The discourse on the China-Taiwan tensions reveals a deeply divided public sentiment, characterized by anxiety, skepticism, and support. Many advocates express strong support for Taiwan's independence and urge international solidarity, particularly from the US, despite skepticism about geopolitical manipulation. Concerns about a potential conflict and its disastrous global impact, especially given Taiwan's technological significance, are widespread. Criticisms target Western intervention efforts, perceived media sensationalism, and China's aggressive postures. A notable undercurrent is fear of Taiwan becoming a pawn in superpower rivalries, echoing sentiments surrounding Ukraine.

China

Taiwan

United States

International Allies

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Though I'm no fan of Pelosi, I will say the Western countries needed to send some high ranking officials to visit Taiwan to show solidarity with another democracy and if she does it that shows some grit.

I know money is why the US decided to swap to this one China policy 40 something years ago, but doing so turned their backs on the Taiwanese.

The Chinese and their island building in the South China sea is another concern.

Cliff_Dibble

[deleted]

After what happened in Ukraine when Crimea was annexed, and then in Afghanistan when the US withdrew, we need to either fish or cut bait.

The western democracies need to either stand up and show China that we support an independent Taiwan, or we need to bail.  Showing weakness just encourages China.  

The worst thing is the message castigating Speaker Pelosi sends.  China in particular is looking at how the US responds to things like this and figure out, correctly I might add, that the US is so divided they can work that as part of their strategy.  

If the US government intends on helping Taiwan, we need to be a monolith for Democracy.  Phrases like "I disagree with Pelosi, but I support the free people of Taiwan" should be the worst complaints by Republicans about her trip.  Several minority reps from the US government should be making follow up trips specifically for the 'state's interests but in realty to show that all Americans support Taiwan.

Anything else is weakness, and China will exploit that.

tosser1579

It does and the fact that China is making this huge of a fuss over it just shows how important it is.

Kah-Neth

Peace through strength, yes. China clearly wants to take Taiwan back. By standing up to them, we send a clear message that we will not sit by and let that happen.

This was the right move.

I think it’s a very complex situation. On the one hand, the US needs to send a strong message to Beijing that we will not tolerate encroachment on Taiwan. This is more important now due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Beijing is likely feeling emboldened by the West’s response (or lack thereof) to the situation there. I don’t think China would be silly enough to take a military action while Pelosi is there, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried in the near future. Pelosi going there is the diplomatic approach to reassuring Taipei that the US is not done with the TRA, despite the ‘79 shift to Beijing. 

That said, it is also slightly reckless given Beijing’s threats. It is likely all saber rattling, but I don’t think WWIII would be particularly fun for any of us. 

All in all, I support Pelosi going there and the US relations with Taiwan as a whole. The war in Ukraine has proven it absolutely necessary to take such actions for liberal democracies around the world to continue to thrive.

People always despise USA for interfering in other countries affairs but what about China? China tries to intimidate all it's neighbour countries. So, we need a bully to deal with another bully and US is doing that work absolutely fine.

Annonymous_7

&gt; \[assuming it makes it worse in the short run\]?

That's an unwarranted assumption. You wouldn't know how high the nationalist xenophobia has been burning if you don't read Chinese. Pelosi's visit has provided a rare window for the calmer voices to connect with each other about how disruptive a war would be, and for the insane voices to realize the infeasibility of a war. It has extinguished the fire. 

&gt; There is also a danger that live fire drill is likely to cross-over Taiwan straits that would make the Taiwanese react and could lead to an escalation; if so, how should the US. react?

Taiwan will not react because the drill will not cause any damage. Announcing the areas and times of a live fire drill is a signal for Taiwan to evacuate those areas at those times, so that the drill will prop up domestic legitimacy without causing escalation. The announced drill is artillery, so there is barely worry of an accumulation of troops. Let the PLA enjoy their cosplay, they know full well they cannot afford an invasion.

Gu_Ming

Have a gander at the Chinese internet and you will see the extreme disappointment of the Chinese government's failure to deliver through its highly aggressive tones. Xi personally promised to unify and this year is his time to renewed for the indefinite third term. It only goes to show that the Chinese government is nothing but a ruling dynasty that cares only of its own interest and will abandon jingoistic calls should the aristocratic interests be damaged. No provocation will make China move, because it knows it's not ready for war, yet it is also uncontrollably greedy for the nationalist tunes it can sing in face of any international event.

So yea, the US can pretty much pass whatever laws on Taiwan it likes and China wouldnt flinch an eye because it has no "red line".

E: took out unification deadline

Alexanderlavski

Her visit is destabilizing the Status Quo.

If the US and Taiwan want to define Status Quo as the US can officially send #3 ranking politicians to Taiwan at will in order to push the envelope of Status Quo towards de jure Independence;  then China will push the envelope of Status Quo towards unification by crossing various territorial boundaries at will.

So the USA probed China politically, now China is probing the USA politically.

Depends on what outcome the US is looking for.  If the US wants Taiwan to be de jure independence, then it will have to challenge China's new Status Quo of being able to blockade Taiwan at will.  If US is looking to maintain Status Quo, them descaltion would be prudent.

China is very intertwine with the world economy so even though posters on Reddit seek military conflict, it could be messier than the current US-Russia conflict in Ukraine.

East-Deal1439

Ignore Chinese saber rattling. Starting to sound like Russia, telling other sovereign countries what they can or can not do.

Artistic_Ad_1083

China does a bunch of saber rattling like North Korea, but there will be nothing more than that. They've done the same with Japan and South Korea in recent years.  They are using this media frenzy to distract from recent dire economic news in regards to a a flat GDP, rising unemployment, and a housing market in shambles.

One thing most Dems and Republicans can agree on is we need to stand up for democracies and allies like Taiwan.  No more letting China set the conditions and bullying their neighbors.

CoherentPanda

I was paying attention to the details, here are things I can report:

* The 2022 August exercise exceeded 1996 in both scope and severity. In 1996, two US carrier groups entered the strait of Taiwan to stop it. In 2022, I do not expect any US military show up. This alone reflected the reality of a major power shift since 1996
* One of the most important issue in China/Taiwan relation is not to send any military or military drill cross the center line (median line) of the strait. It appears the new drills intentionally violated that rule. It is safe to say this time will set a precedence for the future
* One particular item in the firing drill is to attack ocean east of Taiwan, this is where we all expect US carriers will show up in a war. So the gesture is very clear

My own evaluation is the Pelosi visit greatly accelerated the military solution, and reduced most of the vagueness in China/Taiwan relation. Now all sides are preparing for war, and Taiwan is being squeezed further not only militarily but also economically. A trade boycott, which was unthinkable in the past, is now being carried out step by step. In less than a day we saw three announcements of trade boycott of taiwan goods, this is unprecedented. It is forcing Taiwan closer to surrender if they do not want (military or trade) war.

What's really telling is the Taiwan government has been quiet about China/Taiwan relation for more than a week. The usually loud-mouth foreign minister so far had not made a single word in public.

This is the CCP sabre rattling in an attempt to test the resolve of the US in regards to Taiwan.  If America blinks like it did in Afghanistan, or if it wavers like it has in Ukraine with a lack of total commitment, then Xi knows he's essentially got carte blanche to invade and seize Taiwan's manufacturing sector, which would be the single greatest move the CCP has to shore up it's faltering economy and have a solid foundation of worldwide economic hegemony.

At that point, the CCP would basically have surpassed the West in regards to the influence of the world, because any country that fails to show them fealty will find their access to the highest tier electronics sharply curtailed.

Honestly, I'm surprised that Pelosi actually went there; I expected her to bow out with some cockamamie cover story so she could attempt to play both ends, and these exercises would be a real invasion at that point... but she didn't.  I'll give credit where credit's due, and state that for once, Pelosi and the Democrats actually showed they had stones on the world stage.

Took them two years, but better late than never.

Now, however, they need to show resolve and continue to call the CCP's bluff, because if they do, it'll humiliate Xi and show his military to be a paper tiger.  They need the threat to do the work of the real, because if they were to be stupid enough to launch an overt attack that put American forces and officials in peril, the US would have to respond militarily.

The problem for China is that unlike the US or the EU, their manufacturing capability is focused on one or two cities, not spread out over the countryside, so a couple well-placed attacks would render their economic capability nil, and the already mounting problems within their borders would probably be enough to make them utterly collapse.

That's why they need Taiwan:  it'd be the plunder that would keep them afloat and maintain the illusion that they're strong.

For the first time in probably a decade, I'm sincerely going to hope the Democrats pull this off like professionals.

LabTech41

Seems to be just giving china an international law-friendly license to initiate violent acts over Taiwan- is it not?

Possible-Sky-5805

The moment the United States is intimidated enough by China to not have a representative travel somewhere…is when the rest of the world should be worried.

Typical_Ad_9635

China is being observed by all the world.  Every act, every strategy, every move of their pawn pieces.  They are the main actors, and all of the rest of us are observing, recording, planning.  If they display a show of force, we have all learned one more play in their playbook.   The big answer doesn't come from China.  The big answer comes from Taiwan.  Is Taiwan another Aghanistan, unwilling to compete for a "nation"?  Or instead, is Taiwan a Ukraine, a Democracy willing to fight to the death against all odds for its sovereignty?  Pelosi's visit is necessary to help make that determination.

Homechicken42

Absolutely not, it’s a useless moral grandstanding from a country who’s democracy is in deep trouble. You want to help Taiwan, share military IP. Taiwanese can make their own defenses. The indigenous fighter is a joke.

killerweeee

Does not matter. It’s Taiwan’s choice to have her there or not. They wanted her there and she wanted to go. I think they know what they are doing.

Fit_Platform8133

If this doesn’t lead to an escalation I think it makes Taiwan safer. It shows we are actually committed to them and hopefully more so thankful we are committed to Ukraine. 

As someone who leans more conservative this is the first time in a long time that I can unequivocally say I fully approve of what the democrats are doing here. No if’s ands or buts about it.

SteelmanINC

Her visit probably will harm Taiwan in the short and long term and isn't the point of the visit. US foreign policy is geared towards near peers and so her visit has everything to do with intelligence gathering regarding China and positioning the US in terms of its foreign policy towards China.

This can be seen as a mixed message. "Yes we support Taiwan" on one hand and "we support the One China policy" on the other. This leaves actual US interests ambiguous while escalating tensions with a near peer the US seeks to undermine.

AHelplessKitten

Every action has an equal opposite reaction, She being there enforces the idea of a independent Taiwan, so China must show that he is still in control. This symbol or recognition makes nothing more than shake things up and escalate things, at the end it's pointless, just makes China even more uneasy and probably more aggresive in the future.

Emryz-2000

I personally think it speeds up China’s attempts at taking it over again. Think about it, China already knows how much money the US is shelling out in support of Ukraine. China also knows that if they begin an invasion that the US will then start shelling out money to support Taiwan. Even if they have no intention of winning, they would still fuck over the US by forcing them to spend billions on 2 separate wars on 2 fronts. People are more concerned about China launching a war against the US when that really isn’t their style. They know the only way to truly damage the United States is financially and it would crush our economy.

JBDanes12

Pelosi will throw us into ww3 if she can find a way to line her husbands pockets…

danimalDE

The biggest impact of her visit is not her visit, it is China's response.  Unlike Russia, who is led by a cult of personality surrounding Putin, China is led by a machine that is the Chinese Communist Party.  They went with their traditional playbook of making veiled threats of war and destruction if the visit happened as if that response would not be their choice.  Pelosi just called their bluff in a very public way and I don't think they saw that coming.  So their options are to fire on the sitting Speaker the House and start a war with the U.S. that, no matter how divided are country is, would unify the country around an unprovoked and violent act of war or backtrack from their threats and do something that everyone outside of the pentagon and Washington DC bureaucrats considers to be nothing.

I am normally very critical of Pelosi and the dems, but this was played well.  I also kind of see this as a bit of turning point in Chinese thinking with respect to perceived slights against their power and autonomy that don't have any real world impact.  They are now balancing the inevitable fallout from the war with the fact they don't really gain much from it and may lose it.  China is now so powerful, and that power is so generally accepted (or at least tolerated) around the world that it need not worry about whether this act will weaken its standing.  It still has to respond in someway but it no longer needs to treat it like a threat to Beijing or a precursor to a U.S.-backed civil war in China.

When have we had a president that did not involve us in a conflict with direct military action?

And how long does this current one have to do so?

(send in Pelosi)

OfficialRodgerJachim

[Thomas Friedman and Robert Wright argue it was wrong for at least two reasons: don’t poke the panda, which is 1/5 of humanity, unless it’s a move in some grander strategy. Keep kicking the can down the road and don’t bring things to an ahead. Secondly, don’t take your eyes off Russia in Ukraine. Don’t give China reasons to help Russia out.](https://youtu.be/CQTPEX-wlVc)

Rozo1209

I'm so sick of all the autocrats maintaining the never ending problems. North Korea, China, Russia, the middle east. Does no one what to leave a better more peaceful world to the next generation?? 

North Korea -Easy to topple, let it be absorbed by the south.
Russia - Why is Putin still alive? Any attempt to move a nuke would be carpet bombed into oblivion.
China - We allow them to prosper by buying their crap. I would cut them off from all first world markets and make the Russian sanctions look like childs play if they don't live and let live.
The Middle East - The US will not support, in any way, any country not actively seeking or maintaining peace with it's neighbors. 
The US will supply and/or fight for any sovereign nation invaded by another. Iran wouldn't need a nuke of we were willing to come to their potential defense.

wordscollector

Was this really worth Pelosi making a little trip that serves no purpose other than to antagonize another nuclear power?

OneReportersOpinion

Ah. So china will be the ones to kick off ww3?

ThrowAwayGarbage82

Anyone that is truly qualified to talk about this topic would keeping their knowledge close to their heart. 

Based on what I understand though, there would be an immense logistical challenge to secretly amass an army that would be ready cross the Taiwan straight. So it is likely that Taiwan and allies would know that it is imminent.

There are other considerations related to economy, population curve, nationalism, natural resources, etc. that would make it difficult to know how the CCP would position themselves

TrDx

Long term is hard to predict but I can tell you that there isn’t a sudden invasion happening next week. There would be a lot of warning before something like that would happen. There is no travel warning for Taiwan currently. It is safe to travel here. Enjoy the trip!

MukdenMan

What I’ve found is that people outside of Taiwan are more concerned about the attack than the people I talk to IN Taiwan.  People are just going about their life and don’t feel like it’s as imminent as it’s made out to be from the outside. (This could also be just my extended family)

I’m not sure if it’s just years of the same, complacency, or news hyping things up.

tazzy531

No one knows what goes on in that clown's mind. It's impossible to know if and when an authoritarian will start an unprovoked aggression. Putin has shown as much.

As for the opportune moment, China would have absolutely no reason to do anything right now. All their efforts are focused on manipulating the local presidential election. The recent conflicts also inadvertently put China under a lot more scrutiny. So a 'while everyone is distracted' doesn't really apply to China here.

Anxious_Plum_5818

There is no state department advisory so I wouldn’t worry about it.

Its not like the Hamas raid that caught folks by surprise.

At best the PRC can make a massive roll of the dice and go for a decapitation strike with missiles and a small airborne force.  

Thats just not likely even with Xi because the odds of success are really really low and the repercussions really really high.  

You’re more like run into a natural disaster than a surprise Chinese attack.

Finally, the US 7th Fleet isnt dealing with anything in the middle east.  We have the 5th fleet for that.  The Ford is in the 6th fleet which is the Europe/Africa fleet so its sitting in the eastern med to remind Hezbollah that there is a “find out” phase in warfare.

In case you’re wondering:

https://news.usni.org/2023/10/10/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-10-2023

Half the US navy is in the pacific…59 of 96 deployed ships are in the 7th Fleet.

vinean

China currently has enough problems of their own to attack Taiwan.

Sill_Dill

No need to worry. The US and China are de-escalating. It will be WWIII should China attack Taiwan.

kaisear

Little to none. Open source intelligence does not point to any force build up by PRC to invade the island. Also I can imagine how unpopular it will be if there is no right pretext for the mainland to launch a military campaign.

If we see "terrorist" attacks in the mainland then I would be more concerned.

Lots of posturing in the Taiwan straight and West Philippine Sea, but that's about it for now. 

American forces have a strong base positioned in Korea, Japan, and now the Philippines so this is a good deterrent for now.

supernormalnorm

This isn’t something anyone can predict. But know that the Taiwan strait has some rough seas, especially in the winter, so mounting a massive sea invasion during winter months is not optimal to say the least.

thelostewok

Hmmmm...starting a war before an election?  That would definitely guarantee a DPP win and that's the last thing the PRC wants to do. It's really low...

Successful_Toe_4537

When war is about to happen, it’s obvious. Russia amazing troops and supplies near the enemy border. You can’t hide this from satélite 
 imagery. 

China right now is definitely preparing for sanctions though. So I wouldn’t bet on them never invading. Once you see China having an actual TSMC replacement, I would be very worried for war.

I_will_delete_myself

Your visit should be safe. The preparation of lauching an attack will take weeks. Quickly get detected from eyes, ears above space.

If Xie leaves I would say Twn would be left alone not to get stepped all over. The problem is he wants to prove he is better than Mao.  In 1950, China mobilized over 1m soliders building boats preparing to attack Twn.  Twn had no leader then.  The acting president of ROC fled to NJ. Truman, a democrat did not offer to assist. He wanted Twn to be left on its own. Now, Biden, a democrat who followed Republican stance in giving Twn the support needed. Nancy's visit gave boost to the Twn citizens that there is hope. Also Jpn National Defense is very supportative of Twn government.  With a more pro US Marcos governement at least they look all together forming a chain.

Vast_Cricket

the-tigs

I was in Ukraine prior to the war. 100% Sign up for the STEP program - the embassy will call you directly if they suspect something is gonna happen. They called me Jan 25th 2022 and advised that I leave.

https://step.state.gov/STEPMobile/Default.aspx

That said, a war of the scale needed to take Taiwan by force will not happen without warning

lmneozoo

The PLA haven’t even practiced in amphibious landing. Until that happens, I’m not worried.

pontics

Regardless of your political opinions and whether you think a conflict will happen, there are things you can do to protect yourself and your family, and make the island more resilient to anything that might come our way.

I am talking about emergency preparedness. American are well versed in it, and I am always amazed how little Taiwanese know about it.

This is also useful for natural disasters, earthquakes, pandemics, car accidents, and so many situations. 
Educating yourself about what you need at home to cover your basic needs can at best save your life, and at least make it a lot more comfortable in a bad situation. Don’t take my word for it, and check these pages from the CDC, red cross and one of the most known preparedness community online:

https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/features/hurricanepreparedness/index.html?cid=EPRhomepage

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies.html

https://theprepared.com/prepping-basics/guides/emergency-preparedness-checklist-prepping-beginners/



In case you think this is complete overkill and none of this will ever happen or affect you, let me tell you what happened to me recently:
The water tank of my building broke, it was on the roof and flooded the elevators. It had to be replaced and the whole building did not have water for a month. It took 2 weeks to fix one of the elevators. Some people from 18th floor had to take the stairs to get water. Fortunately I had my water supply at home and my family could get by though most of this with it. I only had to get water after the elevator was fixed. For a family of 4, including shower toilet and drinking water, we’re talking 25L water a day, although we could probably make-do with half of this.

That’s something that could happen to anyone.

Lolrami101

Everyone in Taiwan lives in a geological, meteorological, and geopolitical tinderbox. Being prepared should be your number one priority. 

Stock up on dry food, water, and medical supplies/kits. Stock up and be trained in the usage of tourniquets, chest seals, and basic first aid. Get shovels and pick axes to be able to dig through rubble. Get heavy-duty backpacks and duffle bags to be able to carry said supplies.  

If one disagrees and thinks all will be ok, then one is absolutely delusional to reality, and that’s a fact. It’s not a matter of if. It’s when a destructive event will happen; be it a super typhoon, a mega earthquake, or Xi’s suddenly worried about his legacy before he dies.

All my in-laws live in Taiwan, and I have a lot of friends there in Taiwan. All of them have begun or already have completed basic preparations for the worse-case scenario. Those who live or lived in California (earthquakes) and Florida (hurricanes) can attest to ensuring one’s household is prepared. Taiwan has both AND a crazy bully of a neighbor. Those are three major reasons to be prepared no matter what.

Also, tell everyone to do such basic disaster preparations now, and communicate meeting spots with your loved ones. An entire neighborhood with supplies and basic first-aid can help each other out, and relieve the strain on public emergency services; and most importantly, significantly curb casualty rates.

DanTMWTMP

If you're traveling with your family and you're really worried about this kind of thing, then check your country's state department travel advisory...don't ask a bunch of ding-dongs on Reddit, jfc.  You could also watch the news and get a feel for what's going on in the country, come on man.

Muhammad_WangSmith

I am pretty sure the attack is the imminent. But I'm just a random internet stranger. I know American Admirals have claimed the earliest China can invade is 2027 because that is when their navy will be large enough to transport their land forces but I guess they finished 3 years early. Honestly man, no one knows. It's not like the people of Israel knew they were going to be attacked. The people of Ukraine saw a massive build up of forces for about a month or two. China will need to invade Taiwan with even more forces than Russia used so many analysts believe it will be impossible for China to hide this build up. The amount of supplies and personnel will be enormous. So you are honestly fine and when you land on this beautiful island, you will realize no one in Taiwan is paying attention to when China will invade. Western media pays way more attention to it and loves to bring it up.

Raggenn

I'm in your same situation. Keep an eye on elections. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything crazy and try to push for independence from the mainland I would feel safe.
The only problem is that I couldn't get a feel of how crazy they could possibly get. Are there a lot of hot-heads who are looking to start another war in this period?

Rhianna87

Believed to happen in 2027 but nobody really knows.

Kohomologia

The best war is winning without a war… only the stupid actually go to war

Weary-Depth-1118

When is your expected date of arrival?
How long is your stay? If it’s two weeks then it won’t happen in the next two weeks. If it’s a month, it won’t happen in a month either.

flauntes

wickyb123

Nice to know we have something lined up for 2023.

jandaman7

The invasion on Taiwan would need to be an invasion in comparable scope to D-Day to have any chance of success. That truly isn’t an exaggeration. It’s essentially a gargantuan natural sea fortress. It isn’t impregnable but the military build up would need to be truly awesome. Like with Russia the accumulation of men and material would be so big you cannot hide it. 

I think perhaps Taiwan has gotten complacent through decades of US support. They have not funded the military to the level it should be and they reduced times for national service. They assume the Americans will bail them out. The Americans prefer ambiguity as a strategic deterrence. 

Once enough chip manufacturing gets built in Europe and the US it may reduce the geopolitical arithmetic. Right now if Taiwan fell the majority of worldwide chip manufacturing would be Chinese. Other factor is China would be the decisive power in the China sea and project its power into the same sea and regain big control over shipping lanes. China are playing a long game similar to Hong Kong. War will probably happen but it will be when the US is weak or extremely distracted with other problems.

yellowbai

Time to invest into EU-China relationship and tie our economy to China as much as we can!

Quick-Scarcity7564

We should support Taiwan, but it's likely that the lesson from Russia hasn't been learned yet. Don't make ties and try and have economic relations with authoritarian countries which hate everything you stand for and just want to subvert you

zxcv1992

Did we get a discount code on war or something ?

Ierax29

My wife is Taiwanese and she and her family and friends always joke on where the three bombs fall if China wants to conquer Taiwan. IIRC they are three locations, one is their powerplant in the north, the mountainpass in the east (watersupply IIRC) and the chipfactories. It's such common knowledge over there they laugh about it over dinner.

It will never lead to this though, let alone them storming the beaches. This is just a barking dog, again. If Taiwan ever re-joins China it's through the political 'communist but not communist'-party which tends to be quite popular with the youth from what my wife tells me (since it promises jobs and money from China).

Royta15

the west needs to have already started pulling out of china, the writing is on the wall.......why keep funding their eventual war machine?

rangerxt

&gt;“In the event of a military invasion, we have made it very clear that the EU, with the United States and its allies, will impose similar or even greater measures than we have now taken against Russia,” the EU’s incoming ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo, said earlier this month.
  
I totally agree with this policy and like the appointment, Toledo doesn't seem like an appeaser at all. 

It seemed like the EU would never stand up for Taiwan. Feels like we're finally on the right path.

Apprehensive-Soil-47

are chinese thinking that europe will accept another chip shortage with current energy crisis. i bet Taiwan has plans for the demolition of the chip factories if west Taiwan manages to invade

xeico

Lol this makes the EU sound so pathetic. What are they bracing for? Another stern warning from china to the USA?

I see a lot of people talking about Taiwan chips, but it doesn't make any sense  
  
The Taiwan issue is a military and political issue. Whether Taiwan can return to the mainland is related to the ruling legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Under this premise, Taiwan chips are as unimportant as Taiwan fruits

Believe me, if China were open to universal suffrage, people would definitely elect a president who promises to attack Taiwan as soon as he takes office

Similar_Nebula5549

And here we have another argument for European unity. You like being thwarted between to superpowers? No? Then stop the nationalistic bullshit that'll make all us poorer in the end.

ProfessorHeronarty

In the long run, this is not a war China can win.  They're resource dependant on sea-lanes.

Assume they take out Guam and Okinawa and a couple carriers in a first strike.  Soooo, it's on.

The US denies sea access with assets well outside Chinese range (Straits of Malaca et.al.), China runs out of fuel in a few months, and goes bankrupt from lack of trade.  They can't even feed themselves, for crying out loud - they import a lot of food, even before you count Chinese fishing fleets (no longer an option, everything gets seized).  The US has bombers that can penetrate Chinese airspace, so critical Chinese assets aren't safe no matter how far from shore.

They can't protect critical supply lines or infrastructure, it's over.  Or it goes nuclear, which really isn't winning.

nvkylebrown

What if China's game plan is to make all these threats, do flyovers over Taiwan airspace, making everyone think they will invade, then the other countries establish chip manufacturing facilities to replace what might be destroyed in a takeover of Taiwan, then when those facilities are finished, Taiwan will not be valuable to the world anymore, then China can just walk right in and take over, because nobody will care about Taiwan anymore because they will have nothing valuable to defend anymore?

Hi_This_Is_God_777

Europe benefits greatly from the post WW2 world order built on international trade. Yes, Western Europe lost its colonies, but the economic benefits of a global order when the trade routes are open for everyone and everyone ca treader with everyone are far greater than that of having colonies. Germany is benefiting a lot from it, and Eastern European countries which manufacture for the German industry benefit from it along with Germany. 

This world order benefits also China, but for some reason they seem to want to return to mercantilism. They seem to want to have the cake abd eat the cake.

We, as  Europe need to make it clear that the current world order is beneficial to both China and Europe and we would prefer China to see as a country supporting the Bretton Woods system, and we will oppose trying to destroy this system and taking over Taiwan is an action against the Bretton Woods system.

bjornbamse

So we could get the trifecta of Russia-Ukraine, Serbia-Kosovo and China-Taiwan within the one year?

2022 season of Earth is certainly interesting

MrTuxedo1

Xi would be stupid to start a conflict when 100k civilians are in the middle of revolting over their mortgage. 
He’d have to kill them to quell the uprising. Mandate of Heaven is a bitch! 

Until the CCP deals with that they aren’t starting a war with anyone.

honorbound93

I still think this is all a distraction from rising prices and living standars going down.

Best way to force people in to submission so they dont revolt against you is of they inforce state of emergency so they have full control on our movements.

Just my 2 cents. Hope no war happens and Ukraine manages to pull out from claws of Russia as well as all countries around the world from their invaders.

Not to spread panic but there are more then 1 countries still beeing invaded except Ukraine.

Dimenzije90

Bro this is going to be a crazy decade. 
If only people in 2020 knew that COVID was just the start.

nigel_pow

China will not invade Taiwan now, unless they are stupid. The way Ukraine war has gone where there was an expectation that the mighty Russian military would take over Ukraine in two weeks, Chinese strategists must be thinking if they should make their moves towards Taiwan now or not. Sanctions did not hurt Russia much for now. In the long run it will. However, sanctions against China will cause them to collapse and disappear in no time. They do not have resources to export. They export manufactured goods and everything for them comes from outside. They are already struggling with bank fraud crisis, Housing market crisis, Covid shut downs, power shortage and a huge demographic collapse due to their stupid one child policy. If they decide to take over Taiwan under these circumstances, they will fall apart very quickly. I think most of what they are projecting to the outside world is fake. Their high speed train network cost them close to 1 trillion in loss. I feel sorry for the ordinary Chinese people. They will truly welcome the overthrow of their communist tyrants if a collapse can help. I think China will play it safe by attacking India. But that tool will not do any good for them because India will hit them back.

Seeker_00860

No bracing is needed, China is making the same threats for decades now

IndependenceNo2874

SHITBLAST3000

[China has been saying this shit literally every year in hopes of intimidating the west into letting them conquer and destroy as they please. ](https://youtu.be/cFxnCssrvl0)

They are not far from north Korea levels of "Pay attention to me! I have power! Fear me!" Complete with shifting to an isolationist hermit state. Why do people keep giving them the attention? China doesn't want war with the west, not directly. They know damn well they are not equipped to deal with that, especially after seeing their co-conspirator Russia fall flat on its face against inexperienced and under equipped Ukrainian locals who Russia thought they would conquer in literally days. China is more capable than Russia no doubt but even their newest super carriers are technologically a couple decades behind the wests warships. The US has the most powerful Navy in the world, it's literally the foundation of our military with bases stationed everywhere specifically so that our Marines can deploy literally anywhere in the world within 24hrs and our Marines(as badass as they may be) are not our heaviest hitters anymore and the US Army has really ramped up its capabilities since the beginning of the wars in the middle east making our Army every bit of a powerhouse our Marines are. Our airforce is not our only aerial experts as our Naval Aviators come from places like Top Gun(which is a real academy and legendary in its own right).

My point is China knows it isn't equipped to fight the US much less the US plus all our allies. They wouldn't go nuclear unless they were already in direct open war with the West AND in the process of losing fast and hard. Basically they won't go nuclear unless they have already tried everything else and those options failed.

BurnerTyphon

What do you expect him to say? "No it's hopeless, we'll all die and fail miserably?"

Regardless of whatever he actually believes, regardless of whether it's actually the truth, he has to say it.

teethgrindingache

Nothing gets this sub harder and more roaring to go than hypothetical Taiwan invasion scenarios

ass_pineapples

PacificCod

The US commander in chief have said he has 6 in golf handicap too.

Suspicious_Loads

leeyiankun

In a conventional conflict? US doesn't have the industrial capacity and everyone knows it.

When was the last time a lesser industrial power won a war against a greater industrial power in an all out conflict?

jz187

Sure, that tracks. Its always been more of a question of commitment and desire than actual capability.

angriest_man_alive

Unfortunately, their hybrid warfare subversive forces will likely be effective.

look at what Russia has been able to accomplish

CA_vv

What if ‘all Americans’ don't want to make an effort?

I've never seen Americans give themselves up for another country.

bjran8888

If China and US go to war it will cost trillions not billions, is Taiwan really worth it?

Captainirishy

What's the last war that the United States won (mostly) on its own?

RKO36

Low_M_H

Source: 


https://www.youtube.com/live/RXtAqeQGho8?feature=shared

lion342

Escalating military tensions between China and Taiwan involve large-scale exercises by China, increasing regional insecurity and drawing international scrutiny.

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