Public sentiment reflects overwhelming frustration and skepticism towards both U.S. and Israeli actions in the conflict over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Many commenters express fears of military escalation, criticize leadership for failing to maintain peace, and call for accountability. There's a strong desire for nonviolent resolutions over the rhetoric of war, highlighting distrust in government motives and concern for the repercussions on innocent populations.

United States Government

Israeli Government

Iranian Government

I doubt it, The USAF dropped 12 Of the heaviest conventional bombs in it's Arsenal on Fordow, 2 bombs in each precise point.

And 2 on Natanz.

If Fordow and Natanz are still even slightly operational then it means the only effective method to destroy such underground facilities would be tactical nuclear weapons, and we better hope that doesn't become a standard.


We need to see more credible reports rather than unverified leaks.



Edit:fixed a slight error I made.

JourneyToLDs

it didn’t destroy. it actually renovated and increased property value.

Ok-Noise6652

All eyes will turn to the IAEA, I think.  If Iran allows them to continue monitoring their nuclear program, things will calm down.  If Iran refuses the IAEA, the fighting may reignite.

jimbo2128

To be clear: 


These are all hearsay reports. They are based on the accounts of anonymous sources. At this point - it’s just rumors. 

Further, there’s good reason to believe the Natanz site was entirely destroyed. The current chief of the IAEA believes so. 

He reported his views as follows: 

“Craters are now visible at the Fordow site, Iran’s main location for enriching uranium at 60%, indicating that the use of ground-penetrating munitions. This is consistent with statements from the US. At this time, no one - including the IAEA - is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow. Given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred”

Source 
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-introductory-statement-to-the-board-of-governors-23-june-2025


These comments suggest that the Fordow reactor suffered serious damage. 

It will not take “3, 4 months” to rebuild it. The construction of nuclear infrastructure is among the most complex engineering and construction projects known to mankind. It took 2 fricking years for a bar down the street from where I lived to rebuild after the bar exploded due to a freak accident. I don’t believe that a fricking nuclear weapons plant is going to be rebuilt “within months”.

BizzareRep

Eh, it’s exceptionally unlikely that a bombing of that magnitude didn’t destroy the nuclear sites. I just don’t find it likely at all. 

Early-Possibility367

The IRGC’s first priority is preventing a coup. They won’t be funding proxies or rebuilding nuclear capabilities anytime soon. Their economy is in the trash. They’re clinging to power and utterly desperate. They’ve shut down internet for the entire nation during the war. They’re terrified of losing power.

Western media and Middle East ‘experts’ continue to be completely clueless, making everyone stupider about the region.

Good thing israel is smart. We can’t afford not to be.

The Iranians are really going to suffer in the hear term. Crackdowns will be vicious. 

Pray for them.

Agreeable_Recipe3075

They tried their hand at the negotiation table and Trump erratically backed out of the agreement in 2018.

Now he is striking them on their homeland for daring to breech those terms.

The United States &amp; Israel need to sit down and stand back.

ASwagPecan

Iran is going to have to submit to inspections.

Top_Plant5102

It's a process. I think nobody knows for sure what damage the Iranian nuclear facilities sustained. Not Israel, not the US and certainly not the NYT. Unless you want to put boots on the ground, there is no way to destroy the Iranian facilities in the traditional sense. Everything can be rebuild, but everything can also be bombed again. Overall, it is just another round in a long war which will continue as long as jihadi lunatics are in charge in Iran.

Reasonable-Notice439

Netanyahu has been boasting of wanting to attack Iran and Fordow for months so unless people there are completely stupid, they have long moved the important stuff somewhere else.

Netanyahu is all about PR.

PoudreDeTopaze

Well, real article much more weighted then flashy header and does not include such a bold statement.

vovap_vovap

I’m sure the assassination of another bunch of their top nuclear scientists and engineers, never mentioned by lib media as part of the “bunker buster bomb damage minimal” story, didn’t set them back at least a couple months.  I also wouldn’t want to be part of the recruitment effort for the new start up.

jackl24000

It didn't destroy it, let alone set the regime's nuclear ambitions back my much more than maybe a few months, and Israel is well aware of this. It wouldn't have tried to bomb the entrances a few days after otherwise. Why would you if you were confident everything was destroyed and below 100s of feet of basalt and concrete. Iran also had been given plenty of time to move their highly enriched uranium , of which they had approximately 400KG, that could really easily be turned into a nuclear bomb, and almost instantly in a dirty bomb. They are also known to have at least one other facility even deeper below a mountain in the vicinity of Isfahan There is no real ceasefire, let alone a lasting peace. This is likely the last opportunity Israel will have to do major damage to the regime and its efforts to destroy Israel, potential for decades if not ever. I am also quite sure Israeli brass and Netanyahu himself is aware of quite how existential of an issue we are talking here, but were pressured by a petulant moron who is more concerned with a Nobel Prize he is never going to get, than Israel's mid to long term security, and dare I even say continued existence. So Netanyahu has a choice to make that might well decide, as a whole, the fate of the country.

Spirited_Volume2385

Are used to read the New York Times because it had reliable information.  Because of it buyout, it’s now basically a Simp for progressive ideas.  For example, even if this hasn’t been totally destroyed, the equipment inside is such a delicate nature in order to separate out uranium 235 uranium 238 that it’ll all have to be replaced that among many other things will probably put this back a lot more.

thebeorn

cochorol

There were two threats:

1. Developing nuclear weapons

2. manufacturing \~3,000 heavy missiles a year each with \~0.5 - 1 ton of explosives. 

  
Iran doesn't need enriched Uranium for "peaceful purposes" so the fact that the leader didn't actually give the order to assemble the weapon is meaningless since they were developing everything else besides that actual assembly decision.

Shachar2like

So? Bombings can be repeated until Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions. 
Iran was shown to be a paper tiger, they have nothing to stop further raids.
The regime doesn't have any money to rebuild the missile and nuclear program.
It's unlikely they want to go the North Korea route and make the entire country into a starving labour camp.
I am sure the scientists working on the program are also experiencing severe morale problems.

sulumits-retsambew

It would be tragically hilarious if that's all this skirmish achieved

avbitran

NYT and CNN aren't reliable in this matter.

Amazing-Buy-1181

I don’t trust the NYT to report truthfully on this issue. The only way this is true is if no damage was done to the actual infrastructure. What do I mean? I mean, if the only thing these bombings achieved was merely to block the entry into the nuclear weapons facilities, then the NYT is correct. But if, as the head of the IAEA said, the U.S. strikes damaged “significantly” the centrifuges in that weapons making facility - then the Iranian weapons program is in shambles. 

Nuclear weapons building is among the most complex enterprises known to mankind. Here in my city in America, it would take TWO YEARS to rebuild a one story commercial property. 

Do you mean to tell me that it will take twice as little time to rebuild a NUCLEAR WEAPONS FACTORY that makes highly enriched uranium than a bar that sells lagger  beer???

Gtfoh and get a grip

6 months is optimistic. We all know the truth no need to repeat it...it makes folks nervous and start asking where they can get a second passport from.

What were Israel's war goals?

Regime change? Not so successful.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6Ft0SkBbs8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6Ft0SkBbs8)

Ending Iran's enrichment program? Nope, no joy.

[https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2025-06-24/ty-article/.premium/report-u-s-strikes-did-not-destroy-irans-nuclear-sites-early-intelligence-suggests](https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2025-06-24/ty-article/.premium/report-u-s-strikes-did-not-destroy-irans-nuclear-sites-early-intelligence-suggests)

Stopping iran's ballistic missile program? Yeah no, best not to talk about ceasefire day.

[https://x.com/clashreport/status/1937353883195445307](https://x.com/clashreport/status/1937353883195445307)

What was achieved?

The Iranians have become more unified than at any point since the Iran-Iraq war. Mossad sleeper cells have played their card and are now being rolled up. Iranian opposition have been branded traitors in the hearts and minds of the Iranian people.

Iran now has a clear path to ditching the NPT, ejecting the IAEA and with the blessing of most of the world become a nuclear power. A few countries may even be willing to offer Iran a ready made bomb.

Even Trump has decided to lay off sanctions and stop hindering Iran China oil trade.

This is called strategic failure. Israel has not only failed to achieve any of her war goals but has actually moved backwards on all of them.

What were Bibi's strategic objectives?

Bibi of course. Keeping Bibi in power for even one day longer at all costs. What is the fate of a country compared to the continued freedom of a Bibi?

KappaBera

So you're saying the U.S. and Israel should resume attacking Iran?

knign

Netanyahu started this crap to avoid his court cases. He played the American orange felon/rapist like a little puppet, and US taxpayers are stuck paying the bill. Thousands of people will die just so two corrupt politicians and their ignorant supporters can feel macho. It’s sick.

Fourwors

Even the head of U.S. intelligence Tulsi Gabbard admitted there was no evidence Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon. People, mostly Netanyahu have been claiming Iran was months away from a nuke for the last 20 years. It’s a fiction.

TheOtherUprising

Of course it was worth it. Iran is far less of a threat to Israel due to their ballistic missiles getting hit even if the report on their nuclear program is true.

CreativeRealmsMC

Thankfully, Mossad also took out some key people

2dumb2learn

If true, then it is apparent that Israel needs to keep up the ariel shellacking.

In any event, we don't need to pretend that Iran is more dangerous than before.

CoolMick666

Iran is going to have to agree to inspections. This attack showed how vulnerable they are. 

Stopping nuclear proliferation- especially in the Middle East- is a priority for everyone in the world.

Lets plan attack again soon.  They are defenseless

Ok_Maximum_5205

“sacrificed all those innocent lives”

Which innocent lives died from the US attacks?

“Do you think it was still worth it?”

Yes.

Do you support Iranian nuclear terrorism?

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The one you’re missing is that at a minimum Israel is going to continue to hit anything that they can ID as even tangentially associated with the Iranian nuclear program basically as soon as they can.   

With Iran’s proxies having been rendered effectively impotent as far as Israel is concerned (as well as Israel apparently having thoroughly penetrated the Iranian government), Iran no longer has a deniable way to counter Israeli actions without risking US (or other 3rd party) involvement.

DanforthWhitcomb_

At this point they would be better served by building their nuclear weapon capacity in China, Russia, or North Korea and clandestinely moving the weapons back into Iran.  Nothing the US could do about it as China, Russia, and North Korea are all nuclear capable with the means to launch into America or American interests.  That's probably the next move for Iran.  Simply build those weapons where the US is afraid to attack.

UnusualAir1

Probably 2, to be honest. And not just because it is always safe to assume that Trump is lying.

The Iranians had one week to remove all the uranium (and probably everything that was not bolted on) from the targeted sites. Al Jazeera even had a nice satellite picture of a long line of trucks around Fordow a couple of days ago, which is probably when it happened. They may have been badly outgunned, but that doesn't mean they were stupid.

The Iranian nuclear agency said there was no danger of radioactive contamination from the destroyed sites because all nuclear materials has been removed, and if that is a lie, it is a stupid one because you can easily measure the radioactivity around the sites and if people start dying of cancer because of the lie, there would be a huge backlash in the future.

No one knows if Fordow actually got completely destroyed or not, because it was built deep underground and we only have satellite pictures to assess the damage. But there were doubts a few days ago about whether the much lauded bunker buster bombs that Trump hit it with would even work as advertised.

And of course it is likely that Iran has built other underground sites that we don't know about, where they could transfer everything they removed from Fordow and rebuild their nuclear program.

If it was that easy to completely stop their nuclear program just by bombing Iran, it would have been done a long time ago. It probably only set it back by a year or so. It is pretty naive to think you can solve every problem only through brute force.

NekoCatSidhe

Delayed by years, they might have moved the uranium but they could not have moved the centrifuges.

neloish

Bet: some uranium moved, but not all. Otherwise why wouldn't Israel just demolish the new location and not ask Trump to destroy Fordow?

YnotBbrave

The facility was definitely cooked, it’s very unlikely the US and Israel would not have seen the movement of nuclear material, the amount of UAV and spy satellites we have. The question is whether the nuclear material was destroyed, the centrifuges are likely damaged or destroyed. They can always rebuild though

viti1470

 Russia and or China could give Iran nukes.  Similar to the way they gave them to North Korea.

RobotAlbertross

Depends on the US success in attacking the facilities. Most likely option 2. 

But that depends if the US destroyed the facility completely and the regime collapses before Iran has time to regroup for a counterattack, but its ultimately turning into a mixed bag:

1 - The facilities may be heavily damaged, but I don't think they're beyond repair.

2 - At the same time, Khamenei is in hiding with no clear successor, with opportunists popping up offering to take over Iran. This is signalling imminent regime collapse, with the outcome being another leader favorable to the West at best, and a power vacuum at worst. 

3 - While it has been confirmed the enriched uranium was safely moved elsewhere, I am pretty sure they are nearby, probably somewhere in Aghanistan *at most*. If they had a cargo plane Israel/US would've intercepted it by now. It had to have been transported by ground.

I think Israel and the US are in a situation where if they don't achieve a decisive victory against Iran now, Iran will come back with a vengeance later and accelerate their nuclear weapons program as fast as possible. This is a regime that *cannot* be given a chance to get back up after this beating. That outcome will be much more dangerous to the region and the world by extension.

swagonflyyyy

You are missing:

5. **Essential facilities were undamaged, uranium safely moved.** Iran has around 12-13 known nuclear facilities and only 3 received noticeable strikes. USA/Israel hit:

* A centrifuge factory (not the only one in the country and Iran has more than enough to enrich uranium to make 50-100 bombs atm in a few months).
* Storage facilities that was emptied before any strikes and only received minor damage (caved-in entrances).
* One of several research facilities (not that Iran needs any further "research" anyway).

The Iranian nuclear was thus mostly delayed by the chaos in the country/murdered scientists than the actual bombardment to their facilities.

TripolarKnight

It is seemingly in Trump's interests to pacify the Israelis and the Iranians while looking tough with some mutual strikes with advanced warning and evacuations and now he wants it to blow over and go back to business as usual. 

It is the interests of the Israelis to neutralize the threat Iran has posed by opposing the existence of the State of Israel and funding Hamas and striking Israel. Iran vehemently opposes Zionism and US support of Zionism. 

Iran can and probably did move the refined uranium but not the equipment used to make it without more time. They have redundant facilities. The US didn't completely destroy their targets and did not target all facilities. Iran is using nuclear weapons as leverage. They don't actually want them, its against their religion and the weapons are very costly. They want security and they want the state of Israel to disappear. They may feel like the only way to get security is to build a bomb and they're going to use it as security against getting bullied. They will just threaten Israel with nuclear weapons every time there is any skirmish between them. There will likely be fewer direct skirmishes but Iran will still fund proxies opposed to Zionism. Israel will have fewer options to strike Iran and will have increased risk of attack by proxy. 

The nukes should be all a game of nuclear chicken but may result in an exchange between the nations. If there is an exchange between them the likely outcome is both have their major population centers annihilated and US boots are probably going to occupy and stabilize the areas and provide nuclear disaster assistance. Let us all hope they do not use the nukes.

VeryPogi

Iran had no intention of building a nuclear weapon. They were enriching uranium as a bargaining chip but mostly for energy. 10 years ago they realized that building a nuke that was deliverable by an ICBM was going to be more complicated than worth it. This is why they negotiated the deal with Obama and France. After Trump screwed that up they enriched 300ish kg to 60% as another barning chip knowing that going to 90% would take only few months. However, that would be enough for one implosion bomb that is huge and needs a bomber plane to deliver which is pretty pointless with today's SAM systems.
What Trump just did is a nothing burger. He just proved that he growls at the feet of Israel. He has a chance to redeem himself after he realized he was played by them with the whole "ceasefire"  thing. Let's see what happens. 
Also, don't be distracted by fancy bombs because this is all a distraction from the terrible things they are doing here. The budget bill, human rights violations, violations of constitution, corruption, trump coin, DODGE basically proving it was meaningless and just for musk to remove all investigations etc.

Traditional-Ad-3245

Well, they could probably turn it into a golf course. I hear they have the first three holes already

-Foxer

I would say the most likely scenario right now from what we know is that the Uranium was moved, there is satellite imaging of a bunch of trucks at the facility before the attack.


It's also likely the facility was damaged, based on debris blown out of a ventilation shaft. The level of damage isn't really possible to determine yet though. It could be totally destroyed and basically unsalvageable, it could be largely intact. We just don't know much beyond that a pressure change probably happened in the facility that blew some dust out. 


I would assume at this point Israel really wants to get their hands on the enriched Uranium, or at least deprive Iran of it. They would probably also want to get better Intel on the state of Iran's underground facilities, and maybe want to hit then again, although that would require the US to perform another strike. 

ScoobiusMaximus

&gt; Trump’s claiming the facilities were “obliterated,” while Iran says they moved their 60% enriched uranium to a secret location.

This could both be true. As far as preventing the development of a nuclear bomb, it's way more important to destroy the centrifuges than to bomb the uranium that Iran already has. In fact, they may have *wanted* Iran to remove the uranium first to prevent serious nuclear fallout.

To refine weapons grade uranium, you need precision-engineered centrifuges - and you need a lot of them. These are tightly controlled with export regulations, so they're easily the hardest and most expensive part of the nuclear bomb equation to obtain.

Meanwhile, Iran has 60% enriched uranium which is much higher than required for power generation but still is not high enough to build a bomb. Most of their highly-enriched stockpile was refined in the last few months, which underscores how (relatively) easy this is to obtain. 

I would not be surprised if the US saw the Iranians evacuating the uranium and waited until that was done to strike. That's total speculation my part but dropping bunker buster bombs on uranium seems like a recipe for a nuclear disaster. The real target would be the centrifuges. Without them, this uranium is good for nothing other than a power plant.

UnfoldedHeart

A shift from seeking a nuclear weapon to seeking the development of dirty bombs is a possibility if Iran manages to keep its already enriched uranium from emptying out of hidden stocks.

Instead of blowing up entire cities, giving one's enemies and their families early cancer as well as other health problems is a potential form of terror that the Iranian government might pursue if they're fanatic enough.

If the USA doesn't NOW fully commit to wiping out Iran's government and securing its uranium stockpiles, then talks and delusions of ceasefire may actually hurt the USA more in the long run.

Storyteller-Hero

There are photos of a large caravan leaving at least one site, prior to the attack when the whole world could see all the bombers moving to the Middle East.

Tex-Rob

It’s an unknowable answer.  It’s not clear how far their nuclear program was.  Israel lied about it for 20+ years.  The Trump regime has made the US completely untrustworthy.  What if there never was a nuclear program?

JDogg126

Hopefully they get one via china or north korea before israel violates the ceasefire and attacks again or performs an obvious false flag and claims iran violated it. Israels plan to destroy the greater middle east and destroy any other state's capacity in the area is pretty obvious.

help_abalone



Iran's nuclear program was zero before the strikes, and its zero after the strike. This has been lost in the news cycles but our own intelligence agencies have said Iran is years away from a bomb, only Israel's agencies have been saying they're close and there is incentive for them to drag US involvement. So until US agencies say the opposite, the chances remain at zero.

illegalmorality

Director of National Intelligence 25 March 2025, testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee:
"The IC (Intelligence Community) continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003. The IC is closely monitoring if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program."
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/congressional-testimonies/congressional-testimonies-2025/4059-ata-opening-statement-as-prepared

Through Trump's first 110 days in 2025 he only attended 12 of his DAILY security briefs. 
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/09/trump-intelligence-briefing-frequency-00338946

The assessment of U.S. intelligence is that Iran has not been pursuing Nuclear weapons. However Trump doesn't appear to trust and or care for what the U.S. the Intelligence community has to say. Trump fired his National Security Advisor Michael Walz on May 1st and essentially did away with the Cabinet position placing Sec of State Marco Rubio in charge of it. 

The OP asks if preserving the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal would have prevented direct U.S. use of force in Iran. I think the answer is clearly 'No'. The objectives of the deal have remained intact. Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons and wasn't developing them. Moreover Trump's decisions do not appear driven by U.S. Intelligence considering he seldom participates in briefs and doesn't communicate directly with Intelligence officials. 

Unfortunately Trump is combative with Journalists. So asking Trump why he chose to do this now or where he is getting his information from is a fools errand. Military incursions are life and death matters. People died last night. The American people should really demand more from the President than tweets and flag emojis.

8to24

The purpose of the 2015 Iran deal was exactly to prevent this kind of situation. Sure, the deal only slowed Iran's nuclear progress rather than completely ended it. But the only way to completely end their nuclear program would be to assassinate their nuclear scientists and bomb their nuclear refineries, and the whole point is to NOT do that. Plus, the Iran deal validated an emerging moderate political faction and weakness the theocratic side of the government, so the hope was that even if Iran DID eventually get nukes, maybe by then Iran could be a genuine ally in the region thanks to the warming relations the Iran deal provided. 

If that deal stayed in place, we have a very different foreign policy position in the middle east. It was genuinely one of the most high upside foreign policy achievements of my lifetime. The Trumpian approach to Iran basically forces Iran into an ideological enemy and pushes them into military conflicts with us and our allies, which also validates and empowers the theocratic regime. It's the most shortsighted and status quo approach possible, which all but guarantees there will be no actual movement towards peace. 

The only points in favor of Trump's approach are that the conflict being set up is probably winnable, ties with Israel are stronger than ever, and Iran's nuclear capabilities are probably most delayed. But is Israel really that good of an ally if they keep forcing us into military conflicts and destabilizing the region? And history has shown that we can't delay nuclear capabilities indefinitely, and wouldn't we rather Iran more or less like us when they do finally get that bomb online? And who cares if the war is winnable when we could just not have the war at all?

mormagils

I actually think so. Under the deal Iran still had a nuclear program but had limited their enrichment to 3.67%. Since the US withdrew from the deal Iran has gone to 60% enrichment. So I understand that intelligence agencies are saying that Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon program but there is not a legitimate civilian reason to enrich uranium to that level according to the IAEA.

Goldeneagle41

Yes it could. Pro-Israeli's will of course try to twist this in every way possible that it won't and war was inevitable, but the truth is Trump's action is the main reason we are here now.

CarefulScreen9459

I think if Hamas never attacks Israel in October 2023 this doesn’t happens. Israel essentially wiped out all of hamas and hezbollahs infrastructure because of said attack, whom Iran funds. With their chief allies rendered irrelevant against Israel, Iran was wide open for attack with little response possible. From this perspective Iran brought the attack on itself. 

But does the attack against Israel happen of the deal wasn’t ripped up? Maybe eventually at a later date, but we’ll never know now.

Dropping_A_Deuce

Probably, although the timing might have been different. From Israel's POV, there are actually two primary threats: Iran's nuclear program and their missile program. Besides what another poster mentioned on the deals limitations on the nuclear issue, it did nothing to address the missiles. Reports are that Iran had set a target to ramp up its missile production to build an arsenal of 10,000 missiles which could reach Israel, which basically make a nuke kind of redundant in the case of an attack on Israel. Given 7/10 - which Iran helped plan, although they apparently didn't know Sinwar was going to launch it when he did, Iran's support of Hizbullah's and the Houthi's attacks as well as the two Iranian missile attacks on Israel last year, Israel isn't currently in the mood to assume Iran doesn’t really mean to destroy it when it's hathering the means to do so.

eyl569

I think voting for a bit of sanity and stability would have stopped the war but we left that behind

maybeafarmer

Considering the IAEA declaration earlier this month that Iran was in breech of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which Iran ratified in 1970, it is doubtful the US withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) had much affect.  Earlier this month, Iran also announced that it would start building 6-generation centrifuges at an undisclosed location.  The only conceivable use for those 6-generation centrifuges would be to manufacture fissile material for nuclear weapons.  There is also evidence that Iran has been refining at levels very close to weapons grade.

[https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/06/12/iaea-declares-iran-in-breach-of-nuclear-nonproliferation-obligations/](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/06/12/iaea-declares-iran-in-breach-of-nuclear-nonproliferation-obligations/)

Tulsi Gabbard’s statements about Iran may have been confusing.  There was some nuance to Tulsi Gabbard’s testimony on Iran’s nuclear program to Congress.  After she stated that "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”, Tulsi Gabbard went on to testify "Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons."  The most challenging aspect of a nuclear weapons program is refining the fissile material.

It is also doubtful that Iran would try to assemble a nuclear weapon without a viable delivery system which they don't have.   Evidence indicates that Iran is still refining below weapons grade but there isn't a legitimate peaceful use for Iran's current enriched uranium stockpiles.  Press reports indicate that Iran has enough uranium to produce about 10 nuclear warheads.  

While there doesn't appear to be evidence that Iran is in the process of assembling nuclear warheads, there is no other legitimate purpose for the highly-enriched uranium that they are producing.  IAEA (and SIPRI) says Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% which is about 12x the enrichment required for most nuclear power reactors.  You could go up to 20% enrichment in some reactors, but generally most reactors use &lt;5% enriched uranium.  The 2015 JCPOA limited Iran's uranium enrichment to 3.67%.  In my opinion, it’s doubtful that Iran was in compliance with the JCPOA considering how rapidly they’ve supposedly progressed in uranium enrichment since the US withdrew from the agreement.

  
[https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2021/why-iran-producing-60-cent-enriched-uranium](https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2021/why-iran-producing-60-cent-enriched-uranium)  

More concerning than the US intelligence assessment was, arguably, the IAEA declaration on 12 June 2025 that Iran breached its nuclear nonproliferation obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) which Iran agreed to in 1970.  The NPT is much less restrictive than the JCPOA.  On 12 June, the IAEA stated that "Iran had consistently failed to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations"  Iran responded by announcing "that it will inaugurate a new enrichment facility at a secure, undisclosed location and replace its first-generation centrifuges at the Fordow enrichment facility with sixth-generation centrifuges."  

Considering that Iran is known to have &gt;60% enriched uranium, Iran's statement that it would build sixth generation centrifuges at an undisclosed location was highly provocative.  Israel attacked Iran the next day.  

There have also been other indicators of that Iran already had the ability to refine past 60%.  In 2023, the IAEA found traces of 83.7% highly enriched uranium (HEU) at Fordow.  Iran basically responded that they'd made it by accident.   (See pages 8 &amp; 9 of the link below.)  Need to get to about 90% HEU to build a nuclear weapon - so 83.7% is pretty close. 

[https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov2023-8.pdf](https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov2023-8.pdf)

Pompous_One

The ideal situation at this point is for the overthrow of the regime. That wouldn't have been possible under the JCPOA.

sirswantepalm

No it was a delaying measure for his opportunity to destroy hezbollah aside and hamas

FrogsEverywhere

Moot point because Trump went and tore up the agreement. Trump couldn’t stand the thought of Obama, a black man, brokering the deal. So I guess we’ll never know, because here and now we’re at war with Iran, and who knows what other countries are going to step into the ring next.

theanchorist

Imo no. They were getting help on the side from Russia, and those guys have broken every deal they've signed. What makes you think the Ayatollah of Iran would actually follow through?

Sebt1890

No.

Because Iran is and was to working to advance their nuclear bomb plan, and all the deal would have done is slow them down, not degrade it - which means they would be closer now than in 2015 - and eventually an intelligent mistake or clever ruse would let them go past the threshold and doom us to nuclear terrorism and blackmail

The reality is that the nuclear deal wasn't even particularly relevant. Israel started this war, and they did so based on a lie. They maintained that lie over the past several decades, even while the deal was in effect. I don't see any reason to believe Israel would not have continued lying.

KevinCarbonara

No.  Trump based this attack on vibes or orders from Netanyahu.  It certainly wasn't evidenced based or anything like that.  We know that he doesn't believe intelligence, and we know further that he doesn't read or get intelligence briefings anyways.

Stopper33

I think Israel would always have attacked Iran at some point while Trump was President. Netanyahu was always opposed to the deal and he knows exactly how to play Trump. If for some reason Trump didn’t revoke the deal then I think Israel would still have attacked Iran, knowing that ultimately they’d have American backing despite the deal.

SlightlyOTT

It very much depends on who you ask and what you believe.  

Thus far my experience has been that the answer people give to your question is highly correlated with their political predispositions, which is just to say that you are very unlikely to receive an unbiased and wholly objective answer here.  

I myself want to say that the JPCOA was working and would have saved us from the current moment of crisis, but I have to be wary of my biases and at least consider that I may not be taking the opposition's arguments as seriously as I should.  

And that's admittedly not easy.  

Nor is it at all psychologically comfortable for me to admit that the Trump administration --although granted, railroaded into it by the Israelis-- may have actually done the right thing in bombing Iranian Nuclear facilities, almost in spite of themselves and their incompetence.  

But here we are.  

Reality doesn't give a fuck about our feelings, so our job as responsible citizens is to figure out what actually makes sense whether it agrees with out preconceicved notions or not.

serpentjaguar

lol, no - Netanyahu got permission to start the war from Trump, nothing would have changed - they are always days away from a nuke, or hours, or they are hiding WMDs or they helped 9/11. etc etc.

LocationUpstairs771

Sorry, just entering in.. But, to me, the 2015 Proliferation Deal was for the rest of Obama's Term....sorry kids...but we needed to keep our country with enough supporters to keep the once source of energy for Iran. Let me now say this, I DO NOT SUPPORT VIOLENCE; however, this is America. New Reins want it their way so we have to conform to those again, even if it's inconsistent. But it's a strategic tactic aligned with many others, By Golly, it works. Good and the bad.  Periodt. We need the dominance, that what's this country represents. As he has stated "Greast country in the universe". Check this one: Had we left it play, we probably might end up still fighting. Crude oil is #1, nuclear is damn near, do the math. Someone is creating new terms and agreements. 

Take it out, let this play out. You never know....Two birds might not have to die. Or maybe, I still be doing up my at home. 

But we going to war...we going...

#webroke
#weneedmoney
#theeconomy

May sounds weird, but that how it popped out.

VeekaVeeks



Apparently before the deal they were lying to inspectors, I doubt they were 100% honest after the deal.   (cits 1,2,3)

&gt;My question is this: Would Israel and the U.S. be doing direct attacks against Iran if this deal was still in place?

Israel has long wanted to bomb Iran, before the deal, after the deal, not having faith in Iran to obey by the terms. 

(cit 4) 

  
I don't trust Iran, and I don't trust Israel  the only things I trust either country on, is when they say they want to attack / destroy each other. 

I didn't immediately think bombing Iran was a good thing or a bad thing.   I'm still not sure.   Iran getting a nuke would be bad.  bombing Iran also seems like its bad.  



1.  [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/28/iran-lied-un-inspectors-qom-nuclear](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/28/iran-lied-un-inspectors-qom-nuclear)
2. [https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/delayed-inspections-jcpoa-provisions-for-iaea-access-to-suspicious-sites/](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/delayed-inspections-jcpoa-provisions-for-iaea-access-to-suspicious-sites/)
3. [https://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-iran-nuclear-20170830-story.html](https://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-iran-nuclear-20170830-story.html)
4. [https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/24/world/meast/iran-israel](https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/24/world/meast/iran-israel)

discourse_friendly

Allowing Iran to have nuclear arms development as a bargaining chip was an extremely weak play to begin with.  It never should have happened.  At least the outcome we have now isn’t a nuclear Iran.  And let’s be honest, the dismantling of their program was always the goal.  Whether achieved peacefully or militarily.

dendron01

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal only limited Iran’s ability to enrich for 10-15 years.

So if the nuclear deal stayed in place, Iran would be steering enrichment now-ish with any sort of treaties preventing them from doing so.

Now of course part of the reason Trump, Israel, and Saudi Arabia criticized the deal is because inspectors could be denied access to military facilities, and delayed inspection into civilian by 24 days.

So the inspection process would only slow a bad-faith signatory (which Iran most certainly is).

Implicit in the 2015 deal is the hope that Iran would have softened its tone in that time, and gotten a bit closer to the west with the economic advantages.

There isn’t a lot of evidence in that hope as a strategy, because almost immediately after sanctions were lifted Iran upped its funding of its proxy terror groups in Hezbollah / Hamas / Houthis.

To believe we wouldn’t have a problem means basically need to believe that Iran would have bought in in spirit, not just malicious compliance.

The forcing function here was Iran’s proxy groups going from “annoyance” to “existential threat”.

Part of the reason Hamas has felt emboldened to attack Israel is because stupid western liberals fell for Palestinian propaganda in the 2014 Gaza war, so they thought they could repeat it under another democratic president that would too waver in response while they blast TikTok with misinformation and narratives.

That seemed likely to happen either way.

This is just as much about moving the battleground from Tel Aviv and the straight of Hormuz back to Iran and holding them accountable as it is about the nuclear program.

Kman17

Israel engaged in a first strike against Iran, then spent $285m per day on air defense when Iran responded, then whined about it to the US and asked for Trump to do Trump things. The thought that a treaty would have stopped lawless imperialists is laughable.

aworldwithoutshrimp

Yes and no.

It would have prevented a direct US excuse to become involved. 

But any president can just make up an excuse, as we have seen. And Israel would have still pressured each of our presidents for a regime change war, escalating exchanges with Iran until we hurry to save Israel from the hole it dig itself.

Kronzypantz

Trump treats everything like it is a New York real estate deal from the 1980s.

Steve Witkoff, who was Trump’s representative negotiating with Iran in April, had no experience with nuclear issues. Witkoff is an old friend of Trump and a real estate developer. I heard this on the New York Times podcast called “the Daily” that had an episode in April that explained this. Here’s a link to that episode: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0MtGRg9hziBLHVbpWa5vJx?si=vSbSPK51SBu64r3LI40USw

This podcast explained how the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often referred to as the Iran nuclear deal, was a multilateral agreement between Iran and several world powers (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, and Germany) reached in 2015. The agreement aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. President Obama was instrumental in negotiating the JCPOA. President Trump, however, withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018, citing concerns about Iran's compliance. Trump withdrew from this deal and created the conditions that lead to yesterday’s bombing. Of course, Fox News is blaming Biden for the failure of these negotiations but it is clear that Trump was  just willing to give 2 months to negotiate a nuclear deal. But since Trump walked away from the last deal, there was very little reason for Iran to agree to a deal with Trump in 2 months. The U.S. is now engaged in military conflict in Middle East because Trump could not negotiate a deal like Obama did. Or maybe Trump didn’t really want to negotiate. Yesterday’s military action was of result of Trump’s inability to negotiate like Obama did.

MilfordSparrow

Simple answer is no. I am 55 yrs old and Gaza has been part of the news cycle for my entire lifetime. There has been and always will be conflict in that region with everyone fighting over some scrap of land considered special. If they haven't been able to resolve the religious, political conflict in 4000 yrs, I doubt a modern day signed treaty will.

Responsible_Rock_573

The 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) wasn’t perfect, but it was working. Iran’s nuclear program was being monitored, enrichment was capped, and diplomacy was still on the table.

Then Trump pulled the U.S. out in 2018 — against the advice of most experts and allies — and everything unraveled. Iran resumed enrichment, tensions escalated, and the region edged closer to direct conflict.

Without the deal, there were fewer guardrails, less communication, and more room for provocation — from *all* sides.

So no, the deal wouldn’t have solved every problem. But it definitely could’ve prevented us from landing exactly where we are now: on the edge of another war nobody asked for.

Middle-Name-2739

Iran wasn’t the problem with the JCPOA.  The problem was the asshole Republicans and Likud who wanted it to fail.

harrumphstan

That’s a really important question. It seems like the breakdown of the deal removed some key diplomatic channels and increased tensions on all sides, which might have made the conflict harder to avoid.

Unfair-Ad1675

No. Bibi was literally two days away from his coalition falling apart because Orthodox Jews are exempt from the draft and he wanted to change that.

The Iranian crisis was a desperate bid to avoid getting destroyed first in Parliament then the ballot box.

So far it's working.

SunderedValley

If nothing else, if the JCPOA were still in place, the IAEA would know exactly what Iran had been doing.  The system of monitoring and inspection made it next to impossible for Iran to cheat.

MJcorrieviewer

My understanding is when the jcpoa was still in force, US intelligence, as well as the intelligence services of our allies, all agreed that Iran had not enriched uranium past 3.5%. it was not until after Trump walked away from the deal that Iran started enriching uranium past that point. It is important to note, however, that they never enriched uranium to the 90% necessary for nuclear weapons. In other words, Iran never started enriching uranium past what was needed for domestic nuclear energy (2-4%) until Trump tanked the jcpoa. So no, we would not be here otherwise.

SinisterBarrister

Probably yes, if Iran was in fact being honest about not pursuing the bomb which seems to have been true because Gabbard said they werent. Then she was left out in the cold and bullied to change her message.

petdoc1991

The only thing that could have prevented this is if Trump wasn't elected in 2016.

Everyone that was eligible to vote in the USA that didn't vote for HRC in 2016 and KH in 2024 is complicit. Trump was so obviously unqualified in 2016 that claims of "I didn't think it could be this bad" are embarrassing, the claim itself admits they thought Trump would be bad.

If we survive this, the country needs a reckoning. A political system that allows someone like Trump to enter its highest office is unsustainable and a threat to the entire world. Reforms are obviously needed.

InFearn0

The American intelligence community told Trump that Iran wasn't building Nukes.

I can't imagine a treaty from Iran stating they weren't gonna build nukes would hold many more water.

  
I'm not even sure electing Harris would have prevented this from happening.

  
Israel is a genocidal state with violent intent. They were gonna launch an unprompted strike on Iran at some point no matter what we did. And the American government was would be only too happy to back them up.

Reld720

Yes!  
  
I was thinking about this very question when I first heard the news.

Assuming the strikes were successful, all of this bombing has gotten us back to where we were in 2015 (without the inspections, of course).

The 2015 [JCPOA ](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iran-nuclear-deal-trump-united-states/story?id=123020009)was typical of a deal you strike with an adversary. It accomplishes the goal, but nobody is fully happy. That's the nature of negotiation and compromise (the "art of the deal", if you will). That said, it was a good deal and arrived at *peacefully*.

I don't think Trump actually believed the Iran nuclear deal was bad (assuming he was even aware of the provisions). I get the impression that he was just blindly trying to undo everything that Obama had accomplished.  
  
Trump has a special hatred for Obama. I don't know to what extent it's a racial thing or whether he held a grudge after [Obama roasted him at the White House Correspondent's Dinner in 2011](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/watch-inside-the-night-president-obama-took-on-donald-trump/).

judge_mercer

[deleted]

I think we can also ponder if we didn’t just get a much better nuclear deal.

Here’s the new deal: we aren’t monitoring anything, we aren’t offering anything, we aren’t going to be leveraged or even worry about it at all. The next Iran deal will be how much of their oil fields are we taking

Israel has no reason to stop right now until Iran is finished

RCA2CE

When did Iran reach an agreement 
Last I checked they said they wouldn’t pause which is why the zios attacked.

Doansauce

Israel wants the USA Iran war so bad, can't even get Hamas under control. Plus people trying to tell us Hamas is hiding behind civilians or using civilians as a human shield but they can target Iranian Commanders on the 4th floor without destroying the whole building... Israelis just love to kill Palestinian women and children.. I am tired of those who are still trying to defend Israel, most of them are birged nhamedu people too...

InformationStrange47

We have always been close allies with the muslim world and it should continue this way. We don’t need a diplomacy with Israel.

Mersault7

https://preview.redd.it/k1dut47fk27f1.png?width=749&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=a5297ae697c58dd764067f85ee9d9fa5898bcee3

PP writing me a DM, that they want to do the same to Eritrea 😂

Some ppl have no life

EritreanPost__

Kooky_Ad_8110

The escalation of conflict between the US and Iran over nuclear ambitions raises questions about regional security and international laws.

US-Iran Conflict Over Nuclear Program

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