However, the thing is that no matter what, the current government is still officially “Republic of China”, and most Taiwanese still acknowledges this. Abolishing those claims means a drastic change to the current government system, and could greatly damage the legitimacy of the existence of “Republic of China” government

The current government in Taiwan still functions under “Republic of China”, which has to have at least some claims to China for its legitimacy of existence (or else there will be no need for a “Republic of China”). The population (mostly) still agree with the flag of “Republic of China”, and abolishing all those claims feels unnecessary to the public—there’s no hurt in keeping those claims

The Republic of China needs those claims for its legitimacy

TLDR:

The current government and the public doesn’t want the “Republic of China” to just, die. There’s no good in that

Those claims in mainland helps the legitimacy of ROC’s existence 

The DPP consider ROC and PRC to be two separated countries, and Taiwan belongs to ROC, not PRC

There are some groups of political movement trying to completely abolish the ROC government, creating a new “Republic of Taiwan”, but it’s not really a mainstream

And most importantly, very few Taiwanese care about those claims. To us, it seems harmless for keeping those claims, they don’t have any impact on our daily lives until something big really happens in China. And if something big really happened, keeping those claims would be better

Unlikely-Pin-8027

They'd prefer defacto independence rather than confrontational Independence. (or losing)

The middle in Taiwan wants it to stay as it is. It doesn't suck now and the struggles from 80 years ago are...80 years ago.

Who knows what'll happen without  clear leadership and commitment from Washington, however.

hokeyphenokey

This is like some EU4 claims, when you take one province from a major power and release it and then say "dont worry little one, we will get back everything they took from you (then I will integrate you)."

maxinfet

Because they wouldn't gain much from it. The main problem they have is the PRC and its power. 

Even if they drop their claims, the PRC still claims Taiwan as their territory and won't change their policy with them.

ProFailing

This is the funny thing: China doesn’t allow them to, they wanted to drop it but China says if you drop them we will invade, because that would be trying to separate Taiwan from China.

JackReedTheSyndie

Beside triggering hostilities with PRC like others mentioned, it's also never a good idea to rescind claims unless you have a lot to gain.

Hypothetically, if the PRC ever collapsed,even if it happened hundreds of years from now, then the ROC could use the instability to assert their claims.

TheRMF

KANEGAMER365

There are a number of these territorial claims that are objectively false but countries still technically stick to it.

For example, North Korea and South Korea both believe that the full Korean peninsula is theirs. Cyprus thinks it owns the whole island. Venezuela believes it owns a big part of Guyana.

I've heard Mainland China's attitude towards Taiwan compared to America's attitude towards the Second Amendment. There are enough powerful people who feel so strongly about it that there is just no room for meaningful reform.

If Taiwan tries to change the status quo, it will provoke a war. Hell, even if they just sit there without constantly investing in their defense, it will provoke a war eventually. The Mainland sees Taiwan as unfinished business, and not the kind they're going to forget about someday either.

faceintheblue

that will cause war. the reason why PRC didn't attack Taiwan is because Taiwan also claims itself as China, they know (Taiwan) their claim of these territories is a BS and they can't take them, but they use this claim to hold stats quo and avoid war.

right now, Taiwan is an Island that is being controlled by China's past government, the Republic of China and the mainland China is under control of Communists.  it is basically in the "frozen civil war" status.

UN actually offered Taiwan and Chiang Kai-shek a separate seat and at that time mainland China was extremely weak and it was possible. but he rejected it, hoping that he will take over the mainland China one day.

right now, this is impossible. People's Republic of China is a superpower, they won't let Taiwan to get independence. they have massive influence in UN.

Alternator24

Because why would they? It’s not gonna change anything except antagonize China.

Dead_Optics

Dothemath2

Ironically, because that would upset mainland China. China has so far been tolerant of Taiwan's independent government because Taiwan's government sees themselves as China's legitimate government. Because of this, Taiwan has a hard time receiving international recognition and it leaves open the door for the eventual return of Taiwan to the mainland. If Taiwan were to drop their claims as the legitimate Chinese government and establish their nation around a Taiwanese identity, rather than Chinese, this would undermine mainland China's claim to the island and they would probably resort to more drastic actions to take back the island.

CrimsonEagle124

How can Taiwan declare independence if they never believed to be part of the PRC? They believe to be the remnants of what was China before Communist China existed. Taiwan (ROC) has always been independent.

classicpoison

Don’t forget the 9 dash line, it’s was a ROC thing and inherited by both.

CreepyDepartment5509

Only country in the world that would love to drop territorial claims but pressured not to by the actual administrator of the territory and the international community because that would amount to a declaration of independence

realtorfirer

Magar007

Taiwan has also been arguing about this issue for a long time, but China has warned Taiwan that if Taiwan gives up its claim to Chinese territory, it will be regarded as an act of launching Taiwan independence and will lead to a war between China and Taiwan.

fishdrea

People here seem to forget that the second largest party in Taiwan is the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) it’s not just a matter of the PRC invading if Taiwan shredders their claims. Half of the Taiwan political sphere are still Chinese nationalists that want the country to remain being China. They just don’t want to be part of the PRC.

SovKom98

Simple—the PRC would immediately force unification if Taiwan declared independence.

There’s even legislation in place to provide legal justification for this scenario: the Anti-Secession Law (反分裂国家法).

Ithanes

The other side threatens us with a war if we do that, they call it “achieving Taiwanese independence by legal means”. You will find some Taiwanese that claim china is theirs, and those are some 80 year old veteran that are soon to be extinct. No one with a right mind thinks like that anymore

sussynun

I can't even lol. Why are they even claiming us(Mongolia) in the territory. Like, i know we were kinda colony of manchus, but so were you mfs.

GzSaruul

these plebs still think Mongolia is China. Taiwan is Chinese not Mongolia

Idruu

It’s crazy scrolling reddit and seeing your own map on the feed, felt kinda good.

ZappyZym

I am Taiwanese. What I can say is that this map has long gone from schools and other public places. The problem is the constitution and pressure from China and  the states.

RealisticGuess1196

China is going to invade Taiwan if the latter decides to discard the ROC constitution to drop all of its territorial claims in mainland China and I hope that Taiwan won't do this anytime soon for obvious reasons.

Joseph20102011

Map is false, ROC doesn’t dispute PRC’s land borders. The Mainland Area is the PRC as it is. Where did you get this map?

According to the 1991 constitution the Mainland Area is national territory under a separate administration. The ROC government is by and for the Taiwan Area. So there’s no “claim” to drop. It is more like allowing the mainland to also call itself Chinese.

diffidentblockhead

PRC claims all that same land, minus Tuva, Mongolia, &amp; the Russian Heilongjiang/Amur area. if the Taiwanese stop claiming Arunachal Pradesh &amp; parts of Kashmir, it is not like PRC will stop it’s claims of the same territory.

kosovohoe

Because the world is scared of their true power if they manage to reclaim Tuva!

SebVettelstappen

Almost as ridiculous as Palestine claiming parts of Israel. There comes a time where you need to admit you lost.

ArtemisRifle

tylertrey

Because Mainland China has big guns and more than a billion people.

pkpy1005

They have effectively have already done that, in terms of how the nation comports itself and how it functions in reality...but they do not want to have a confrontation with the mainland for as long as possible. Officially declaring independence will not be seen as a good thing by the CCP, and may even trigger an invasion. How likely that scenario is, well it's hotly debated to say the least. Still, "better play it safe" has been the general mindset in Taiwan for the last few decades.

Lamb_or_Beast

You forgot Russian Manchuria and half of Korea

NTLuck

Because the PRC won't renounce its claim in Taiwan.

nwbrown

**MISSING: Outer Manchuria 外满洲** 

Outer Manchuria was a traditional part of China and was grabbed by Russia in the mid-1800s.

Fun Fact: The POC have been very active in making claims about Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea and other areas that they claim were all part of traditional China but they are very silent on Outer Manchuria 外满洲

Bob_Spud

Others have already explained pretty well why Taiwan won’t do this, just to add even more context, China wants to keep Taiwan as “the republic of China” so badly to legitimize its claims over Taiwan that there was genuine threats made that if Taiwan changed its passport to say “Taiwan” instead of “republic of china”, China would invade. Instead, the government made the word “Taiwan” big and in the center of the passport and put “republic of China” in Chinese above that in smaller font.

Tatm24

Revolution-Rayleigh

The world belongs to Taiwan. We're just administering it.

a_slip_of_the_rung

quirkquote

tyrell_vonspliff

I would think that dropping Mongolia for an alliance makes sense, but political revanchism will get in the way.

IncreaseLatte

Tardisk92313

redheaded_stepc

It think the greater worlds ignorance on this, is the issue. It’s not just about the island of Taiwan. It’s about the wider area represented in this map. 

Notice that the Taiwanese government doesn’t refer to themselves Taiwan, they call themselves the Republic of China. A direct linage to the country which was overthrown in the 1920s by the communist regime. 

They feel (rightly or wrongly) that this whole area is still their land. And they won’t drop these claims or claim independence because they don’t believe that they already aren’t independent and are the real Chinese government . 

It’s about political ideology , it’s significantly more complex than just saying the island is an independent country. That won’t in itself stop the CCP wanting Taiwan. It’s a game played by both sides.

Bob-down-under

https://preview.redd.it/fzj50ry9peke1.jpeg?width=1066&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=a7185f42637a89a7ce42402eb8ccc0747af11f00

robinescue

Taiwan declaring independence would have absolutely no effect on its international recognition. Why would it? I don't understand your thought process here whatsoever, Taiwanese recognition isn't based on Taiwanese actions but on the PRCs stance on the matter, which wouldn't be affected by a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan.

Taiwanese independence would have exactly one major consequence, an invasion from the mainland. And there is no scenario in which that is the better choice compared to the status quo that works for all parties involved.

V-o-i-d-v

There are a few electoral groups in Taiwan. Only one of them is pro declaring independence.

Aldebaran135

modernhippy72

Because China and Taiwan came to an understanding of “one China, diffrent governments” a while ago (it had always been the default state of conditions but never a diplomatic stance per se until later) and thus Taiwan declaring independence would be viewed as highly provocative by China (though if that matters now under Xi who knows, he would likely invade anyhow).

spinosaurs70

Because of the kmt opposition. And they do have (near) majority of votes.

sh1a0m1nb

And in the event that Taiwan busts out their secret *Wunderwaffe* and takes out the PRC, they would in all likelihood revise their territorial claims.

TritonJohn54

Tldr answer: it's a pain in the ass to amend the constitution in our country, especially when one of the two main party is basically CCP proxy now

infinitsai

That will basically mean for Taiwan that they lost their revolution. In their opinion they are the legitimate China and mainland China belongs to them, only that 99% of countries in the world don‘t agree to that. So sure they can declare „independence“ but from who? According to themselves they are Independent and the rest of China belongs to them.

Katzo9

I believe Taiwan dropped its claims on Mongolia a while back but never on the Russian territory, so they claim an exclave in Russia (Tuva)

Hayaw061

It is unlikely to achieve anything. At best, CCP China shrugs and says the government on the Island does not have that authority. At worst, war.


So why go down that road?

Novat1993

The government of Taiwan genuinely thinks all of this should be theirs ?!? That's news to me. That seems so ridiculous to me. I thought China was bad for ruling over regions that don't want to be China, but Taiwan wants to take Mongolia too?!

JAJE202

They sort of already have, Since the transition to democracy and the predominance of the independence-oriented Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) over the KMT (the party that fought the communists in mainland China and then ruled Taiwan as a one-party state until 1987) Taiwan has effectively dropped any claim to the mainland both politically and in terms of how they think fof themselves as a nation. They don't claim it in any official publications and generally, just avoid mentioning it.

It hasn't been a part of Taiwan's foreign policy ([When did the ROC abandon “Retaking the Mainland”? The transformation of military strategy in Taiwan](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24761028.2021.1904599)) for decades, and Taiwanese national identity has moved firmly away from any sort of "Chinese" identity ([::: ::: Taiwanese / Chinese Identity(1992/06\~2024/12)](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&amp;id=6961)) and as many have already pointed out an official declaration of independence would likely trigger an invasion.

So for now Taiwan already exists as an independent nation and has no desire at a political or social level for any further integration. ([Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland(1994/12\~2024/12)](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&amp;id=6963) and they know better than anyone the consequences of pressing the issue.

I think overall the rest of the world severely overestimates how much real estate the question of independence take's up in the mind of your average Taiwanese citizen or politician, for them its simply a non-issue.

loadinginteligenc

Because it would most likely trigger a war with China and possibly lead to a war between China and America at minimum (especially since the State Department just dropped the language on its Taiwan page stating the United States does not support Taiwanese independence) and WW3 at worst.

Stylishbutitsillegal

It's counterintuitive but the PRC wants the ROC to continue claiming their own land! Nobody in Taiwan actually believes in that map, it's a political fiction.

Basically, the PRC views itself as the rightful successor to the ROC, and the ROC government in Taiwan as some sort of wayward branch that has not yet come back into the fold. As long as the ROC continues to have its old claims it continues to be the same ROC that the PRC claims to descend from. The moment they update things to match reality then they're not "a wayward branch of our government" but rather "a new government that is squatting on our island". Or something like that. It's a lot of games of perception.

Manishearth

alansludge

Real Taiwanese here (😱)

Usually only really old people or right-leaning accept the whole mainland claim. The vast majority of people already know that Taiwan is its own country. It is like Russia using the claim that there are “n@zis” in Ukraine to invade the country, however in our case they use the old mainland claims as justification. 

Us Taiwanese already understand that we are an  independent country—we have our own language, culture, currency, embassies, industries, etc.

So what is there to declare independence from? We are already free, we can only hope that the rest of the world can recognize that. It’s only political theatre at this point, and by coming out and saying it you risk the lives of tens of millions of people.

CompetitiveBunch1049

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Deterrence is in everyone's interest. A permissive environment where China is free to consider invading Taiwan would be very bad not just for the Taiwanese, who would be slaughtered, but also the supply of computers chips which the global economy is dependent on.

Additionally, China's control of Taiwan would poke a hole in the US's strategic control of the Pacific. Every other island would also be under threat of Chinese invasion, further disrupting trade.

The only thing keeping China from seriously considering an invasion is the threat that the US would immediately get involved. The only thing keeping the global economy stable is US's hegemonic influence. The US does that through deterrence via global military projection.

monjoe

Just a brief point to clarify.  If one larger country uses military force to take another country, it is an invasion, not a "unification.""

mathpat

"Taiwan’s Value to the U.S. and Global Economy

The economic value of Taiwan to global supply chains for semiconductors and other CETs is immense. By one estimate, Taiwan fabricates nearly a third of the globe’s computing capacity each year, and U.S. companies and consumers are among the leading beneficiaries of direct and indirect trade with Taiwan’s chip sector. As mentioned, Taiwanese semiconductor companies underpinned the growth of the U.S. digital economy. This applies not only to U.S. fabless chip designers but also to U.S. companies relying on data centers, networking equipment, and other digital infrastructure, as well as any electronic systems or inputs—a vast landscape that includes e-commerce and social media giants, telecommunications companies, automakers and other manufacturers, and the entire U.S. software-as-a-service (SaaS) ecosystem.

In other words, Taiwan’s chip industry is inextricably linked to the health of U.S. industries as wide ranging as smartphones, computers, automotives, 5G, and medical equipment. This interdependency means that trade with Taiwanese semiconductor companies provides significant, hard-to-quantify knock-on benefits for the U.S. economy. According to an August 2024 report by the Congressional Research Service, Taiwan is the eighth-largest source of U.S. imports ($44 billion) and the tenth-largest U.S. export market ($40 billion), and Taiwanese exports to the United States grew 100 percent from 2018 to 2022. Direct trade statistics also underestimate interdependence: a 2022 estimate of Taiwanese supply chain relationships also showed that “23,100 U.S. companies buy directly from Taiwanese suppliers at tier-1, while more than 112,500 buy indirectly at tier-2, and over 237,500 at tier-3.” Investment also closely links the United States and Taiwan. In 2023, U.S. direct investment stock in Taiwan was $19.3 billion, while Taiwan’s direct investment stock in the United States was $15.6 billion."


The big issue is that so much of our technology is dependent on them.  China getting control could be devastating to our economy and severely hinder our technological advantages. The best solution for us is to bring more and more of these kind of manufacturing processes and supply chains back to, or closer to, the United States, but, unfortunately we don'tsell to be making fast enough progress. 

I dont disagree with you that a war would be catastrophic, but Taiwan is very important to us, we are in a bad position. Hopefully, all of this will remain posturing instead of actually escalating into an actual war. At this point, i don't think China is ready to escalate into a war, but you never really know with them.

johngalt504

So as an actual veteran of war and spent 22 years in the armed services. Let me throw a curve ball into the conversation. Killing 400 million people. 

One concern of the US is the Taiwan doomsday plan for China. If Taiwan feels they are going to lose they have a non nuclear deterrent that scares the hell out of me. Destroying the three gorges damn with cruise missiles. The release of water could kill 400 million people making it 4-8 times all the people that died in WW2. This is a very real threat no one wants to talk about on either side. 

The US is very aware of this and very concerned because if we let Taiwan fall 1/3 of China could be killed and the geo political and geo strategic consequences are impossible to calculate. 

As for the economic impact if we got to the window in 2027 we would see the build up of personnel in China and most of the key people would move out of Taiwan and the factories would be sabotaged. So taking it for China would be a pyrrhic victory at best. Not to mention the millions of casualties on both sides, billions to trillions in equipment and economic damage. 

I have faith that the Chinese would not be that myopic. My belief is they will use social engineering, economic pressure and other non military methods to try to take over Taiwan assuming they even still want it.

truemore45

"Why die for Poland?"

Collective security stops wars and there is nothing liberal about throwing small nations to the wolves

CFSCFjr

Agree with OP. If the U.S. proceeds to take over Greenland, and there is some merit for that (at least taking over the northern 2/3), we can't very well insist that China should leave Taiwan alone.

2020: [Geopolitical Competition in The Arctic Circle](https://hir.harvard.edu/the-arctic-circle/)




&gt;As the Arctic's treacherous polar ice caps melt away, nations have begun to engage in a modern gold rush over the region’s unclaimed territory, natural resources, and strategic position...The United States, Russia, and China are the primary nations competing for control of the Arctic’s resources....potentially...the escalation of a great power conflict...

The U.S. holding northern Greenland is important in this context.

GullibleAntelope

Why is it that the fear must always be that China/Russia/etc will launch nukes? 

How about we reverse this and tell China "Either give up Taiwan or we kill 1 billion Chinese in a nuclear holocaust". Why is there only agency given to those not of the US?

How about we make Xi Jinping think long and hard before attempting to invade if it is worth Beijing, Shenzhen, Hongkong, and other cities going up in mushroom clouds?

ArcanePariah

China is actively genociding the Uighurs and Tibetans. Their belt and road initiative keeps developing countries dependent on China while lowering labor and environmental standards there. And China is an authoritarian one-party regime that is not accountable to its people. (See: Hong Kong on why liberty cannot be tolerated.)

The US no doubt does bad things and enables bad things. But now the end of US hegemony is giving license to a far greater level of violence.

You should position yourself strongly with regional allies including Taiwan to dissuade China from ever actually using their military to try take Taiwan.

The reality is that they can’t take Taiwan and it’s quite sore for them hence they use it more for political purposes instead of genuinely considering an invasion.

We also couldn’t afford loosing an ally like Taiwan considering their chip industry and its global implications.

As for nukes, if you understand the Innate concept of self preservation…then MAD is a perfect policy that ensures neither side would ever genuinely engage in nuclear war.

NoResponsibility6552

It would be difficult to confront China while making a land grab in Greenland, Canada, and Panama. So, given the current administrative IQ, it is possible that the US is not capable of carrying out a defense of Taiwan.

What will probably happen is that China will make its land grab when the US does.

OsakaWilson

The Chinese Army and Air Force can be ignored. China can’t really invade Taiwan and the US Air Force is way more powerful. 

The Chinese Navy is a close second so that may be a problem but that’s only assuming the US goes alone. A more likely scenario is a NATO East Asian Naval force which would probably be enough. 

Chinese nukes are a deterrent sure, but it goes the other way too. American nukes would deter China as much as vice-versa. Not to mention Taiwan already has a “nuclear option” where they blow up the Three Gorge Dam. 

This is a pretty uphill battle for China, our allies are numerous and strong while China has many enemies. It wouldn’t be as daunting of a task you set to be. 

I believe it’s in our best interest to deter China from attacking by defending and ensuring our ally. Alliances are only as good as the word, if we show out word isn’t true then might as well throw it out the window. Not to mention TSMC and the Taiwanese microchip industry.

Polandnotreal

Taiwan faces political turbulence under President Lai Ching-te amid escalating tensions with China, affecting regional stability and international relations.

Taiwan Political Tensions and China Relations 2025

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