Public sentiment is predominantly negative, driven by concerns over the humanitarian impact of the Iran-Israel conflict, potential escalation of military actions, and the resulting implications for global trade and oil prices. Many commenters express a desire for peace and criticize the roles of Israel and the U.S., while also voicing support for Iran's right to self-defense. Overall, there is a strong sense of frustration towards political leadership and the management of diplomatic relations.

Iran

Israel

United States

You can only watch and see. It is not the first time that Israel strikes against Iran and the last time it was over after a week. The last time oil hiked by $10, that seems to be the risk premium. Ships could be stroken, stranded, banned, or just stopped. That means the oil in transit from A to B is affected...

If you can watch Bloomberg TV (e.g. using their $1,50 offer for the first month), they are giving good explanations, background information, estimates from analysts , many consider the price hike in oil as panic buy, becasue there is emergency supply available, and seen that oil was quite cheap the last months many storage facilities now contain big quantities of crude oil bought between $55 and $60  which is apparently now sold into futures.

The rerouting would be 10 days and affects around 25% of the worlds oil traffic. As an optoin they can ride the ships faster (an oil tanker can do up to 25 knots but rarely runs that fast).

Hedging... in case it is relatively calm OTM options would be a possibility. Or if you must get a specific price then you can hedge with CFD contracts. Actually the volatility makes options too expensive... even the far OTMs.

And if you already have a ship loaded you could think about letting it run a different way  but then the oil might arrive 10 days later. If it's for a refinery you could resupply smaller quantities by spot purchases (and a second ship) for example you are buying oil for your refinery. The refinery must not run dry... and keep a reasonable safety reserve in case something goes wrong.

The lesser worse case is ship rerouting, that costs you 2 weeks and some millions extra.

It could be that both sides step out of the trade BEFORE the ship has been loaded because "Force Majeure". Warfare, earthquakes are examples for that.

It could be that both sides have a losss AFTER the ship has been loaded by "havarie grosse" . For all of that you must have an insurance...

WickOfDeath

1. Red Sea : Houthis allies in the region usually tend to shoot whatever is Israeli/USA friendly since they’re backed by Iran. Situation cooled down but might spike again.
Hormuz : Same but with Iran shooting down anything Israeli or USA sided 
2. Rerouting = longer delays for delivery = less product availability + more expensive freight = price increase. 
Market automatically went up because traders know that in these situations prices can only go up. It spiked in anticipation.
3. Can’t reply on this one but I guess they make sure to have different routes, sourcing available -&gt; diversify

JoshJosh17

igetlotsofupvotes

I believe it won't have much impact. The war is horrible but the truth is the market doesn't care about morals or politics. The only economic damage this war will cause is higher oil prices but I believe the market could have already priced that in. Especially since now more people have become bearish we have more fuel to to go even higher

MoralityKiller11

I will say stocks will come down overall, but OIL and gold will trend up , this is going to be news reliant, until about a week or so then the market will normalize. So basically the news of the war will dominate the headlines until everyone gets bored. 

Now everyone knows wtf is the straits of hormuz and oil prices can go up even more if it's blocked.

Confident-Ad8540

More trending behaviour &amp; less mean reversion

SentientAnalyser

I think the war could cause more market chaos. oil might spike, and money could shift out of tech into energy, defense, or even gold. All depends on how far it escalates.

Independent_Cat_2725

lone_warrior1310

Gold can trigger all time highs this week

stoploss-savior

Global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran, market watchers warned on Monday, as stocks rallied despite escalating warfare in the Middle East.

The two regional powers continued trading fire on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive day of fighting since Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week.

Despite the continued fighting — with hundreds reported dead — global stock markets sustained a positive momentum on Monday, seemingly shrugging off broader concerns about the conflict.

More details here: [https://cnb.cx/4e8rzSv](https://cnb.cx/4e8rzSv)

cnbc_official

amnesiac7

What does either of them really export to impact a market? 
Other than live US flag stamped munitions? Which they seem to be trading free of charge.

Kaludan

Markets are pumping like a run away diesel engine, they’re not going to stop for anything other than a major catastrophe.

PossibleOk49

The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict poses significant risks to global trade, especially for India, which relies heavily on maritime routes for its oil imports and exports.

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