Public sentiment towards the Israel-Iran conflict is overwhelmingly critical, particularly of Western leaders, especially the G7, with widespread accusations of hypocrisy and double standards regarding military actions and nuclear policies. The discourse reflects significant support for Iran's right to self-defense, calls for peace, and frustration over the humanitarian toll of ongoing hostilities. Viewers express a mix of fear, outrage, and a desire for accountability and justice, alongside a yearning for understanding amidst complex geopolitical maneuvers.

G7 Nations

Israeli Government

Iranian Leadership

Empires rise , empires fall.
It is a foolish thing to think history will change for any favorites.

Full_Manner3957

There won’t be a world war 3, unfortunately, the zionists will continue to be funded by America, no one will want to help Iran because it will mean a direct challenge to America. The same old unfair horrible world that is out there will continue for as long as someone can’t challenge America militarily, which is quite some time. The best we can hope for is trump gets booted and the next person to take over isn’t as chained to the Zionists as the rest of them. Until then, the poor people of Palestine and the Middle East with suffer.

Captain1copy

US Intel very recently said Iran is years away from building any nuclear warheads and putting them on a missile.


This is absolute BS and manipulation by the violent netantahooo of the orange clown. One weak man conning another. Both with very unhappy constituents. 


Wake tf up US people!!!!!

FucklberryFinn

The world has been teetering on a Third World War for years.  In less than 6 months 1 man has managed to destroy all progress made and put the entire world into a position of instability.  We should all be afraid.  It is unfamiliar territory for most of us.  Don't group all world leaders together in this.  There is only ONE "leader" that needs to be addressed.  Donald Trump needs to be held accountable NOW!

True-Put-3712

Is there any G20 run by a competent leader? All I see is clowns running the show. We've truly reached unprecedented levels of a leadership crisis. At this point, we'd be so much better off making Greta benevolent dictator of the security council

they_them_us_we

How about we stoip Israel? Some of us have been saying that Israel needs to be stopped for 2 years now. How about we do that?

Rightricket

Who is "we" and what are you actually going to do?

Own_Thing_4364

Israel attacks Iran state media in the middle of a broadcast 


https://youtu.be/_V6ga29n-lA?si=rZUU_kMkpuBZ-ojS

Infamous-Willow-8120

i dont believe ww3 will start with this conflict... nobody will back iran... not even russia is doing anything, because theyre being roughed up in ukraine already and everybody knows the us will step in if push comes to shove for israel...

tagalog100

Some here think Iran is the biggest problem for having a network of “terror”. Sure I don’t like mullahs or Hamas but US/Israel toppled Bashar al Assad only to install a former Isis mercenary. No one is trying to create some elusive “liberal democracy” in ME. I’d argue even the US is not a democracy at this point with its corrupt political system. idk enough about Israel but IIUC Netanyahu has less than 30% public support

Also the Iran situation best be dealt with diplomatically. What they are doing (trying to turn Iran into Libya) is not gonna work and will only accelerate Iran and everyone else towards a nuke bomb. The US gave up on fighting the Houthis because it was becoming too expensive and distracting them from China. idk what the plan is here if there is any.

All this retarded strategy is designed by the Israel lobby paid for by the western (mainly American) tax dollars and currently spent on killing Israelis and Iranians. It’s messed up on so many levels. Whoever is cheering it is not very smart to put it mildly.

CrowdSourcer

US and Isreal are toast if China and Russia join in. Just on sheer scale of numbers.

CL60dude

The UN have demonstrated that they are a tool of global tyranny and should not be taken seriously.

BECOMING_A_TURTLE

I don't really see the complexity here.  Israel is committing genocide and just attacked Iran.

ButterRolla

Wasn't Iran in talks and the israelis decided to derail things?

Roo10011

War is inevitable. As much as i don’t want world war III we have to close our hearts and hope for the best. It’s a kind of cycle.

Tall-Cheetah8086

For this to become WWIII, there would have to be at least one country willing to go fight on behalf of Iran. At present, not even Hezbollah is volunteering.

JeruTz

If you're looking for leadership, you won't find it at the UN.

Alpharious9

Do you know that WWII developed specifically *because* of appeasement. And you're proposing appeasing an evil regime *again*?

magnus_equanimus

The only way this spills out into WW3 is if anybody actually came to the defence of Iran. This is why the IDF went for Hamas/Hezbollah/waited for Syria to fall before moving on Iran - they now stand alone in the region  


The IRGC has been such a persistent nuclear and proxy-war instigator in the region that the cost benefit analysis of its "'allies"' coming to save it is growing increasingly *against* the IRGC's favour


Edit: If you side with the nation that's been helping the Houthis in Yemen to pointlessly rocketing civilian ships, I've got a bridge to sell you...

RadicalCandle

SlippySausageSlapper

Honestly I wouldn’t worry to much about there being any nuclear war between Israel and Iran.

I mean yes there maybe strikes and removal of military assets but neither side is in any hurry to attempt an invasion of the other.

Both sides know exactly what would happen to their own countries and have very good reasons not to want that.

My worry is that Putin will though, and the fact it was him would cause others to press the nuclear button as well.

Responsible_Brain269

This was the perfect time for Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapon capabilities. Russia, their ally, is too busy in Ukraine. China doesn’t want to escalate in their future invasion of Taiwan. The Iranian government is evil and needs to be replaced!

Bassist57

No mention of Israel from op. Blatantly biased. Not worth engaging with.

swallowmoths

Ancient-Watch-1191

There will not be a WWIII due to the Iran/Israel conflict. If there is a new world war, it will be if Russia attacks NATO and war simultaneously breaks out in the south China sea and some third theatre.

stafdude

As UN totally fail in Ukraine war where we are witnessing all kind of atrocities, how it could be without any changes, better now in another conflict.

MidMyst

You people need to understand that the Islamic regime is a barbaric regime that terrorizes its own citizens. They cannot be trusted on the global stage and will bide their time to strike if given another opportunity to survive. They must be toppled and a new government must be formed. I say this as an Iranian. Stop giving our oppressors life. It’s been nearly 50 years. That’s ENOUGH.

nu1stunna

Hard to prevent WWIII when there's a country in Middle East bombarding/invading 6 countries at the same time.

2k_x2

Why? Why should we prevent it? Two barbaric religious regimes going toe-to-toe. They can bomb each other back to the bronze age as far as I am concerned. It's where they both belong.

degorolls

And why isn't this about the war in ukrain?

Effective_Jury4363

Not much chance of this developing into a larger global conflict. Houthis may continue to target shipping, and launch rockets/drones towards Israel, but it doubtful this will develop into a larger conflict. 

China may condemn the action, but even China wants the Iranian market to be open and would not mind a regimen change. Russia has given Iran the pat on the back and good luck with that shrug. Syria is no longer Iran friendly. KSA, Oman, UAE and Kuwait are silently rooting for Israel. Azerbaijan and Turkey would sell arms to whoever is buying.very little chance this will spark WWIII.

DownRangeDistillery

What World War III. Iran is all alone and going down in flames fast.

Simple_Map_1852

LOL @ the meaningless platitudes.

Real talk:

War is a fundamental facet of human interaction.  We have elements of selfish opportunism which conflict with objective equality between people, never mind the selfish opportunism of others.  War is just the way of finding out the real distribution of power between groups who do not share intra-social restraints.

Iran wants to murder all Jews because Iranians are brown Muslims and they closer group with the Palestinians who are also brown Muslims.  In elevating the Palestinians above the Jews, they believe they elevate themselves.  Now, as Jews do not want to be murdered, this sets a fundamental conflict between the two groups.  (and as the Palestinians also want to murder the Jews, there's the same fundamental conflict there as well.)  Now, the Jews do not seem to exhibit a desire to kill Iranians and Palestinians because they are not Jews (selfish opportunism), their issue appears to be the lack of fundamental equality in their being murdered while the Iranians and Palestinians get to go on living after having murdered them.  In order to actualize the equality of living, they are at the very least roped into the necessity of removing the Iranian and Palestinian means of murder.

The basis of this conflict is quite limited.  Israel is not the avatar of white Western imperialism, and the brown Muslim countries largely don't see Iran as being the avatar of brown Islam fighting white Western imperialism.  It's a regional tiff, not the start of World War III.

DominionSeraph

It’s not a “situation”. Israel attacked Iran….unprovoked. It also attacked Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, West Bank. It has been acting with total impunity for decades, protected by the US and Europe. Now we reap what we sow.

AgitatedCoast896

Failure of the USA to control the situation.

SilasBeit

Lol how are they going to achieve that ?? The UN is possibly the single most useless organisation on earth possibly even the galaxy or nearby galaxy cluster / super cluster.

edson2000

You say we as if we had any say in the matter

MrDukeSilver_

They say it’s about the regime change. Ok great, but I think the issue goes deeper than just regime change. The core problem is the systemic control imposed on Iran from both inside and outside regardless of who’s in power. Even if the current regime is replaced, history shows that in 50 years we may face the same problems again. Just look at the pattern: constant foreign interference, suppression of progress, and internal division. Iranians are being kept in the dark, distracted with superficial issues while the country’s potential remains untapped. Ethnic divisions, poverty, political infighting, and economic hardship are all used as tools to prevent true development. Until we address the broader structures of control both domestic and external real change won’t happen, no matter who’s in charge.

Beginning-Frame7679

We must stop it so Reddit community doesn't die, we are satisfied with little conflicts far away we all somehow benefit so we can chill around, comment and look smart. 🤓

waddajuker2

rscosmos

Getting rid of the Iranian regime would be good for the whole world.

Hot-Brilliant-6807

Yes, there are too many crazed dictators with bombastic rhetoric that is incompatible with the world peace and harmony. If those dictators obtain effective means of caring out their threats, the very survival of the targets of their threats becomes uncertain.

It becomes doubly uncertain, if those dictatorships have a history of not just words but actions against their targets with whether means were available to them before.

No wonder that a sense of self-preservation would cause the targets of the threats to take action to prevent the dictatorship from obtaining the means of annihilation -- by striking to destroy the means of annihilation or to destroy the dictatorship itself.

Fun_Lunch_4922

Just let them fight it out. We see Israel's defense capabilities and we might have the Iranian regime finally fall. Everything works fine

Jinwu9

How would it be world war 3? WW3 would only happen if China &amp; Russia joined Iran in armed struggle against the West, but this won’t happen - they’ll continue their struggle using propaganda and misinformation, nothing else - they’ll hope they can make our nations dissolve from the inside

China has never had an effective military that is battle tested and rigorously trained and they never will - the party would fear a well trained army to depose of their leadership.

EbbNervous1361

Trump said "I had it, then we go blow up all the sites.., their all over the place"... read what you will out of that non coherent statement.

vasquca1

zionistXL

Neither Israel nor Iran are equipped for a  land war in each other's territory.
  
Stay off the misinformation and disinformation factories like TikTok and reddit

ManOfLaBook

Sure, on the population on GDP. I was just going off the top of my head from a few years back when I looked into this stuff. Looks like the projections for China’s GDP were off and lower than last time I checked. 

It’s not only combat experience (which is a massive advantage), but it is also the fact that the US military has actually shown what it can do and from insane distances (not directly on surrounding waters). To me, the NBA comparison is very strong. 

A highly skilled high schooler can train all summer, focus on being in the NBA, train specifically to beat LeBron James, but nobody is going to put money on the high schooler unless you’re fooled by the propaganda that his school puts out. But.. the high schooler is still a great player and might be a future competitor. China is probably more like a great D1 player at this point militarily speaking, but honestly, idk if they even want to be in the NBA in that regard.

AdBeginning5210

this isn't a failure. this is exactly what the neocons, the deep state and Israel want.

VastTradition6250

Blah blah blah, do u really think "our Leaders" give 2-Poops💩⁉️

Do you really think all this is just Overlooked Oversights . . .

QuarterCenturyStoner

Is the war with russia a far more serious threat to the prevention of ww3?

At what point, after how many years of these states, Iran / Russia get to have a say in the mess that they have made?

It is a choice to deceive the world, stir violence and refuse peace, they do not protect their people but instead focus on belligerent antagonism. It almost seems like the leadership with knowledge on how to best overcome these challenges, is to directly confront it "Finally\*".

It's almost as if, Appeasing these countries and accepting their deceptions and lies was the go to plan up until 2014 &gt;&gt;.

Acceptable-Peak-6375

This was always going happen
When one country's goals to kill every last man women and child in Israel.how do we fix that.i don't blame israel for striking before they get the strength to follow through with there promises.

nonlethaldosage

The United Nations IS THE INCOMPETENCE. U"seless N"obodies. The nerve to make such a statement lol. The hypocrisy is UN-limited.

cybherpunk

I must take issue with your line about:

&gt; We need leaders who can integrate diplomacy, economics, security, climate, and social justice into every decision.

Iran doesn’t care about any of that. How can we approach a country on terms that only have resonance to the west?

LobsterMountain4036

If some nations sent peacekeeping forces to Gaza, I suspect none of this would be happening now.

MouseShadow2ndMoon

You think shariah law is acceptable????? You think murdering a woman for wearing her hair down is ok????

Early_Marsupial_8622

Oh yes, UN, rise up and send an army in defense of...

A murderous theocracy.

KeithGribblesheimer

Could’ve been prevented had you stepped in and helped Palestine. The creator is angry. Not sorry 🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸

No-Result9692

something something BIBI is bombing Iran so he (BIBI) can stay out of jail for all his corruption charges!?!?

Killathulu

I personally think Iran should be taught a lesson.

MichaelSchoefield

Which nations of the UN will send material and volunteers for the punitive force against the Israeli regime. Bibi is a wanted war criminal engaged in genocide and attacking nuclear facilities to cause a radiation leak.

The UN is already seen as toothless, inaction here confirms the UN as incapable of doing anything meaningful

MobileSuitPhone

Useless organization owned by usa and its daddy israel.

Choice_Plate3872

Same lies as 2002 and the Iraq war. Weapons of mass destruction which didn't exist. And now we are seeing it all again

Organic-Magician-265

lmao Netanyahu cooking Khamenei right now.

Reeeescsc

If we were to erase Israel that would fix 86% of the ME's issues.

LegPowerful8916

Americans: it's all on you now. Either you stop your government or the world will suffer.

Poure_Louzeur

Appears to be an objectively good thing for a majority of the Iranian people.

thatsthejokememe

1)WW2 will not happen on Iran/Israel. 
2) It was long overdue for Iran. They only exist to destroy Israel
3) Iran/Israel is just war from afar, unlike Ukraine/Russia
4) Iran is definitely the bad guy

Mental-Rip-5553

What do you mean ww3? Hezbollah got smashed in Lebanon and now Lebanon is able to have elections disarm non state actors.

That helped Assad get overthrown and abandoned by Russia and Iran.

Iran is busy in Ukraine, they’ve all but abandoned Iran, China isn’t doing anything to assist militarily, neither North Korea.

The Iranian regime is hated the world over. 

So how exactly is this world war 3?

Wombats_poo_cubes

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DeltaBot

I'm going to put aside the moral rightness of whether Israel is justified in attacking Iran. Most people likely believe that Israel is either justified or that they're morally bankrupt, so in either case the rightness or wrongness of the decision wouldn't impact the Israeli choice in the matter. Instead let's focus on whether or not it's a good strategic decision. 

First, let's look at the objectives of the strikes and whether they were achieved. 

* Decapitation for the Iranian military leadership

Astonishingly successful on a scale that isn't really getting as much attention as it should. The Iranian military is extremely centralized to keep most of the control concentrated in those loyal to the Supreme Leader. Israel just assassinated the commander in chief of the military AND his deputy, the chief of the revolutionary guard, and the head of Iranian air defense. I really can't emphasize enough the level of institutional knowledge the Iranians just lost and the chaos that replacing it is going to entail. Just to give a concept: imagine that the US national guard was a unified force across all the states with its own command structure entirely separate from the joint chiefs of staff. Now imagine a drone killed the joint chiefs and their replacement wasn't a general from the army or Marines, but the head of the national guard. That's basically what replacing Mohammad Bagheri with Abdolrahim Mousavi is like. The Iranian military is about to go through a fundamental reshuffling and power shift. 

* Dismantle the Iranian nuclear program

It's still too soon to tell, but I'm doubtful. Israel claimed to "significantly damage" the underground facilities at Natanz, but so far that's been unconfirmed by any other reporting and would have been quite the accomplishment considering it is buried in a mountainside. I think it's more likely that this was a mild setback in Iran's enrichment process but is likely to spark Iran to pursue actual weapons grade uranium rather than stockpiling 60% enriched material. 


That puts Israel in an EXTREMELY dangerous position for the next month or so. Iran is likely to devote all of its efforts to constructing a usable nuclear weapon before Israel can finish destroying its enrichment facilities, and will likely succeed. At that point, you have a difficult to predict and shifting military leadership in possession of a nuclear weapon with every incentive to use it before Israel can launch follow-up strikes to destroy it. It's a "use it or lose it" incentive structure that drastically increases the chance of a nuclear exchange. 

Let's say you're part of an Israeli military planning meeting discussing the airstrikes. An analyst tells you "if everything goes exactly to plan, there is a 5% chance that this time next month Tel Aviv will disappear in a mushroom cloud, but in exchange we will cripple the Iranian command structure for the next several years. I certainly wouldn't accept that risk, especially when as you said the Iranian ability to project power in the region has drastically diminished. There would need to be some external incentive to strike now, rather than last month or next year. 

I would argue that these strikes are NOT directed at regime change within Iran, but rather were intended to derail the American/Iranian nuclear talks or were associated with the attempt on Thursday to dissolve the parliament and call new elections. 

I'm not sure if that changes your view or not, but I hope it puts it in a different light.

brainpower4



You've outlined your arguments why Israel might be pissed at Iran, but you haven't satisfied that Israel's attacks are meaningful in any way that is a response to the threats you've outlined.

Eg: you argue that Iran, through proxies, is messing with Israel.  And presumably,  yes, Israel can poke back.   But Israel's clapback is entirely insufficient to address your argument that Iran is messing with proxy irregular forces.

 As you well know, Israel's purported official reasoning is Iran is "too close" to achieving nuclear capability, whatever that means.  If that's true, it doesn't affect Iran's proxy irregular capacity,  it affects (Maybe?)  Iran's nuclear capacity.  

Btw, the Houthis are definitely supported by Iran.  But it's a stretch to say that the Houthis are a conscious active lever of Iran directed specifically @ Israel.  Houthis primarily have beef with zyemen official govt, and KSA which props up Yemen.  The reason why Iran backs the Houthis is because Iran likes to help cause headaches for KSA.

I'm not confident that Iran backed up Assad in the way you say.   More like Assad being weak suited Iran, and Iran had official or unofficial channels for access for transit.

You've got some weird perspectives on ME dynamics.

CocoSavege

To clarify, your argument is that, now that Iran's strategy has failed and it isn't a threat anymore, that it's right for Israel to attack Iran? 


This does conflict with Israel arguing pre-emptive self-defense. 

AdvancedPangolin618

Lol, yes, they "decapitated" Hezbollah...who then forced them out of Lebanon.  Houthis are still causing shipping problems.  Hamas have more people than ever (as was inevitable with Israel's actions).  Assad falling is the only actual win for Israel and they didn't even do it.

No, it doesn't make sense to attack Iran.  Iran is a much larger country and Israel is losing support because of their genocide.  This could backfire on them big time.

Mrs_Crii

I don’t agree that Israel should have attacked Iran and I don’t think it’s the win people think it is.

Yes, Iran’s proxy network has taken some serious hits lately. But attacking Iran directly is a huge escalation. This isn’t just another skirmish with a militia — it’s targeting a large, sovereign nation with real military capabilities, regional influence, and plenty of ways to hit back (missiles, cyber, maritime disruption, etc).

The idea that Iran is “weak and alone” feels oversimplified. It’s definitely under pressure, but a direct attack could actually strengthen the regime by rallying nationalist sentiment. We’ve seen this before: foreign threats tend to help authoritarian governments tighten their grip, not collapse.

Also, strategically, what’s the endgame here? Iran isn’t going to roll over. If anything, this raises the risk of wider conflict in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, or the Gulf. And it could cost Israel politically too, even its allies might start pushing back if this spirals.

tldr: just because the opportunity exists doesn’t mean it’s the smart move. Containing Iran’s influence is one thing; attacking them is another. This feels like a gamble with way too many unknowns.

NoWayBruh_

In other words, what you're saying is:

Powerful people spending a lot of money to kill other people makes perfect sense.

  
I agree with you that in the mad, corrupt and heartless world that we live in, it makes perfect sense to attack Iran from the point of view of military strategy: "It is better to destroy them before they get the same atom bombs that we have, or else they could do to us what we've been doing to them this whole time".

  
On the flip side, I would love to change your view on this topic.

Anybody killing anyone, for any reason, does not make perfect sense. In fact, it makes no sense at all.

If you value your life, why would you go on destroying the lives of other humans?

  
What, in fact, makes perfect sense is the opposite of attacking others: "don't do unto others what you don't want done unto you"

EduardoMaciel13

Let us leave aside the question of Israel’s wars with other groups for now.

Israel’s conflict with Iran has no “theory of victory.” In short, what military action is Israel taking that will force Iran to back down and accept terms?

Bombing and missile strikes alone have never won a war. In fact, bombing and missile strikes tend to create a “rally around the flag” effect, as civilians support the local government protecting them from bombings.

Air campaigns have only aided in winning wars when coupled with the reality or at least threat of a ground invasion.

Israel (and her allies) has neither the immediate capability nor the political will to conduct a ground invasion of Iran.

As a result, their bombing campaign has no capacity to force regime change in Iran.

The current Iranian regime takes its anti-Israel stance as a foundational pillar of their worldview. Bombing them will not cause them to change this worldview.

In short, the bomb attacks may be successful at delaying the nuclear program or harming Iran’s military capability. But it will not *end the war.*

MiffedMouse

Why is that Israel a country that has repeatedly initiated wars on neighboring countries be allowed to have nuclear weapons? And Iran has never directly initiated a conflict, so why should they be barred from having nuclear weapons? Israel has even stated that it is fully willing to use its nuclear weapons as a first strike in their Samson doctrine, so why shouldn't Iran develop nuclear weapons as a deterrence? They would be stupid not to.

RichStatistician6601

I think a key factor everyone is missing on the geopolitical level is external partners that have vested interest in outcomes. Russia already said they think the attack was unwarranted and an international violation. They could be inclined to barter or sell a complete nuclear weapon and system of older generation or potentially a super sonic warhead. 

Russia wants to show what they can do in Ukraine, Iran wants to destroy Israel, Russia needs resources across the spectrum of goods and capital, and weapon tests in real world environments are rare for this type of weapon. The current environment is volatile and desperate for Russia and Iran. 

Israel miscalculated weakness as the result of their actions. They think dismantling proxies and killing key officials will derail Iran, but I believe this is a grand assumption. If Iran already thought this path out, they could very well have a weapon ready to launch now and more ready to go. If they feel this is it, what is stopping them? War? War is here. Sanctions? Already going on. Regime change? That's encouragement at this point.

Buying a nuke and the enemy expecting you to not have one because you haven't made it yet, then striking them immediately with it is Art of War behavior. You don't need a general and leadership to volley the dome with missles, then set a hyper sonic nuke off above Tel Aviv. You just need a team, a system, a button, and Putin to drop a few off.

People think Iran is weak and won't commit, but we don't know their general feeling of retribution and desperation to act yet, and a nuke doesn't have to hit the ground to be deadly. A nuke can be set off far above the city and still ruin it. A few would end their capital in a moment. The fallout will be tremendous.

Underestimating Iran is a grave mistake, in my opinion, and Israel striking now while Russia is vulnerable and in need of friends was a very bad decision. This is how World Wars start. They didn't assassinate one man this time around, it was dozens.

DilbertPicklesIII

Maybe Iran is weak……. But how’s Israel doing? Like, really. They’ve been fighting a war in Gaza, they’ve fought a war with Hezbollah, they’re defending off Houthi missiles… their reserves are probably depleted. Thats why they’re so reliant on US funding to help bridge some gaps. So what happens if the US decides this is one step too far? 

NBC ran an article yesterday about how MAGA and the Republicans, traditionally very pro Israel, are starting to split. Some support this. Some want America to pull out and not get entangled in another. Trump didn’t even comment on the attack right away, and that’s….. VERY out of character for the Twitter Man, to say the least. 

I’m also worried about the Israeli public. Do they have the appetite for another war? I know some of my friends and family there are fucking exhausted of war. They’re also extremely pissed that they got woken up in the middle of the fucking night for Bibi to circlejerk himself over the initial attack.  The others (mostly the more religious and older people I know) are taking this as a miracle from God. So which side will be the prevailing sentiment? Time will tell. 

So TLDR sure, Iran may be really weak right now, but I’m not sure the timing was right for the Israeli public and for continued American support. Israel can and did absolutely start this new fight, but can they finish it?

jinxedit48

The attacks are illegal. From US v. Nicaragua: 

&gt;  “the Court considers that in customary international law the provision of arms to the opposition in another State does not constitute an armed attack on that State.” 

Further, the court found that despite the US selecting the leaders, training, equipping, aiding in operations, target selection, etc., the US did not have effective control over the Contras so the actions of the Contras could not amount to an armed attack by the US on Nicaragua.

This applies to Iran and all of their proxies. Iran cannot be bombed because of the actions of the Houthis (not that Israel is using that justification in the first place). 

All these blatant provocations have done is increase the desire by Iran to have nuclear weapons to deter further attacks from Israel. Their efforts will likely increase, not decrease, because of these attacks.

FerdinandTheGiant

While Iran &amp; Israel are objectively adversaries, I don't see Israel's continued escalation as a wise move for the long term.

Israel's neighbors will forever be its adversaries so long as it subjugates Palestine &amp; it's clearly shown it intends to so indefinitely. Israel will never have peace as long as it remains an ethnostate. 

AFAIK both nations have a policy of escalating retaliation &amp; therefore tit-for-tat will just never stop unless both govts sign &amp; adhere to a ceasefire &amp; Israel gives Iran a reason to stop funding resistance/terror groups. 

If we assume both governments are rational (as in their primary goal is to maintain sovereignty &amp; legitimacy above all else) then neither will ever actually use a nuclear weapon, they'll just be a tool for deterrence. I don't find it realistic for Israel's policy to be preventing Iran's nuclearization at all costs to be realistic. Since Israel is a nuclear power, the Iranian govt will always seek to match that deterrence so long as it's able to retain power while doing so. Strikes against nuclear engineers &amp; facilities will only bring tit-for-tat &amp; continue the cycle until real, devastating war breaks out. 

Neither Israel nor Iran can actually "win". Israel's current policy in Gaza is simply unsustainable for peace with it's neighbors. 

pleasepleasenoroach

It makes perfect sense but not necessarily for what you listed, but if you're a corrupt criminal with an international arret warrant who can only prolong your freedom by starting new wars.

Teasturbed

To "strongly and aggressively attack" has major consequences. The more relentless attacks become, the closer it gets to becoming nuclear. Additionally, while not officially allies, Iran has ties with various countries including Russia and China. If Russia and China get involved, the whole world gets involved, if nuclear weapons are drawn, many millions die. 

Its obviously more complicated than this, but decisions in war have serious implications, and it doesn't just impact one country.

Alshee1

How is the Iranian regime even close to falling? Israel did conduct a very successful initial targeted strike to very high level Iranian military leaders, that by itself should be embarrassing for Iran yeah, but other than that what’s Israel even accomplishing with its current strategy&amp;operation?  Currently they are bombing eachother and that’s about it.

Israel is bombing nuclear infrastructure to delay Iran’s alleged nuke manufacturing, sure that’s good on paper. But does Israel and its allies have the political and population support/stomach to commit to an actual invasion of Iran? Without an actual ground army to occupy and manage Irans population centers, what’s stopping Iran to move its infrastructure to safer zones within their country? Israel’s constant bombing will only antagonize the Iranian population more against itself and make sure their desire to get nukes will increase. (Compared to Iran previously accepting international nuclear oversight if the sanctions are removed)

They also do not even have a chance of Iranian population to trigger a regime change. The blatant attack by Israel would only make nationalism to rise in Iran. So what is the endgame of this operation? Attrition eachother out with conventional bombs until one sides gives up? I would say Iran would definitively have a morale advantage on that situation, their homeland is attacked by their historic enemies, population will not give up and demand the leaders to give in to demands. Let’s say this goes on for a few more years, similar to the Ukrainian conflict, will the US &amp; Israel support of the public will continue to a pointless bombing and counter bombing campaign? So what happens when the support falters, does Israel call it a day and lran goes back to its weapon program?

Also Iran could literally trade some nukes (or the parts they need) from China or Russia in exchange for some huge favor if it can’t continue its proliferation due to constant bombing if it was desperate for one and this conflict goes long enough to cost US losses in other regions against China or Russia. They want a nuke to ensure their sovereignty, not to nuke Israel and get hit back by hundreds of nukes back from Israel, they are not a suicide bomber willing to destroy themselves as long as it destroys Israel too. For sure Russia can spare a few nukes it has for Iran, to make sure US is knees deep in costs in another conflict so that they get an easier go in Ukraine (or China for Taiwan).

superdupergasat

I disagree that it makes strategic sense. Claiming Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis have been eradicated is premature. There is no better recruitment for Hamas than Israel bombing your residence and hospitals while preventing aid from coming in. Unless Israel plans to go the full genocide route Hamas will rebuild, probably within 5-10 years. Same is true for the Houthis and Hezbollah. Liberating Syria is maybe 20% to Israel's credit. Turkey was the one to provide the necessary aid and had Russia not interfered the rebels would have overthrown Assad a decade ago. Even then, by annexing some of their land and bombing them, Israel made an enemy of a state that was originally orienting itself more westward.

Iran will recover. Israel can't invade Iran, and the regime probably won t collapse given that Israel bolstered support for the regime by attacking civilians. Even if the regime were to collapse I would be surprised if the next government in Iran wouldn't be just as hostile. In the meantime Israel severed any chance of diplomatically preventing Iran from obtaining nukes. What wasn't necessarily true a week ago but probably is guaranteed to happen now is that Iran will obtain nukes and have incentives to use them, lest Israel manages to shut fown their ability to do so.

You have to consider the consequences for Israel. It's international backing has never looked shakier and there is a real chance that in 15 to 20 years it will simply not have any backing. It has damaged its economy even if it doesn't look that way. The way it has done so, is by artificially lowering demand. IDF soldiers are not going to be spending much of their paychecks now but when this does end, they will be spending all their money simultaneously causing inflation. The military industrial complex has cannibalised the civilian sector by attracting efficient workers and resources to the point that once the war ends, the civilian sector will be smaller than it used to be. Israel can sustain the boost to the military sector by going into a massive deficit but they can only sustain this for a couple of years. High public debt is challenging for even the US but Israel doesn't print the world reserve currency. All in all this is a lot of damage to briefly bruise your geopolitical enemies who will emerge as greater threats 5 years down the line.

Lastly, there is Israel's opportunity cost. Israel was a year or so away from normalising relations with the Saudis and Egypt. They could have removed 2 out of the 3 big regional adversaries from their list and let Hamas and Hezbollah's unpopularity drag thrm to obscurity. They could have enjoyes the brief window in the week after Oct 7 to do a series of targeted strikes and removed the more extreme leaders and left their more cooperative leaders take charge. They could have generally just chilled for a decade or so and occasionally shot down the loose DIY rocket that Hezbollah threw at them every now and then. They would have fewer enemies and they coukd begin the process to diplomatically reduced Iran's influence.

rlyjustanyname

Your viewpoint is too evil. 

According to your viewpoint, Russia's bombing of NATO is completely reasonable because NATO's entire peripheral strategy is built around a network of proxy countries and quasi military organizations. They spent billions of dollars cultivating anti Russian forces that support Russia's neighboring countries. The goal of this investment is to encircle Russia and empower NATO with the ability to threaten Russia from multiple perspectives while protecting NATO territory.

According to your point of view, it is completely reasonable for China to bomb the United States because the entire Western Pacific strategy of the United States is built around an organizational network that opposes China. They spent billions of dollars cultivating anti China forces that support Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. The goal of this investment is to encircle China and empower the United States with the ability to threaten China from multiple perspectives while protecting the territories of its allies. It is absolutely reasonable to launch a tough and aggressive attack on the United States and Iran now

reflyer

The bigger question is why people defend Israel? When Israel can easily calculate and target all of Iran's targets, then this further proves they were intentionally slaughtering children and civilians in Palestine, affirming what every other neutral investigation said already.

human1023

When i hear Americans discuss geopolitics ... i always go "oh brother ... "

Yes. Iran groups lost groups it supports. 

Hezbollah remains remains in Lebanon. 

Even Hamas remains within Gaza

Houthis still bankrupted Eilat and ships avoid Suez. 

Israel will need to "mow the grass" soon enough - its thr grass will keep growing too. 

Syria fell to Turkish influence (much less to do with Israel). 

Israel is isolated diplomatically more than ever - look to Europe for your answers. 

When the shooting stop, there will be more shooting - its just pauses. 

Israels strategy of hard power hasnt worked for 80 years and wearing thin its supply of international support. 

This time though Israel will start walking away with a lot less of international support. Isreal is a prop for the US. 

Iran on the other hand has faced a 10 year conflict and multiple years of sanctions. Sheer survivalism.

Asleep_Mail5616

It makes sense, but it wasn't unavoidable. If Trump hadn't unilaterally tore down the JCPOA in 2018, the ME would be a completely different place today.

papyjako87

No it doesn't. Israel has a covert and illicit nuclear program running since the 60s. Do you expect neighbours to sit back smoking weed while a belligerent and vengeful Israel builds up its nuclear stockpile? 

If Israel covertly built nukes and continues to refuse international oversight, Iran can also do the same. 

Israel and the west as a whole have a history of fueling proxy wars, arming rebels and unlawfully invading states. Do I need to remind you how many civilians have been killed by the US army in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan? Nuking innocent Japanese civilians? Enabling warlords to abuse childrens for mining resources in Africa?

Iran's funding of terrorism isn't exclusive to itself. If you condemn Iran (which you should) you must equally condemn Israel and its enablers.

Gohab2001

[deleted]

Except….they didn’t account for the global shift in the perception of Iran and its government.

I’ve never seen anything like it before. The social media comments are littered with pro Iranian sentiment, even after years of (not so) subtle indoctrination against the IR.

We’re living in a different time, and the generations to come are largely anti-Israel now with no real way back.

Merino202

Israel is not an independent actor, they are the tip of the spear for U.S foreign policy in the region. Anything Israel does in the broader region (beyond gaza) is part of America's grand design for the future of the Middle East -- Iran has been the white whale of neocon nation builders for year as it is the last major counterweight to complete American control of the region.

So don't get it twisted -- this attack was not some rogue action of Israel taken out of self defense. This is power politics at play, the U.S fully supports this attack/operation and if they did not, it would not have happened. Just like it didn't happen for the last 15 years Bibi has been wanting to do it because the U.S leadership at those times simply told him no.

quantumpencil

I think you are right and I hope that other redditors understand that it doesn't mean that one supports such an action l, just because he thinks it makes sense from Netanjahus perspective.

Israel has no real chance of destroying the nuclear program anymore, but they are weaker than ever in the past 10 years and Israel has the chance to disable a strategic threat for a long time. Iran can't use their nuclear weapons offensively, so destroying their conventional potential makes a lot of sense. Since Iran might use their nuclear weapons to deter future strikes, now, before the weapons get operational, would be the time to attack. Furthermore Iran can't use their proxies to react, nor can it defend itself, since Israel took out most of the air defense months ago. 

Two things to consider:

-international law would only allow Israels action if there is a believable immediate threat to them and if their action would be suited to disable that threat. Iran threatened to destroy Israel multiple times, but their program is ready to build weapons for almost 2 years and yet nothing really happened. Furthermore Iran decentralized and buried it's program very well so Israel achieved its goals of destroying the program are extremely thin. Instead they mainly targeted military targets, commanders and scientists.
This attack is suited to destroy Iran strategic potentials aimed at Israel, yes, but it's not a reaction to an immediate threat. So overall I think it's safe to say that Israels attack is not covered by international law.

-there is still a fatwa which forbids nuclear weapons active in Iran. Only an attack against Iran would justify assembling nuclear weapons. So before Israel attacked, Iran needed to retake that fatwa before presenting a nuclear bomb. You could argue that Israels attack enables Iran's regime to justify the bomb domestically. 

Israel might have destroyed a lot of Iran's potentials aimed toward Israel, but by doing so they further distanced them from international law (not like there is a lot left since what they are doing in Gaza) and they didn't solve the nuclear problem, they might even have made it worse.

ncoremeister

I'll not try and change your view diametrically as to a large degree this is my deductive analysis as well, however I'll seek to tweak your view as there is a major factor you don't mention and really should be taken into account.  Nuclear weapons.  

Israel's actions in eliminating Iranian proxies was absolutely part of a plan to give them the option to launch the attack we've seen. It was the impasse in negotiations where the foregone conclusion would be that the proverbial clock would run out that was the catalyst for this strike.  Had a deal been reached that eliminated Iran's pursuit of nuclear arms, I don't think you'd have seen this attack take place.  

The U.S. has distanced it's self from the action, we've stated we didn't sanction it. I don't even think it's reasonably contestable though that we support it, we are just trying to keep it from setting off a world war.

thecoat9

World leaders, including Putin and Xi, have condemned Israel's military actions and called for de-escalation, highlighting the complex international dynamics at play.

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