The public sentiment regarding the escalating military tensions between China and Taiwan reveals a blend of anxiety, skepticism, and a desire for peace. While many voices express concerns over the risk of conflict and criticize foreign involvement, there is also a strong advocacy for Taiwan’s sovereignty and calls for peaceful negotiations. Some comments reflect optimism in Taiwan's resilience amidst military posturing, while others emphasize the unpredictable nature of war.

Taiwan

China

United States

Anyone that is truly qualified to talk about this topic would keeping their knowledge close to their heart. 

Based on what I understand though, there would be an immense logistical challenge to secretly amass an army that would be ready cross the Taiwan straight. So it is likely that Taiwan and allies would know that it is imminent.

There are other considerations related to economy, population curve, nationalism, natural resources, etc. that would make it difficult to know how the CCP would position themselves

TrDx

Long term is hard to predict but I can tell you that there isn’t a sudden invasion happening next week. There would be a lot of warning before something like that would happen. There is no travel warning for Taiwan currently. It is safe to travel here. Enjoy the trip!

MukdenMan

What I’ve found is that people outside of Taiwan are more concerned about the attack than the people I talk to IN Taiwan.  People are just going about their life and don’t feel like it’s as imminent as it’s made out to be from the outside. (This could also be just my extended family)

I’m not sure if it’s just years of the same, complacency, or news hyping things up.

tazzy531

No one knows what goes on in that clown's mind. It's impossible to know if and when an authoritarian will start an unprovoked aggression. Putin has shown as much.

As for the opportune moment, China would have absolutely no reason to do anything right now. All their efforts are focused on manipulating the local presidential election. The recent conflicts also inadvertently put China under a lot more scrutiny. So a 'while everyone is distracted' doesn't really apply to China here.

Anxious_Plum_5818

There is no state department advisory so I wouldn’t worry about it.

Its not like the Hamas raid that caught folks by surprise.

At best the PRC can make a massive roll of the dice and go for a decapitation strike with missiles and a small airborne force.  

Thats just not likely even with Xi because the odds of success are really really low and the repercussions really really high.  

You’re more like run into a natural disaster than a surprise Chinese attack.

Finally, the US 7th Fleet isnt dealing with anything in the middle east.  We have the 5th fleet for that.  The Ford is in the 6th fleet which is the Europe/Africa fleet so its sitting in the eastern med to remind Hezbollah that there is a “find out” phase in warfare.

In case you’re wondering:

https://news.usni.org/2023/10/10/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-10-2023

Half the US navy is in the pacific…59 of 96 deployed ships are in the 7th Fleet.

vinean

China currently has enough problems of their own to attack Taiwan.

Sill_Dill

No need to worry. The US and China are de-escalating. It will be WWIII should China attack Taiwan.

kaisear

Little to none. Open source intelligence does not point to any force build up by PRC to invade the island. Also I can imagine how unpopular it will be if there is no right pretext for the mainland to launch a military campaign.

If we see "terrorist" attacks in the mainland then I would be more concerned.

Lots of posturing in the Taiwan straight and West Philippine Sea, but that's about it for now. 

American forces have a strong base positioned in Korea, Japan, and now the Philippines so this is a good deterrent for now.

supernormalnorm

This isn’t something anyone can predict. But know that the Taiwan strait has some rough seas, especially in the winter, so mounting a massive sea invasion during winter months is not optimal to say the least.

thelostewok

Hmmmm...starting a war before an election?  That would definitely guarantee a DPP win and that's the last thing the PRC wants to do. It's really low...

Successful_Toe_4537

[deleted]

When war is about to happen, it’s obvious. Russia amazing troops and supplies near the enemy border. You can’t hide this from satélite 
 imagery. 

China right now is definitely preparing for sanctions though. So I wouldn’t bet on them never invading. Once you see China having an actual TSMC replacement, I would be very worried for war.

I_will_delete_myself

Your visit should be safe. The preparation of lauching an attack will take weeks. Quickly get detected from eyes, ears above space.

If Xie leaves I would say Twn would be left alone not to get stepped all over. The problem is he wants to prove he is better than Mao.  In 1950, China mobilized over 1m soliders building boats preparing to attack Twn.  Twn had no leader then.  The acting president of ROC fled to NJ. Truman, a democrat did not offer to assist. He wanted Twn to be left on its own. Now, Biden, a democrat who followed Republican stance in giving Twn the support needed. Nancy's visit gave boost to the Twn citizens that there is hope. Also Jpn National Defense is very supportative of Twn government.  With a more pro US Marcos governement at least they look all together forming a chain.

Vast_Cricket

the-tigs

I was in Ukraine prior to the war. 100% Sign up for the STEP program - the embassy will call you directly if they suspect something is gonna happen. They called me Jan 25th 2022 and advised that I leave.

https://step.state.gov/STEPMobile/Default.aspx

That said, a war of the scale needed to take Taiwan by force will not happen without warning

lmneozoo

The PLA haven’t even practiced in amphibious landing. Until that happens, I’m not worried.

pontics

Regardless of your political opinions and whether you think a conflict will happen, there are things you can do to protect yourself and your family, and make the island more resilient to anything that might come our way.

I am talking about emergency preparedness. American are well versed in it, and I am always amazed how little Taiwanese know about it.

This is also useful for natural disasters, earthquakes, pandemics, car accidents, and so many situations. 
Educating yourself about what you need at home to cover your basic needs can at best save your life, and at least make it a lot more comfortable in a bad situation. Don’t take my word for it, and check these pages from the CDC, red cross and one of the most known preparedness community online:

https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/features/hurricanepreparedness/index.html?cid=EPRhomepage

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies.html

https://theprepared.com/prepping-basics/guides/emergency-preparedness-checklist-prepping-beginners/



In case you think this is complete overkill and none of this will ever happen or affect you, let me tell you what happened to me recently:
The water tank of my building broke, it was on the roof and flooded the elevators. It had to be replaced and the whole building did not have water for a month. It took 2 weeks to fix one of the elevators. Some people from 18th floor had to take the stairs to get water. Fortunately I had my water supply at home and my family could get by though most of this with it. I only had to get water after the elevator was fixed. For a family of 4, including shower toilet and drinking water, we’re talking 25L water a day, although we could probably make-do with half of this.

That’s something that could happen to anyone.

Lolrami101

Everyone in Taiwan lives in a geological, meteorological, and geopolitical tinderbox. Being prepared should be your number one priority. 

Stock up on dry food, water, and medical supplies/kits. Stock up and be trained in the usage of tourniquets, chest seals, and basic first aid. Get shovels and pick axes to be able to dig through rubble. Get heavy-duty backpacks and duffle bags to be able to carry said supplies.  

If one disagrees and thinks all will be ok, then one is absolutely delusional to reality, and that’s a fact. It’s not a matter of if. It’s when a destructive event will happen; be it a super typhoon, a mega earthquake, or Xi’s suddenly worried about his legacy before he dies.

All my in-laws live in Taiwan, and I have a lot of friends there in Taiwan. All of them have begun or already have completed basic preparations for the worse-case scenario. Those who live or lived in California (earthquakes) and Florida (hurricanes) can attest to ensuring one’s household is prepared. Taiwan has both AND a crazy bully of a neighbor. Those are three major reasons to be prepared no matter what.

Also, tell everyone to do such basic disaster preparations now, and communicate meeting spots with your loved ones. An entire neighborhood with supplies and basic first-aid can help each other out, and relieve the strain on public emergency services; and most importantly, significantly curb casualty rates.

DanTMWTMP

If you're traveling with your family and you're really worried about this kind of thing, then check your country's state department travel advisory...don't ask a bunch of ding-dongs on Reddit, jfc.  You could also watch the news and get a feel for what's going on in the country, come on man.

Muhammad_WangSmith

I am pretty sure the attack is the imminent. But I'm just a random internet stranger. I know American Admirals have claimed the earliest China can invade is 2027 because that is when their navy will be large enough to transport their land forces but I guess they finished 3 years early. Honestly man, no one knows. It's not like the people of Israel knew they were going to be attacked. The people of Ukraine saw a massive build up of forces for about a month or two. China will need to invade Taiwan with even more forces than Russia used so many analysts believe it will be impossible for China to hide this build up. The amount of supplies and personnel will be enormous. So you are honestly fine and when you land on this beautiful island, you will realize no one in Taiwan is paying attention to when China will invade. Western media pays way more attention to it and loves to bring it up.

Raggenn

I'm in your same situation. Keep an eye on elections. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything crazy and try to push for independence from the mainland I would feel safe.
The only problem is that I couldn't get a feel of how crazy they could possibly get. Are there a lot of hot-heads who are looking to start another war in this period?

Rhianna87

Believed to happen in 2027 but nobody really knows.

Kohomologia

The best war is winning without a war… only the stupid actually go to war

Weary-Depth-1118

When is your expected date of arrival?
How long is your stay? If it’s two weeks then it won’t happen in the next two weeks. If it’s a month, it won’t happen in a month either.

flauntes

wickyb123

Ah. So china will be the ones to kick off ww3?

ThrowAwayGarbage82

Excellent piece of writing that gives some great context to where we find ourselves today. It is very hard to argue against many of your points regarding both sides benefiting from maintaining the status quo.

Given how the Russian/Ukrainian war has played out, and the significant changes we have seen on the world stage, do you see an open conflict as any more likely now than you did when writing this?

Edit: grammar

MoltenGoldfish

SS: This short essay seeks to contextualize China/Taiwan relations. I dive headfirst into the recent posturing from China and make the argument that the an invasion by force is untenable. In order to understand the current situation, it is important to understand the economic, cultural, political, and military interactions between Taiwan and China. I wrote this in February 2022 originally. Enjoy!

shortedsharted

Excellent analysis! Too often we get stuck in mindset of viewing the world as an RTS strategy game on the brink of total war, where each and every decision must be calculated in preparation for conflict with the enemy, ignoring the very real internal political motivations for external foreign policy decisions.

enlightened_engineer

Great intervention, although I have issue with the following statement "The CCP are more ultra-nationalists than they are communists."

If you read carefully what they write, the CCP's line of action can clearly be grounded in a "communist" reading. I was actually amazed at how well-read many officials are on the matter. Many of the thinkers they quote are from the Western tradition, and I was surprised to see the likes of Gramsci, Marcuse, Adorno being quoted seamlessly in some articles.

Of course, the current system draws very little from Marx himself (for whom nationalism was nothing but a bourgeois ideology), but the current line of Xi Jinping Thought for the New Era or "socialism with Chinese characteristics based on Mao Zedong Thought" can be traced back to Lenin and mostly Stalin's idea of statehood and socialism.

I think Western scholars often make bold statements about the CCP and its "fake communism", but it is often out of ignorance and disdain for marxism in general and Chinese intellectuals in particular. It is, I believe, a big mistake that tends to portray Chinese geopolitical decisions as irrational and emotional when they are often telegraphed and painfully explained with heavy theoretical frameworks.

In that respect, when you characterize the annexation as one of an "other country", for example, you fall short on the reasoning behind the "reunification" narrative of the CCP. Same, you state that "\[i\]nvading Taiwan would also come at an enormous economic cost" or that there "is absolutely no political appetite to start killing their own people", and I think you undervalue the important ideological aspects in what are the remnants of a civil war.

When you look at Xi Jinping's speech at the 2017 congress, you can see that he relies on nationalism as an emotional argument, stating that Taiwanese are from the "same blood", but the wording also tells a story rooted in marxist anti-imperialism : "All activities of splitting the motherland will be resolutely opposed by all the Chinese people. We have firm will, full confidence, and sufficient capability to defeat any form of **Taiwan independence secession plot**. We will never allow any person, any organization, or any political party to split any part of the Chinese territory from China at any time or in any form."

The problem with Taiwan is not that a rogue island slips away with technology that the mainland wants or that its secession is shameful for the national narrative. In a marxist logic, the island's political divergence is a "plot" to divide China, an avant-garde of imperialism impeding China from further development. It is, in short, an existential threat. It is not a question about cost and benefits, it is a question of feasibility. There is no "economic cost" or "human cost" that can cloud the necessity for the CCP to find a solution to the Taiwan problem.

The only question here is about the means. True to marxist thought about the historical inevitability of a classless society, many have argued over the years for a slow approach to the question, thinking that sharing economical infrastructures (what liberal thinkers call "economical integration") would lead to a shift in ideological superstructure of Taiwan (and to reunification). This didn't happen, and the island is drifting further away.

Xi is therefore pointing towards another narrative : this shift in ideological superstructure is not possible because of the intervention of the imperialist powers in "China's internal affairs". In that case, there are less options remaining and military intervention becomes a much more likely outcome.

Note that there is absolutely no question of public opinion in this explanation : communists don't care about public opinion, they believe in historical forces, and that the masses often are misguided or manipulated. In this case a "force" - Western imperialism - is acting on Taiwan, and the soft means to prevent it seem to be dwindling.

JustePecuchet

tronx69

&gt; The Convention on International Civil Aviation says that a nation’s airspace extends 12 nautical miles from the low water line along the coast of a state

Taiwan is not a signatory of the Chicago Convention. It's claims to having territorial airspace or waters is not based on law or treaty.  

Earlier this year, China for the first time expicitly claimed territoriality over Taiwan's coastal waters (the "12 mile limit"). The waters used for these exercises extend within this 12 mile limit. Taipei hasn't complained about this naval incursion (perhaps because they know they will not like China's response). 

I agree with /u/longevityman - China is most likely to resolve this issue via a de facto blockade. The current exercises are the first expression of this, and China will gradually escalate as long as circumstances remain favorable. Their ambitions at this point could well be entirely symbolic. If Taiwan's choice is to either fly a CCP flag (while retaining full control of their military and governance)  or war, Taipei and Washington might both agree that a symbolic concession is preferable for the time being.

exoriare

Seems pretty obvious a blockade or no-fly zone to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table would be much better and seems more likely than an full scale invasion.

LongevityMan

My criticism of the peaceful reunification model is that China is running out of time on Taiwan, and CCP knows it.

**There are five factors at play.**

First, while relatively minor, Xi Jinping wants to secure Taiwan before he steps down.

Secondly, [the younger generation of Taiwanese increasingly sees themselves as Taiwanese first, and this will only get worse for each subsequent generation.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/02/yes-taiwan-wants-one-china-but-which-china-does-it-want/)

Thirdly, Taiwan's economic ties with china most likely reached their peak. [As production shifts to ASEAN, that dependence on China will decrease.](https://www.ft.com/content/5b78a04d-e51d-45d8-b276-2bbf9b11bed2)

Forthly. Taiwan is gradually changing to asymmetric warfare. How long will it take? As with most things, Taiwan only has got 80% of the 20% that is most important to make a Chinese invasion miserable.  If they seriously commit to it, it won't take long to significantly boost Taiwan's deterrence.  The problem is so far they are moving very slowly.

Lastly, every time Taiwan signs a trade agreement or gets a seat at the international body, the status quo changes.

weilim

&gt;Even at the time of writing, giving a speech on the anniversary of the overthrowing of the Qing Dynasty in 1911, Xi vowed “peaceful reunification” and made no mention of using any force, in contrast to his words in 2019.

This is because Xi Jinping is going for a historic norm-breaking third term and needs stability going into it, this is his biggest priority at the moment. Particularly when he already has a bunch of economic, covid, and political problems to deal with in China. While his third term is not in question, any big maneuvers over Taiwan that backfires could put that into jeopardy. He actually doesn't want ultranationalists stoking flames right now. Stoking nationalism over Taiwan can all be done later after he's secured his position. This is why Pelosi timed the visit now, right before the fall when Xi Jinping will get his third term and can't do anything brash.

&gt;It’s going to take something really bad for Beijing to drop its peaceful reunification policy and to go for a military solution.

Unless Taiwan declares formal independence China won't invade Taiwan, they're not capable enough right now of militarily facing off with the US and Japan, nor in the near future.

iwanttodrink

I am going to go through the essay point by point.,  There needs to be a clarification and it needs sourcing because some of the facts are just wrong.

# Point 1: Kashmir Comparison

&gt;The concept of an impending war in the Taiwan Straits bears a lot of resemblance to the constant Zerohedge-esque paranoia of an impending war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir (Kashmir is a funny one because it’s going to come up later). I’m going to try and lay out the case for why China isn’t about to invade Taiwan.

The difference is both sides have nukes, while Taiwan doesn't have nukes.

# Point 2: Taiwanese Investment in Mainland china

&gt;The current status quo is one that is very beneficial to both Taipei and Beijing. Taiwan has de-facto, although not de-jure independence from China. Meanwhile, Beijing benefits from inward investment from Taiwanese businesses and also gets to boast that Taiwan isn’t an officially recognized country by any of its adversaries like the US.

Taiwanese investment in the PRC, along with Korean and Japanese has experienced a sharp decline even before Covid, during Covi it is even worse.

[Taiwanese investment in China decreases by 68% in Q1 2021](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4183181)

[Taiwan speeds up investment diversification away from mainland China amid cross-strait tensions](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3160818/taiwan-speeds-investment-diversification-away-mainland-china)

&gt;On the business side, Taiwan has accumulated almost $200bn in investment in China. Taiwanese SMEs and large corporations alike create plenty of jobs in China. Unsurprisingly, China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. In 2020, Taiwan’s exports to both Mainland China and Hong Kong amounted to US$151.45bn, accounting for 43.9% of total exports. In short, the ambiguity over Taiwan has benefited both sides, politically and economically.

The same could be said of Russia-Ukraine before 2013. [Russia made up 22% of Ukraine exports in 2013.](https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/ukr/show/all/2013/) By [2019 it dropped to 7%](https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/ukr/show/all/2019/)

# Point 3: The CCP Are Now First and Foremost Ultra-Point Nationalists, Not Warmongers

&gt;The CCP are more ultra-nationalists than they are communists. It is through improving living standards as well as fervent nationalism and propping up anxiety amongst the public that they have maintained their power. If the Taiwan issue is resolved, what problem will Beijing have to whip up nationalist sentiment against and keep the legitimacy of the CCP alive? A permanent state of anxiety from potential interference from foreign powers restricting the rise of China serves the Party quite well. In this case, that would be the situation in Taiwan. It serves as a great reason for the existence of an extremely strong PLA.

The Chinese Communist Party is first and foremost a Communist Party. Communism &gt; Nationalism. Whereas for the Vietnamese Communist Party it is Nationalism &gt; Communism. If you read Mao and Zhou En Lai's attitude toward the Japanese in the 1950-60s,  here is a journal article explaining how the Japanese "disappeared" under Mao, it was all about the triumph of the Communists in creating a new China.

[China's "New Remembering" of the Anti-Japanese War of Resistance, 1937-1945](https://www.jstor.org/stable/20192776)

  
**Point 3A: Century of Humiliation Narrative**

&gt;Ever since undergoing the “century of humiliation” between 1839 and 1949, the Chinese Communist Party are hell bent on ensuring that China is respected as a world power. Among many things, the Opium Wars and the Sino-Japanese wars were all things which severely harmed the Chinese nation. During this century of humiliation, China had to cede Hong Kong to the British, Macau to the Portuguese and the island of Taiwan to the Japanese. The subsequent peaceful reunification of both Hong Kong and Macau as Special Administrative Regions under Chinese sovereignty went a long way for Beijing in restoring their dignity. But Taiwan is left still un-unified with the Chinese mainland.

The Century of Humiliation narrative was quickly forgotten by the Communists by 1949 and only remerged in 1990.  I have written a long post about this

[Contemporary China's Quest for Rejuvenation and the Century of Humiliation](https://www.reddit.com/r/IntlScholars/comments/d8jot9/contemporary_chinas_quest_for_rejuvenation_and/)

Macau never seceded from the Portuguese in the 19th century, but under defacto, [Portuguese control in 1542, and Portugal declared sovereignty in 1783. They had an agreement in 1883, with the Chinese recognizing Portugal's eternal control of the colony as long as Portugal didn't give it to a third party.](https://www.britannica.com/place/Macau-administrative-region-China)

**Point 3B: Legitimacy of the CCP**

&gt;All of this is in the name of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, or the “China dream” as he’s said countless times. If Beijing looks weak then they’ll lose their legitimacy with the Chinese people. So, constant pressure on Taiwan without actually backing military action seems like a stable status quo. Sounds absolutely crazy, right?

I would disagree., losing Taiwan won't doom the CCP. Chinese dynasties are really really tough. it took 110 years for Qing to finally collapse.   

**Point 3C: Chinese Promises**

&gt;In fact, Beijing still recognises the situation to be different in Taiwan to such an extent that they’re willing to offer Taiwan control of the military forces on the island, something which it never has offered nor implemented in Hong Kong or Macau where the control of the PLA garrison falls entirely under the remit of Beijing, in an effort to try and solve some of the evident mistrust that exists between the island of Taiwan and the central authorities in Beijing.

Do you trust what the CCP says?  How many times has the Communist Party broken its promises? The notion of allowing the ROC to keep its military is something that was floated in the 1990s.  War won't cause instability in China.

# POINT 4: The Problems With Invading Taiwan

&gt;it turns out there are actually US special forces on the island and they’re helping train Taiwanese forces, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Regular Us troops were stationed in Taiwan prior to 1974. it's not as radical as it seems.

&gt;The island has also been building up on a strategy of asymmetric defence, to ensure that any PLA invasion will be met with heavy losses on both sides. 

They just started baby steps toward this.

&gt;The reason China has long emphasised for a peaceful reunification is because the people of Taiwan and China are actually ethnic brothers and sisters. Taiwan’s Han Chinese folk account for 95% of the total population, and they also speak Mandarin as their main language.

Millions were killed in the Chinese civil war in the 1940s. the essential difference between Taiwan and China is that Taiwanese are predominately Southern Chinese non-Mandarin dialect speakers whereas Chinese leadership is increasingly Northern dominated. If you look at Europe, the people living in Yangtze Delta would be Dutch, people in Northern China would be German, and people in Guangdong / Fujian would be British.

#

don't forget demographics. china has people to spare, even with bad demographics, while Taiwan has worse demographics with no internal migrants to exploit. over the long term china will look to attract business from Korea, Japan, and Taiwan as each of these countries age. plus, all of them already have a significant amount of trade with china.

dumazzbish

Your entire argument is "the status quo will remain the status quo because it benefits both sides currently" which is a naïve assumption of the future. In the year 1900 everyone assumed war in Europe was an impossibility due to the economic damage it would cause; in the year 1920 everyone assumed a second world war was an impossibility because the first was so destructive; in 1940 it seemed like Germany would dominate Europe; in 1960 it seemed like American manufacturing would remain the heart of its economy forever; in 1980 it seemed like the Cold War would never end; in 2000 it seemed like America couldn't be beat in a war. The present is never the future.

America enforced a corporate-globalist system on the world a few decades ago that basically relies on China doing low-end manufacturing and Germany doing high-end manufacturing, but Germany relies on Russian gas for this. It's unwise to assume that America will continue this system when its two greatest enemies (China and Russia) have taken full advantage of it.

America won't continue a system that comes at its expense for much longer, they'll let the system crumble and look after themselves. In that scenario China's calculus changes drastically, and so will its actions towards Taiwan. Just remember that there was once a time when Russia didn't' want to invade Ukraine, until they realized their window was slipping.

wskwbtns

Do you think the US is trying to instigate a war? It's advantageous for the US to do it now while they are still stronger

ken81987

One thing I never understood is: Why does China want power by bullying its neighbors?

They pretty much made enemies of all of its neighbors like Vietnam, Phillipines, India etc.

&amp;#x200B;

Was it because of hubris. They did not know better and were drunk with power due to the strong growth they experienced in 40 years and were now the third super power. Military was running the country and the CCP leaders went along with military?

&amp;#x200B;

Coming back to Taiwan: If China was not essentially a big brother autocracy why would Hong Kong or Taiwan not want to join hand. I mean, as a Taiwanese I would also fight to death if the other choice is my children's quality of life will be reduced to that of Chinese who almost are living like slaves to the nation, constantly watched and constantly asked to make sacrifices with not much to show far other than food and shelter.

techy098

"It’s going to take something really bad for Beijing to drop its peaceful reunification policy and to go for a military solution."

Like an economic crisis, which is currently unfolding in China, leading to a multitude of further crisis.

If you look at the current events in China, you see a lot of things happening right now: the burst of the housing bubble, parts of the banking sector near collapse, rising food insecurity, rising unemployment &amp; poverty levels, a harsh demographic outlook, the zero-covid policy backfiring, a growing political dissent among the chinese population, climate-change becoming a major threat, growing political pressure on Xi, etc.

Things are not looking good for China, and autocratic regimes often use war as a means to deflect public anger over a domestic crisis. Xi, being under threat from rival factions and under pressure from the mountain problems China is facing, could very well decide that the reward of invading Taiwan is worth the risks for him.

He won't make that decision carelessly, but if Russia has taught us anything than that the actual combat readiness of an army in a dictatorship doesn't necessarily need to be known by it's leader. So Xi could very well base his decision on false assumptions.

I too think the current aggression by China, especially the current military excercises are simply a "show of force" aimed more at the domestic audience and not a pretext to actual war. But it would be foolish to believe that China couldn't make a snap decision to invade Taiwan in the near future, meaning within the next five years.

WombatusMighty

Pretty much agree with your assessment.

The only reason I could see any current risk of increased China-Taiwan tensions is future Chinese prospects; the nation has a rather short window until their population grows old and has to be supported through increased spending on healthcare and pensions. And since the nation is quite xenophobic and chauvinist, the PRC can’t replenish their ranks in the same way the US or Europe can.

Therefore, if China is dead set on unification, the next ten ish years are their only window to do so unless they believe they can achieve peaceful unification whether it be through economic, information warfare, or any other means.

CorneredSponge

michaeldavis11

A great piece on this situation. Why do most nations play into Xi's hand and avoid formal recognition of ROC? Is it because they fear the loss of CCP's trade $ or is it a game to sustain the Status Quo? Both seem stupid and backward to me.

Galactus54

&gt;Macau to the Portuguese

This was already willingly(?) done by the Ming in the 16th Century.

&gt;The nationalism that binds the country’s different factions together inthe face of Taiwan would fade away as there is no problem with China’s“territorial integrity” anymore.

There's still other places, for example the SCS and parts of India. Then as the missiles into Japanese waters remind us, the Ryukyus. More could be added. Sure Taiwan is the most important right now.

&gt;Xi is alleged to have gone off the record and told the KMT (the softly pro-Beijing nationalist party in Taiwan) that accepting a de-jure declaration of independence would lead to the overthrowing of the Chinese government.

It might lead to a coup inside the party, but I think most average citizens care more about their day to day life. Also to me it sounds out of character for Xi to say something like that.

&gt;they’re willing to offer Taiwan control of the military forces on the island

This is a ploy. HK and Macao never had a military.

&gt;The whole narrative of Beijing consistently breaching Taiwanese airspace is a convenient narrative for the media, but obviously far from the truth.

Interestingly enough the primary pusher of this narrative is Global Times.

**One point about peaceful unification I think you missed.** The extent to which the PRC feels it has to use force is the extent to which they believe their system is unattractive to Taiwanese. You could say it is the extent to which they feel their system is worse and can never be better. If their system were better or getting better in the future, then Taiwanese would be more willing to join it or more willing in the future to join it. So trying to have a peaceful voluntary unification is also keeping up the goal that the PRC can become a country that is attractive to join up with.

Though I agree with your conclusion.

&gt;It’s going to take something really bad for Beijing to drop its peaceful reunification policy and to go for a military solution.

As you also say it would also take a lot of internal rereeduction (probably decades) to make this attractive to the people.

schtean

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT AUSTRALIA HAD CONDEMNED THE ATTACK OF CHINA ON TAIWAN AND IT DEFENDS ITS RIGHT FROM INDEPEDENCE BY THE STATE OF CHINA...SINCEREMENTO FROM GRECE...ARELIS

elarelis

I like a lot of what you wrote here but I couldn't help but disagree with the false dichotomy that's implied by what was written.

The false dichotomy: either PRC invades ROC or maintain status quo.

IRL, there are many many paths to unification. Anywhere from military blockade to some sort of peaceful compromise where ROC grants PRC military/strategic concessions and ROC gains limited *de jure* independence with most domestic systems/institutions remaining intact.

So saying that because both PRC and ROC would prefer the status quo over an invasion is accurate IMO, it's wrong to then conclude that therefore the status quo won't change for the foreseeable future. Maybe not a outright invasion, sure. But a military blockade? Maybe. But a blockade has a huge risk of escalation.

US noise really does not matter. Just think about its embarrasing failure in afghan, and how messy US domestic fighting between two parties, and it is no longer a strong nation that could bring up/share real interest with allies, but instead, drain up blood.

skyfool1105

sooo many assumptions from op. Pure cope. I know everyone wants to hope for the best, as is evidenced by the many awards for this post but people are being so naive about the rise of China. I dont think panic is good but people need to realize that China has ambitions that it absolutely will go to war for in the future.

Nobles_Fightclub

Overall solid post but I’m trying to figure out the core political argument and am confused

You mention that they’re making Taiwanese independence look like a threat to mainland (like separatist movements, which need to be violently squashed like the Muslim camps) — thus strongman government is required 

However, later the argument is that actual violence would be unpopular since Chinese view the 95% ethnically Han Chinese Taiwanese people as peers. And ccp violence on Chinese people is viewed unfavorably

In other words. They need to look strong militarily to appear like strongmen since Taiwan is a threat, but they can’t actually attack it because Chinese citizens don’t view them as a threat.  (?) 

How to reconcile these two conflicting ideas?

inm808

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One country two systems might have worked if certain people weren’t so stubborn pushing through a law that was eventually given up way too late, causing everyone to lose faith in it.

Money-Ad-545

Honestly, I'd say that the only way to resolve everything peacefully once and for all is to recognize that Taiwan and China are two different countries. The last time I checked, most Taiwanese aren't interested in bringing the ROC to the mainland anymore. On the other hand, with each year they seem increasingly uninterested in putting themselves under PRC rule. Perhaps there was a possibility of a peaceful reunification with local autonomy in the past, but China burned that bridge with their response to the Hong Kong protests (the crackdowns on the mainland haven't helped either). The Taiwanese fought hard to become a democratic society--the White Terror is in living memory. Why would they throw away their hard-won rights by uniting with China?

So here's my counter-proposal: China recognizes the Republic of *Taiwan*, and Taiwan renounces all claims on the mainland. In addition, certain treaties are put in place tying the countries close together. Maybe they use the same currency, or let their citizens enter without a visa, or give their companies certain rights and privileges. There would probably he a military element to these treaties, let's be real. Also, China spins this as a peaceful divorce and gets to show off how kind and benevolent it is for letting Taiwan go its own way, which helps soften the scary reputation it has abroad.

Edit: I feel like I should say that I'm not opposed to reunification necessarily. Rather, I'd say that the political systems in Taiwan and in China cannot be reconciled. If Taiwan was an autocracy, maybe the Taiwanese would see little to lose and much to gain by reuniting with China. Or if China was a democracy, then maybe the Taiwanese wouldn't fear losing their rights if they united. But as things stand, it seems impossible. Why go from having basic rights guaranteed to tip toeing around censors? Why go from supporting indigenous cultures to genocidal Han chauvinism? Why go from legal gay marriage to gender role enforcement and a ban on even mentioning homosexuality? Where's the incentive for reunification?

nopingmywayout

After Hong Kong the only way that the Communist Party is going to peacefully assimilate Taiwan is to implement free speech free press an open internet and free and fair elections.  Otherwise the Taiwanese will likely tell you to go fuck yourself.

Taiwan is a distinct culture that has shifted away from mainland China and thanks to Xi Jinping's utter ineptitude will likely continue to do so barring a major war that the Communist Party is ill prepared for and likely to lose.

China for all intents and purposes has lost Taiwan for for generation and at best you can hope for is that the Taiwanese develop a different understanding of what went down in Hong Kong.  Fat chance that will happen given that Taiwan has a free press, free speech an open internet and free elections.

As for any treaty between Taiwan and the PRC that would require trust which given the Communist Parties recent support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is in even shorter supply.  I don't think that is even remotely realistic and totally disregards the facts as they stand and the positions that have been established inside Taiwan nor the power imbalance that exist between Taiwan and the PRC.  That's foolish delusions that will never happen at least not with this generation. Maybe in 50 years the politics will have changed but at present Xi Jinping fucked any chance of a peaceful reunification today or in the near future.

haveilostmymindor

&gt;  How then, should China and Taiwan reunify? 

This is a false premise. 

We can all agree that Britain ruled China in a more real sense than PRC has ever ruled Taiwan. 

So when will China come to negotiate their subordination to the Great British empire? 

&gt; Why is such a proposal like this not being discussed between the two? 

Because nobody feels like surrendering something like dominion of their waters, and acceptance of a foreign military onto their land. 

The only way China gains Taiwan, especially post-HK mess, is by force. For that, you require acquiescence of several interested major nations. So China's best bet is to be very friendly (from a subordinate position which reflects reality). This 'inevitable reunification' rhetoric just confuses mainland Chinese, nothing else.

1-eyedking

&gt; Taiwan gets to maintain domestic independence/freedoms with ZERO PRC interference and gets to maintain economic independence too (trade freedoms, etc.).

That requires a lot of trust that China won’t use its geographic dominance to bully or extract what it wants from Taiwan. And why should Taiwan trust China when China has been practicing salami slicing throughout its entire modern history?

Your argument reminds me a lot of the people who try to defend Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer from NATO — completely ignoring the onus is not on Ukraine to be a sacrificial state for the protection of Russia. The Taiwanese people do not owe anything to China for China’s security.

Your proposal is also ridiculously one sided. “Haha China gets a lot of what it wants but Taiwan gets…. What it should get regardless?”

Further, You ask “what would a peaceful resolution look like?” but only consider one possible “peaceful” outcome: unification, and preclude a peaceful de jure independence of Taiwan.

The fact is, China is just falling back on the same old “blood and soil” arguments and ideology. An ideology history keeps teaching us is simply wrong, disgusting, and indefensible.

Yeah well, Russia was supposed to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity as part of the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nukes it it's territory. A piece of paper is only worth as much as the integrity of the leader running the country signing it.

And, well.. we only need to see how decided to chew the Sino-British Joint Declaration, spit it out, and take a big dump on it to see how much worth anything signed with the PRC is worth. TBH, I always thought that was a pretty dumb thing to do. They could've waited patiently waited just another 25 years and say "Alright, we kept our word, but time up, now you guys do things our way", but they probably thought they could get away with it (kinda true), and afford the reputational damage.

Getting Taiwan to sign anything with the PRC was always going to be a big challenge but after what happened in HK, I don't think the citizens and leadership in Taiwan will look at that and think "Oh yeah, we'll just give them a base in our territory, I mean what could possibly go wrong right? We'll have a treaty!!!".

--Mikazuki--

The main obstacle here is how the PRC is going to demonstrate its good will.

What you're proposing sounds like security concessions in exchange for Beijing guarantees of non-interference.

After the PRC's violation of prior guarantees, elaborate display of brutality in the crackdowns on the Hong Kong protests, and then further violations of guarantees when it abrogated the Sino-British Friendship Treaty and promulgated its totalitarian National Security Law for Hong Kong, it's very difficult to imagine how anybody's going to believe a word Beijing has to say if it makes commitments not to interfere with Taipei's sovereignty. It's just not going to happen in the near term. Getting rid of Xi and his extreme brand of ideology is going to have to happen first, and that's just a starting point. Trust is built slow, and it will probably take a long time to get to the point where something like what you propose would be possible.

So, what you're talking about isn't a win-win from the Taiwanese perspective.

The onus is really on Beijing to make a change. Unfortunately for all of us, the clock is running out on reunification. After Hong Kong in 2019 and 2020, Taiwanese are abandoning the ideal in greater numbers than ever before. It's getting harder and harder for Taiwanese to distinguish being Chinese from Communist oppression, and an increasing number every year would rather reject the former than accept the latter. Unless the mainland changes its strategy, Taiwanese Chinese identity may be lost forever at a very near date.

Janbiya

Why is China's interest more important than Taiwan's? 

If China is nicer to its neighbours including those in South East Asia, then there will be no threat to China.

How about China breaking up instead? Tibet, East Turkestan, Inner Mongolia can declare independence. I would like to see Lingnan area declare independence too.

I do not agree with your first premise. 
Taiwan is not a part of China. In terms of history Taiwan was firstly a real part of China in the 1840s. But it was de jure under the control of the Qing since 1670s give and take. But it was run by the political failures, the "exiled" failures of the system. Abusing the population, not providing them with any of the benefits that "normal" (not Taiwan) such as education systems, or anything like that. No attempt at integrating the population, or the territory.
Even in the 1850s Qing did not control all of the island of Taiwan. 

But that is just not recent history. But in recent history we see that the Taiwanese was integrated into Japan, Mao Zedong did think of the Taiwanese as "foreigners" the Taiwanese volunteered to defend Japan, and invade the mainland.

ChinaStudyPoePlayer

&gt; I REALLY hope that it is not by force,  maybe a military blockade is   
ok. 

A military blockade is form of using force. 

&gt;But that solution still requires  Taiwan to come to the negotiating   
table and reach a treaty amicably. 

Right now the PRC is not willing to talk (negotiate), Taiwan wants to talk. 

&gt;Could even give China a military base on/near Taiwan so that PRC can station land/sea/air military units there.

Maybe in say 50 or 100 years. But right now Taiwan doesn't trust the PRC enough for anything close to this (or your proposal in general) to work out and I don't think the PRC will likely change enough in the next few decades.

Most Taiwanese disagree that Taiwan is a part of China. They have a separate identity and a unique culture. The only thing threatening them is a belligerent China, which wants their island, to support their geopolitical ambitions. As these realities threaten the West, and the Taiwanese, I think a realistic solution is keeping the Chinese out of Taiwan and maintaining the status quo. 

Strengthening alliances of Western countries such as Japan, Australia and India will balance the threat of China and maintain independence of Taiwan.

History has shown us that the PRC cannot be trusted to honour its treaties.

stupindous

To be honest, there is no perfect solution. Expected to be downvoted. I think your suggestion is the best among all the worst solutions. Either Taiwan risk bloodshed or settle for a peace treaty...

Wide_Protection_9136

Taiwan's only chance to be independent of ccp china is to wait until the inevitable next civil war and warlord era. Then join in the civil war to win, however in the event of a mainland civil war, taiwan will likely be attacked immediately as it's too much of a risk to whoever holds the southeast provinces. It is also equally likely the southeast warlord would ally with taiwan. An invasion of taiwan may even be the spark that ignites the next civil war and warlord era. But either case taiwan cannot avoid the civil war.

There is no way for taiwan to be independent of china. Anytime a reunited china appears in history, taiwan would eventually be taken over. Only when the mainland is too weak militarily can taiwan exist as a nominally independent state. 

After the great powers era and ww2 no Chinese warlord would even consider having an independent likely hostile unsinkable aircraft carrier, ship blockade, and potential american invasion point on their doorstep unless they themselves are a us subordinate/puppet and if they were they'd just reunite with taiwan anyway, returning taiwan to the mainland.

Calduin

    Key Findings
    
Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days
    
The authors identify four key variables for evaluating a country's capacity to resist a high-end attack: political leadership and social cohesion, military effectiveness, durability (i.e., the ability to manage and sustain the economic and human costs of conflict), and military intervention by an ally.
    
For insight into Taiwan's capacity, analysts should pay close attention to the quality and strength of Taiwan's political leadership and the degree of social cohesion in the lead-up to a crisis or conflict. The other variables should be regarded as of secondary importance.
    
Even though Taiwan has fewer armaments and troops than China does, that does not doom the island to defeat. However, even if Taiwan's military dramatically improves its combat-effectiveness, China's military advantage will likely continue to grow because of China's enormous resource advantage.
    
The impact of severe casualties and economic loss likely would cut two ways in a major war. Initially, Taiwan's public probably would rally around the national leadership and favor resisting an aggressive China. However, over the long term, heavy costs of conflict likely would erode public support for continuing the war.
    
Because of Taiwan's military disadvantages and low durability, successfully withstanding a large-scale Chinese attack would require military intervention by the United States. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China's enormous advantage in military resources likely would allow it to eventually subjugate the island.

Fit-Case1093

The part I never understood on this debate is what is China’s game plan is for a rapid amphibious invasion of an entire island without the other side noticing. In the buildup to the invasion there is no way to go undetected. You just need such a massive buildup of ships and logistics. Ships are hard to hide from satellites. They are also hard to quickly replace. Even if China is willing to sacrifice every last soldier, those soldiers will be standing on the shore of mainland China and their intense patriotism won’t get them across the straits. On the defensive, Anti-ship missiles and submarines are easy to conceal and will turn those straits into a ship graveyard.

nofxet

Invasion has always been contrary to china's interests regardless whether they can actually conquer the place... Hence their long term (unchanged) policy of seeking diplomatic reunification. 

Nationalism is a hell of a drug. People don't like being subsumed against their will. Not to mention the general diplomatic and economic consequences. 

I maintain my view that the only thing that will make China invade (or more likely blockade) is external actions such as a declaration of independence or a radical change in US posture... Unfortunately something that seems more likely by the month.

Taiwan is far more useful as a vehicle for political messaging than as a rebellious province and source of international reprisals, especially given the supreme importance the CCP give to internal stability.

MrDaBomb

idk. we also thought the Afghanistan police force would resist the taliban for at least six months, but it actually only took 2 weeks

owencox1

I just can’t see China ever doing it, but then I never thought Russia would actually invade either. 

Assuming they’re able to win a lightning total victory in five days, what then? I think this is an aspect of discussion often neglected despite its immense importance. 

The west will almost certainly cut all trade ties with China and issue severe sanctions. This alone will be a significant blow to Chinas already slowing economy. 

The ASEAN bloc has long been pragmatic toward China, but how will they react to a naked power grab by the bully next door? If Vietnam aligns itself closer with the US to protect its interests in the South China Sea, the US could cut off most of Chinas ocean going trade while staying out of missile range. Thailand has close relations with the US military as well and could add further complications to Chinese interests. 

That leaves land trade as Chinas only remaining option. They’ve invested a lot into the Silk Road, but it’s still in its infancy.  Russia is also not the power it used to be, and without their military might the CSTO will no longer be able to keep a lid on central asia tensions. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are a great example of lingering tensions. China has invested over billions of dollars in the later. All those investments still be viable and functional? And then there was the Russian intervention into Kazakhstan to prop up an unpopular dictator. What if the next time there’s a revolt, a more pro western government takes over? In short, if China wants to shift its trade to inland routes, they’ll also need to take over police action in the area to ensure stability. Will they be able to do this while also occupying Taiwan? 

Lastly, there’s the question of the Indian response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They also have lingering border disputes. If India joins the West, the China will be fully boxed in and stuck with just Russia as an ally. And even if India maintains a neutral middle ground response, they may take the opportunity to seize more territory in the Himalayan, further straining Chinas military. 

Having sat and thought this out, my conclusion is that even in the event of a swift Chinese victory, the damage and isolation will be so great as to make it a potentially final Pyrrhic victory for the CCP

So if we assume China is able to win a  total victory in 90 days, what happens then? I think this is an aspect of discussion often neglected despite its immense importance. 

On the Island itself, I would expect at least low level
Guerrilla warfare for several years at the least. Taiwan has a clear separate identity from China at this point and they’re horrified at what happened in Hong Kong. No promises by the CCP will ever be trusted, and a large military garrison will likely be needed for a long time. Don’t forget that Taiwan is incredibly mountainous and rugged, making it an ideal place for partisans to operate. 

The West could of course always decide not to intervene, impose light sanctions, refuse to recognize Chinas claims, but in reality all but lay down and take it. 

However, I think this is very unlikely and the west will almost certainly at least cut all trade ties with China and issue severe sanctions. This alone will be a significant blow to Chinas already slowing economy. 

And if the US intervenes and suffer casualties, will they simply give up once China controls the island? Imagine a scenario where China invades, the US navy races to intervene, but are forced to pull back after an entire carrier group is sunk by Chinese missiles. Taiwan tries to resist alone, but is overwhelmed with its government collapsing when New Taepai falls. This might sound ideal to Chinese leaders, but the US would still have enough naval strength to maintain a blockade out of missile range. If some of Taiwans government escapes, this could go on almost indefinitely. The amount of rage and anger US citizens would feel about such losses would demand this response at the very least. 

And then there’s the ASEAN bloc who have long been pragmatic toward China, but how will they react to a naked power grab by the bully next door? If Vietnam aligns itself closer with the US to protect its interests in the South China Sea, the US would have an easily supplied choke point on most of Chinas ocean going trade while staying out of missile range. 

That leaves land trade as Chinas only remaining option. They’ve invested a lot into the Silk Road, but it’s still in its infancy.  Russia is also not the power it used to be, and without their military might the CSTO will no longer be able to keep a lid on central asia tensions. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are a great example of lingering tensions. China has invested over billions of dollars in the later. Are those investments still going to be viable and functional? And then there was the Russian intervention into Kazakhstan to prop up an unpopular dictator. What if the next time there’s a revolt, a more pro western government takes over? In short, if China wants to shift its trade to inland routes, they’ll also need to take over police action in the area to ensure stability. Will they be able to do this while also occupying Taiwan? 

Lastly, there’s the question of the Indian response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They also have lingering border disputes. If India joins the West, the China will be fully boxed in and stuck with just Russia as an ally. And even if India maintains a neutral middle ground response, they may take the opportunity to seize more territory in the Himalayas, further stretching Chinas military. 

Having sat and thought this out, my conclusion is that even in the event of a swift Chinese victory, the damage and isolation will be so great as to make it a potentially final Pyrrhic victory for the CCP

Hungry_Guidance5103

Unlikely they would be able to resist. However, China would be hit with massive casualties.

Ill-Opinion-9794

Taiwan might not able to resist a Large scale military attack by China but the Taiwan military could drag it down so the blood shed is too great for the Chinese fragile demographics (due to one child policy) essentially erasing bloodlines after bloodlines. A fact that can be exploited, destabilizing the CCP regime (shaking the hierarchy of power dynamics to its uncomfortable levels for the powers within the political elites)

SnooPeripherals9679

If China has high casualty tolerance, I'd say they overwhelm the island.

The ensuing occupation is a different beast.

Also, if China doesn't do it QUICKLY, the situation may change.  A prolonged or delayed invasion may result in them being repulsed, and the arrival of new assets from the US or other nearby security partners.  

Any invasion of Taiwan must be rapid, otherwise the risk of failure is high.

ICLazeru

If the US were able to defend South Korea, they have even better chances to do same with Taiwan, island is easier to defend as long as there is a will to defend it (which might weaken over time as war will inevitably make Taiwan less important to the US economically speaking).

concerned-potato

They would surrender in 24h.  
A scenario like Ukraine cannot happen, Taiwan is a small country, they can't afford total destruction. Also USA getting involved would probably mean a long fight and the destruction of the country (and I don't speak about nukes, no-one will use nukes).  
A long conventional war would just leave the country in ruins.

The consequences of a short surrender would still be disastrous with political / economic effects. With East and West trade shutting down for a long time. Various sanctions, border control. Permanent alert state in oceans etc ... and everyone wondering what will happen next.  
The biggest trade dependent world economies would shrink by 10% to 20% in a few years.

Maxence33

Taiwan has reported increased military activity from China, detecting numerous military aircraft and naval vessels around the island.

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