Public sentiment regarding Taiwan-China military tensions is characterized by deep concern over potential conflict, with many commenters expressing solidarity with Taiwan and skepticism of China's military intentions. There is a defensive atmosphere keen on preserving Taiwan's sovereignty, yet a balance emerges with critiques of U.S. involvement and acknowledgment of Taiwan's vulnerabilities. Overall, fear of escalation into war coexists with calls for vigilance and support.

Taiwan

China

United States

I'm afraid if China start the invasion there is nothing we can do, just watched the war plan from Daily mail world and I don't see us stopping China.

[deleted]

Meanwhile nobody gave a shit what Israel was doing. Threat my ass.

Glockisthebest

serendipity777321

The US doesn't even officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country

The3mbered0ne

That's like saying New Zealand launches the largest military exercises in its history...

Tzilbalba

In Ukraine, we have seen what a relatively small country can do against a large aggressor. They have subjugated Hong Kong largely without problems, Taiwan will hopefully make China bleed - the one-child policy will leave many, many parents without children and Winnie Poh knows this well.

myusrnmeisalrdytkn

oh yeah China is a threat to humanity. meanwhile Israel atacked 5 countries, invade lebanon and gaza and occupy syrian territories

popocacagato

And who said this is my problem? Or from the USA? Or from NATO?

Deniscwb

US won't do shit militarily. It's not worth the cost. If you think otherwise you are the one who is wrong.

Substantial_Fan_9582

dang_idiot

https://preview.redd.it/hjf3k9g5uvbf1.jpeg?width=1179&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=575b65fa4e0b062214aeb9a356085aa16177a652

SpotResident6135

Short answer: Yes.


Long answer: China is still upscaling it's naval capabilities as it does have enough power for an invasion but faces two major challenges. First, how big will the group of outside support for Taiwan be? Possible considerable contributions could come from not just the US which is of course the main antagonist from Beijings perspective, but also from Japan, South Korea, Australia and maybe Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines or even Vietnam.
Given their dependency on Taiwanese microchip manufacturing, a limited force from the EU and the UK is to be expected as well.


It's one thing to invade a (heavily armed) island, it's a complete other thing to sustain a full siege around it for an indefinite amount of time until they surrender.

sophisticatedbuffoon

haze_gray2

Bottom line up front: China intends to invade before 2049 and is identifying ways to accomplish this without self-destruction.

**'The Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation'** is a strategic vision set by Xi to transform China into a "prosperous, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist state" by 2049, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. It is assumed that this vision includes taking Taiwan back. 

The Chinese military is undergoing massive development and strengthening, including turning the PLAN into a blue water fleet with major expeditionary capabilities. China carries out regular 'exercises' around Taiwan which may primarily be sabre-rattling but are also still genuine exercises. It also recently showcased 'invasion bridgeheads' to overcome beach obstacles. In short: China will have the capabilities to invade and conquer Taiwan before 2049.

However, the cost is still extremely unclear:

Will Taiwan be able to count on allies (esp the US) to help defend it? 

How many casualties and how much damage will mainland China take from strategic strikes and counter-attacks? 

What will be the economic fallout be? China relies on world trade and becoming a pariah to major economies will be devastating. It is developing a global economic zone of influence through Belt and Road and bilateral trade partnerships that have already replaced much of the west's economic influence. Will this ever be sufficient to cover losses from reduced western trade?

ShoveTheUsername

China has bridge boats for the invasion of Taiwan. The invasion will happen while Trump is President. China is counting on Trump to not defending Taiwan.

FirstWave117

They certainly want to retake Taiwan and are extremely vocal about how it is rightfully apart of China and needs to be reunified so the inclination is there.

Judging by the fact that they haven’t invaded Taiwan I would speculate that they are not confident that they could successfully invade Taiwan. Otherwise they would have already done so.

Steamsagoodham

Protip: China invading Taiwan would be the dumbest thing China could do. At the same time, however, they could easily win a war by bombing Taiwan's ports and airfields (possibly even through artillery) and starving Taiwan out.


That is the real problem with Taiwan; China's ability to get boots on the island, supply them, and win, is limited, but China's ability to starve Taiwan out while bombing them, is not. Tyranny of distance: all of Taiwan is within 300-400mi of the second strongest global airpower.


That said, China probably wants the island back by referendum and treaty, not through arms. Any serious war will see Taiwan's factories bombed out, a missile exchange damaging a lot of the Chinese industrial base, and Taiwanese emigrating to Japan and the United States.


Reunification by referendum means that at least the factories would be spared, and more Taiwanese would stay post-reunification.

Instrume

I think they can quickly occupy Taiwan now, even with the interference of the US Navy here. Of course, it will be difficult for them to go further. Occupying Taiwan itself is not a cost-effective deal.

antimathman

Unless the US steps in to intervene China will invade Taiwan. If they invade Taiwan the semiconductor industry and TSMC will be in the toilet.

dave200204

The Chinese can “retake” Taiwan in numerous ways.  There are islands claimed by Taiwan literally 5 km off the coast of China.   They could easily take these islands and say “mission complete”.  Taiwan isn’t doing anything that China doesn’t want them to do.   They could blockade that island and starve them out

coffeejj

As far as I know, China has been preparing for both scenarios - maintaining trade with the West while ensuring the ability to decouple. This includes the fact that they have begun to significantly expand farmland, and they have been seriously studying the possibility of ensuring food in wartime.

The problem here is that Taiwan has also been away from war since the 1950s, and its troops have never faced real war.

For Japan and South Korea, the biggest problem is that once the war starts, their trade routes will be directly in the war zone. This will affect Japan far more than the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the EU region.

CaptainGustav

I can see a blockade coming. Just starve Taiwan out and cut the supply of chips to everyone else.

Boring_Clothes5233

China wants to but their ability to conduct an amphibious landing is quite a limited if nearly non-existent. They would probably have to drop paratroopers in order to pose a real threat. That being said there is a reason why Taiwan semiconductor is looking to build plants in the US:


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9ljwgg9y0o

LeftCoastMariner

No. Im just gonna leave this [here](https://theddaystory.com/discover/what-is-d-day/) for anyone thinks China is gonna invade Taiwan. Just google a picture of D-Day and understand Scope and magnitude it takes to literally invade a beach. Sustaining 100,000 soldiers for a month. The Normandy landings required 1,200 warships, 4,800 landing craft, and 800+ merchant vessels to land Millions of tons of supplies to sustain an outfit of 156,000 men at landing first 24 hours let alone supply them and a million men for a MOnth. China has 240 warships none of which are big gun battleships capable of sustained action bombardment. Unlike USA, china doesn't have a military sealift command to move troops by thousands so instead they'll likely move supplies/manpower via container ships all of which can be easily picked off. and Normandy invasion never had to content with [drones](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/22/how-marine-drones-have-become-essential-in-the-fight-against-sea-mines), [anti-ship missiles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxpwIsZCgtM) and smart mines.

China only has 60 Amphibious warfare ships to carry 26,000 men at a time, transit time is 5 hours plus loading/unloading times. China has a large fleet of tanker/commercial cargo ships but they require huge cranes, only a few have ramps for offload. And chinese would suffer since these ships carry chinese economy. 

US history aware macarthur's landing Inchon in 1950. in month, north koreans deployed hundreds of sea mines to thwart future landings. Taiwan is innovating new sea mines self propelled to hunt ships

SpikedPsychoe

Pretty sure they prefer to make money than to invade countries.

jvproton

This is Wendy's sir, what would you like?

mantawolf

Taiwan’s defense strategy once relied on holding off a Chinese invasion just long enough for the U.S. to intervene. But trust in that support is fading, especially with Trump. Taiwan can no longer expect a repeat scenario of the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. In response, Taiwan is now shifting its focus to long-term conflict readiness, preparing for blockades. Lai is unapologetically promoting civilian resilience through stockpiles and public drills. Taiwan will need to resist occupation on its own and learn from Ukraine’s current struggles.

WinterizedLibyan

Why does the Pacific fleet exist doing exercises with Taiwan?

I can say that it would be reasonable for Taiwan to not expect American troops on the ground on the island but support with weaponry (drones, artillery, missiles)

A hypothetical war would mean that the US would use its Navy and Air Force, I thought that was consensus.

WalterWoodiaz

This war will definitely happen and probably in the next few years when Xi is not too old and can still take the credit of "unification".

If Taiwan does not want to be the next Hong Kong, they need to put in more effort to prepare and mentally harden themselves. I watched quite a few street interviews of Taiwanese and they mostly just expect the US to save them. Not likely when Trump is the president to be honest, especially if China proposes some juicy deals in advance.

The Taiwanese government needs to train the people on guerilla warfare and stockpiling ammunition, drones and RPGs.

DaySecure7642

They're being realistic and know they cannot rely on the US. No country can.

voyagerdoge

FelizIntrovertido

After taking away Taiwan's nuclear weapons program, the US might now consider back out of TW. 

Has Xi Jinping said "thank you" to America?

ApostleofV8

Taiwan has seen how the battlefield has changed to significantly favor the defenders with the new drone warfare paradigm in Ukraine.

They probably reasoned that it's now viable for them to defend against China on their own, or even that China wouldn't even risk an invasion even if they explicitly declare independence.

genshiryoku

How is this the unthinkable? This should be the standard moving forward. I am proud of the United States geopolitical capabilities, but I am strongly against countries having to rely on us from a sovereignty point of view.

bunchalingo

It will have to create new partners and be ready for no US support

archjh

The US fought bitterly leading up to UN 2758 to amend the resolution to recognise Taiwan as a seperate member. What followed was a intricate web of dependency, deceit and cooperation between US, China and Taiwan for the next half a century. Strategic ambiguity may have had its use, it is ultimately a duplicitous position that alleys the fears of no one, while implicitly taking on a moral obligation. 

Magicalsandwichpress

With their manufacturing capabilities, they can churn out significantly more low cost drones than Ukraine ever can and give China a bloody nose. Even Ukraine is doing a fantastic job of making low cost and simple to use drones in the middle of a war under constant bombardment. If Taiwan preps for it during peace time, they can have significant deterrence built up should the need arises.

Assuming of course they don't get Nuked by China. God help us all if it ever comes to that.

Mysterious-Coconut24

ChewyNapkin

If Taiwan wins it will almost certainly abandon the one-China policy and officially declare independence. The world should follow suit by recognizing it. The one China thing is a polite fiction that's gotten way out of hand.

Kahing

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&gt; # [Taiwan president calls for peace and dialogue with China amid heightened military activity](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/901b831599d0a652b23d86459baf10a8cf59fba0/0_334_3751_3003/master/3751.jpg?width=1200&amp;height=630&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;overlay-align=bottom%2Cleft&amp;overlay-width=100p&amp;overlay-base64=L2ltZy9zdGF0aWMvb3ZlcmxheXMvdGctZGVmYXVsdC5wbmc&amp;enable=upscale&amp;s=a509cb6339ed1360a91ed147d6f1afde)
&gt; 
&gt;   
&gt;   
&gt; Taiwan’s president has reiterated calls for peace and dialogue with China as he marked one year in office, amid heightened Chinese military activity and worsening political division at home.
&gt; 
&gt; [Lai Ching-te](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/new-taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-profile-bio-details), who was [inaugurated a year ago](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/20/lai-ching-te-taiwan-new-president), told reporters on Tuesday that a war would have “no winners”, but Taiwan would continue to strengthen its defences to ward off [a Chinese invasion or attempt to annex it by force](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/28/china-defence-ministry-taiwan-threat).
&gt; 
&gt; “It is the aggressor who undermines peace … Taiwan is a peace-loving nation, and our society values goodwill,” he said on Tuesday in response to questions after his formal address. “I am deeply committed to peace, because peace is priceless, and in war there are no winners.”
&gt; 
&gt; “However, whilst our pursuit of peace is sincere, it must not be naive.”
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; He urged Beijing to restart dialogue with his government on equal terms, “using exchanges to replace hemming in, dialogue to replace confrontation”.
&gt; 
&gt; China’s ruling Communist party (CCP) cut all ties and dialogue with Taiwan’s government when Lai’s predecessor, [Tsai Ing-wen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/tsai-ing-wen-former-professor-on-course-to-be-most-powerful-woman-in-chinese-speaking-world), won the 2016 election for their pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive party. The CCP considers the party to be unlawful separatists.
&gt; 
&gt; In response to the president’s speech, China’s official state media, Xinhua, accused Lai of “deliberately escalating” cross-Strait tensions.
&gt; 
&gt; “Since taking office, the Lai Ching-te administration has brazenly pursued ‘Taiwan independence’ to serve partisan and personal gain, charging headlong down a path of division and confrontation that threatens the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait,” it said.
&gt; 
&gt; In recent weeks China’s military launched larger than usual numbers of planes and ships into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone – an average of about 20 planes and 11 navy and coastguard ships each day.
&gt; 
&gt; Taiwan authorities had publicly warned of likely Chinese retaliation or pre-emptive activity in response to the speech. Last week government officials told reporters they couldn’t rule out military drills in the days after Lai spoke, and on Monday the coast guard said Beijing could launch “political warfare” to disrupt public morale in Taiwan.
&gt; 
&gt; Lai has taken a more [publicly assertive stance against China’s aggression](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/12/dont-panic-but-dont-relax-taiwans-plan-to-use-7-eleven-chains-as-wartime-hubs) than his predecessor Tsai, which analysts had been expecting his inauguration anniversary speech to continue. Earlier this month he said [Taiwan was facing a similar threat to Europe in the 1930s](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/08/taiwan-president-europe-second-world-war)**.**
&gt; 
&gt; However the speech on Tuesday in the end made no mention of China or its annexation plans, and his related comments only came in response to questions in the subsequent press conference. Instead the speech focused on domestic pledges to reduce carbon emissions, plans to deal with the US Trump administration’s punitive tariffs, and domestic political turmoil.
&gt; 
&gt; “The trade de-escalation reached between Beijing and Washington has generated anxiety in Taipei over whether the issue of Taiwan may emerge in future US-China talks,” said Amanda Hsiao, a director in Eurasia Group’s China practice, referring to fears Beijing may seek a softening of [the US’s longstanding support of Taiwan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/02/pete-hegseth-indicates-us-backing-taiwan). “This uncertainty may be a factor for why Lai chose not to reiterate his views on the China threat in a high profile speech.”
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Amid worsening domestic political turmoil Lai announced he would offer national security briefings to the chair of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT and another rival party, the TPP, control the majority of seats in Taiwan’s legislature and have been accused of blocking Lai’s agenda.
&gt; 
&gt; The opposition parties have accused Lai and his Democratic Progressive party of increasing tensions with China and stifling opposition. [In the name of national security](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/27/taiwan-jails-four-soldiers-including-three-who-worked-in-presidential-office-for-spying-for-china), Lai’s administration has increased [scrutiny of Chinese-born people in Taiwan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/27/taiwan-chinese-passport-id-card-crackdown), and cracked down on public statements that support Beijing’s goals.
&gt; 
&gt; The KMT welcomed the new briefings as Lai having “finally taken a small step” to end partisan conflict, but said he had much more to do.

  
  
  
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empleadoEstatalBot

Honestly he’s been extremely aggressive so this is welcomed news. The majority of Taiwan don’t want a military escalation with China so it’s good to see they’re not being ignored.

AlbertoRossonero

Not too surprised when United States is currently in a political limbo with where it wants to stand as a global power piece. That said, if Taiwan can bargain some semblance of a short term non-aggression pact with China, they might avoid war ever becoming a topic forever because China is struggling with their own version of a population age disparity crisis as well, and the economic instability across multiple rural regions have now become a severe issue to the point of civil unrest. China won't have time to assume war on neighbouring countries if it's people rise up in protest, and who knows where USA will stand in the next presidency.

lan60000

I think the real curveball is Trump.

If the DPP oversees a massive decrease in economic activity, even if it’s not even their fault, you might get the KMT again, who are more pro-Chinese. Trump could do a number of things that threaten the Taiwanese economy. If Lai is seen both fanning Chinese aggression (again, even if it’s not his fault) and not protecting the Taiwanese economy enough, the DPP may be voted out the next election and you may see a switch up in the trend of cross-strait relationships.

vhu9644

Increased military tensions have been reported between Taiwan and China, with Taiwan conducting its largest military drills amid fears of invasion.

Taiwan-China Military Tensions

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