The public sentiment regarding the US government shutdown is predominantly negative, with widespread frustration directed at both political parties, particularly Republicans and President Trump. Many commenters express anger over the impact of the shutdown on federal workers, social services, and the economy, alongside a general disillusionment with the political system's efficacy and accountability. Users express a desire for significant systemic change, with concerns for vulnerable populations and a critical view of Congressional pay during the shutdown.

Republicans

Democrats

Congress

President Trump


Friendly reminder that all **top level** comments must:  

1.  start with "answer: ", including the space after the colon (or "question: " if you have an on-topic follow up question to ask),

2.  attempt to answer the question, and   

3.  be unbiased

Please review Rule 4 and this post before making a top level comment:

http://redd.it/b1hct4/

Join the OOTL Discord for further discussion: https://discord.gg/ejDF4mdjnh


*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/OutOfTheLoop) if you have any questions or concerns.*

AutoModerator

Answer:  President Nixon was refusing to spend money that Congress had allocated to the budget. Congress then passed the Budget Act of 1974 which created the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO weakened the power of the president. 

Normally a president would have vetoed such a law. However, Nixon was facing impeachment for the Watergate scandal and he signed the law. 

This law   created the notion of a funding gap, and there have been 22 since then. In 1980, President Carter mused that the Anti Deficiency Act (1884, 1950) required the government to shutdown during a funding gap and his attorney general of course agreed. 

Because this gave presidents the ability to blame Congress for shutdowns, every president since then has followed Carter’s doctrine. The U.S. has shutdown after funding gaps ever since. 

Most other countries don’t have shutdowns because 

* some are dictatorships

* some don’t have the equivalent of the Budget Act and Anti Deficiency Act

* some executive branches of some countries have greater control of the ~~government~~ budget

* some are parliamentary systems where the executive branch is controlled by the legislative branch and failure to pass a budget usually forces a new general election

Mission-Carry-887

Answer: it's not that common, but had become more common recently. 


We've had shutdowns that lasted a few days throughout history, but wasn't really "common" until the 90's

3qtpint

Answer:  more than half of the government shutdown days that have ever happened have happened under Trump.  79 days total (so far), of which 41 days have been under Trump.

areyouhighson

Answer: I believe that most other countries have laws that either immediately cause a re-election on budget failure, or allow the government to spend over its allocated budget while waiting for a new budget to be decided on.

In the former case, governments dont want to risk replacement by triggering the election. In the latter, failing to decide the budget in time doesnt actually shut down the government.

lolghurt

[deleted]

Based off of previous shutdown, anywhere from 3 weeks to 4 weeks :(

MissMerida2121

It will last up until the 15th of October or maybe a few days later. Military personnel families will need their paycheck on the 15th.

siruberjames

Longest was 34 days. I'd say could be three weeks

ApprehensiveArmy7755

Air traffic controllers. They are required to come in to work even though they aren't getting paid. They will be back-paid (historically, but who knows with this administration). They're already over worked. They'll start calling in sick. If they are or are not doesn't matter. This will cause delays. Delays cascade and compound. Pretty quick every flight is delayed and people start asking why. This is what happened last major shutdown with Trump as President. 


There are two major factors here that will make this worse though: Trump has been gutting the FAA, and air traffic controllers are ALREADY on a major strain. And the entire economy is under unusual strain. So we could just see a fucking major air accident before we see this breaking point.

GreenFox1505

Before the 15th and nothing will happen. It never does. It's always just for show.

Original_Load_1187

I think they're going to try to make it last as long as possible and use it as a pathetic bargaining chip to destroy as much as they can in the process. They're ripping the government apart from the inside out.

aasteveo

4 weeks with the dems cracking first. There is will no healthcare concessions. There will be some sort of compromise. The other less likely but possible option is Trump will taco and give in to heath care demands. But nothing will happen in the short term

magnumopus44

My rough estimate is that it will end on October 28th or 29th. This is based on the estimated pay cycle of TSA and FAA essential employees.

Les_Turbangs

Until the stock market goes down. It's a win win for the rich, politicians especially gop. Stocks are up they're getting money, federal workers checks are backpaid, you don't get paid you get mad and humans are easily manipulated so it's their chance to gain voters or protest the opposing party

Ok-Performance-1432

A month or more. A month is a long time when you're a government employee who's affected by a lot of this political BS.

Wantons124

Nothing will happen in the end. They will pass a CR and then do the whole thing again in a year.

dennismullen12

nathingz

Personally, I'm hoping it lasts until Republicans finally realize they can't just brow beat the Democrats into everything they want, and they come to the table to negotiate. I don't care if it takes months or years. Fuck those fuckers on the right. They don't get to act like Eric Cartman, taking their toys and going home, when things don't go 100% their way. Stupid, childish motherfuckers.

MyFurryIsStinky

Maybe it will be, in a way, permanent. The White House sets its own budget, calls its own shots. This is only slightly removed from the rubber stamps of Congress and the Supreme Court.

Koorsboom

1Litwiller

I’m guessing Oct 16. I cannot explain why. Outcome will be the Dems mostly fold.

thebabes2

As long as they can. They been saying since the civil war ended that the federal government is broken and now they’re out to prove it.

Harbinger2001

It will be over quickly. Republicans will nuke the filibuster and pass their budget.

hobard

I think Republicans will watch the country burn to the ground before they give an inch.

Electric-Sheepskin

The longest was 34 days during trumps first term (Dec 18 through Jan 19). I have a sneaking suspicion this will be a lot longer. Because when it does officially reopen, jobs, unemployment, and CPI inflation data gets calculated and released. 

When that happens, it will not be pretty. Enjoy and take advantage of your 401k’s now. Because they’re taking a huge hit when Uncle Sam is back online. And if you haven’t already, you might want to start buying some precious metals.

2dazeTaco

Government shut down?  Nah more like let’s fire all federal employees with morals, the news stated that federal employees were not going to get a pay check but the congress will continue to get paid!?

Imaginary-Record-112

I think flight delays will start after 2-3 weeks.  As we get closer to Thanksgiving, there will be more pressure. So probably 2-3 weeks on short end, no longer than 6 weeks.  

I’m probably of the minority opinion, but I don’t think the dems have much reason to cave.  Polling seems to be in their favor and it’ll be a huge win if they can get the healthcare concessions.

blevster

At the rate things are going down there, the outcome will be an official dictatorship.

Extra-Succotash-9846

2-6 months. GOP isn’t interested in discussing anything. So it’ll just linger along while shithead dumbfuck totters around. Once he’s no longer maybe a few immature adults may start talking after the country is in a Great Recession to dwarf the previous Great Depression.

Amadeus_1978

I am afraid that the Republicans don't want to reopen the government

IGotSkills

Really hope Schumer won’t cave. We’re a federal employee family, but this is more important

KeeblerElff

Not long enough and massive pork spending when it comes back.

HannyBo9

At least the 17th but probably later than that

SafetyMan35

hagschlag

It will last almost 4 weeks and 23 million Americans will pay way more than they used to for health care

flatearthconspiracy

Northern Ireland watching the US government shutdown: Amateurs!

Time_Ocean

Can someone explain how the federal employees are being paid or if they're not? Like VA, USPS, TSA, Patent office, Passport control/dept of state, Medicare admin, Medicaid admin, parks dept, etc. Is there a contingency that allows these people to come to work and get paid? Are these people just doing their job hoping for back pay? And, while we're at it, are the last 2 govt shut downs handled similarly in regards to these people and their pay?

Gingerbreaddoggie

Straight up depends how desperate a group of people who give no shits about their constituents are to keep power. 

We could be closed for another week, a month, the architects pushing for this shit show very clearly said they are willing to start a civil war to achieve their goals, for all we know this could be the start of that.

Or republicans will cave, I full on expect Dems to cave if the option is civil war or open the government.

bobbymcpresscot

The american people will suffer and corporations/oligarchs will continue to dictate our future. 

extraqueso

2 to 3 months. The outcome will be as always, **They** get richer **We** get poorer

YourMeteorologist333

Idk where we're at timeline wise for not having enough approved budget to pay bonds. If that happens a US default would be catastrophic. US' credit would take a hit making borrowing more expensive for a long time if not permanent and the US dollar would take a huge hit. I suspect the rich people that pay off the politicians won't allow that to happen but I've also read that tanking the dollar is part of Project 2025 so maybe this is all part of the plan.

beckisnotmyname

Few weeks, downgrade of credit, weaker dollar, services failing

ISwallowedALego

My biggest fear is that the Republicans planned this and they’re going to use it as an a pretext to take the nuclear option and kill the filibuster, and Project 2025 will ramp up to insane levels when they can just pass whatever they want with a simple majority.

NatalieVonCatte

I think if it last long enough for military to go two pay cycles without pay, it will turn into chaos in the formations.

brokenmessiah

Until Mike Johnson can blackmail a few Republicans to be against the Epstein file release. After that, they'll pass a funding bill.

vagrantprodigy07

Unfortunately I bet the Dems cave this week.

tizod

jmnugent

The White House internally said 47 days for the memes

kakashisma

I guess it depends how long it will take for the American people to grow a pair and stand up to their fascist government

giantshortfacedbear

statistacktic

I think it could easily exceed 30 days. GOP is overly cocky and are overplaying their hand though.

FR23Dust

Indefinitely Trump doesn't want the Epstein files released. Democrats have the votes to force it. Johnson is refusing to swear in the new Democrat. 


Trump rapes kids and wants to get away with it. He will send ICE to bludgeon the American people into submission, but first he's going after the scape goat undocumented immigrants. I'm a few weeks they'll figure new concentration camps or "work camps" to enslaved them.

Ok-disaster2022

Less than 2 months and Democrats will cave because that's what Democrats do. And Americans will be worse off for it.

WaffleHouseGladiator

I hope it lasts a good long time.  The more damage to the government they do, the less it will function afterwards.  And conservatives will take all the blame for all the subsequent govt. incompetence and ineffectiveness.

lol, they wanted to take poor people's medical care away.  And they're willing to destroy so much to get it.  Well, lets see how much damage they're willing to do to spite poor people.

A_Nonny_Muse

The problem with govt shut downs is they don’t shut down the parts that would get this country to stand up and say get your shit together. TSA, ATC, USPS, SS field offices. These would get an uproar going. 
Now it’s just painful for the behind the scenes employees and their families 
It’s bullshit.

iamspartacusbrother

Until the TSA agents and air traffic controllers get sick of not getting paid and quit. Im going with 8 weeks.

LiberalAspergers

Weeks, perhaps a month. Poor and working class people who rely on the government will be worse off. It still won’t change anything for the positive once it’s resolved.

Southboundthylacine

Well the reps certainly won't make fools of themselves....

fromwhichofthisoak

hoptrix

ritzrani

Hopefully soon, this is a dumb ass move.  The insurance rate hikes hit red states disproportionately.  Let them happen in a way they can be squarely blamed on the republicans.  They are going to lose the message in all of the blowback from a prolonged shutdown.

sonstone

simAlity

At least until October 15th since that's the next time Congress is in session.

redneckotaku

I’m not sure but you can bet on it on poly market if you want

slyfly5

Hammer_of_Shawn

Based on previous shutdowns, I can't imagine it lasting longer than 3-4 weeks when the unpaid bills start piling up for the military members. Usually that base is big enough to force some kind of resolution. 

With that timer in mind, I can see Democrat's digging their heels in and putting pressure on the administration to cave in to a compromise. Eventually one will be met (whatever that looks like). Both sides with cheer and act like they won like usual.

SirReginaldTheIII

It will last forever, and will end with the formal end of the constitutional order. 

(I don't really think so, but imagine the odds I could get on that bet.)

metabeliever

I was thinking 15 days or so. Dem's will capitulate on the healthcare subsidies because they are spineless.

GuidetoRealGrilling

Best case scenario…. A return to a competent administration that’s been absent for the last six months. Worst case scenario. And ,IMHO, what looks to be the plan that’s in play. Civil war

priberc

They're probably using this time to finalize who is running in the midterms, so that those not seeking reelection can be the ones to "give in" and allow the incumbents to campaign against the compromise.

LilithDidNothinWrong

When it starts affecting rich people.

So like last time, when the air traffic controllers don’t show up and they can’t fly in their private jets.

4 weeks.

taez555

I have a bet for ice cream with a buddy that it lasts eight more days

starrpamph

He will go for indefinite. Continue ruling with exec orders.

Mindless_upbeat_0420

I don't know and I don't think that we can rely on what happened in prior shutdowns to predict what happens in this one, because the underlying circumstances have changed so much.

In truth, the Republicans in Congress are in no position to negotiate, because they no longer have any power--they have abdicated all of it.  

Why would one side negotiate when the other side cannot deliver on whatever promises they make?

Only the President is in a position to negotiate at this point, because he can simply scuttle anything the Rs in Congress negotiate.  

There is, furthermore, no way to force the President to adhere to any "deal" that gets negotiated in his name, even if he were inclined to negotiate, which he isn't.

As Himmler once said--"who compels us to keep the promises we make?"

Trump has already frozen funding going to states that didn't vote for him, and SCOTUS, through the "Shadow Docket," has already signed off on the President's absolute power to impound funding that has already been approved by Congress.

We have not only tossed out the Constitution, we have also effectively chucked the Magna Carta as well.

The rules have been changed so completely that there is really nothing to be gained by the Democrats by any deal that they could conceivably strike at this point.

Schumer also has no illusions about his future right now--as soon as any deal is struck, he is fucked, but he is not up reelection until 2028.

A lot of people are going to suffer, but there is no other way forward.

daveashaw

It will end with the Dems folding lime chairs, which is what they always do. They're Milquetoasts, which is why we ended up in this situation to begin with.

This could happen as early as this week.

rotervogel1231

CopyNo6298

However long it lasts, the outcome is always the same: public trust in government erodes a little bit more.

Upbeat_Challenge_126

spinja187

This week sometime. Enough dems will cross over and vote to extend.  What they are promised to get their votes I have no idea

Jimbo415650

Probably 4 weeks or so. The outcome is the goals of Project 2025 are accelerated even further to the point that even if the Democratic Party manages to swing the populace in the midterms it won't matter because the damage will be done to the point of being largely irreversible.

tke71709

I would hope as long as it takes for republicans to do the right thing and protect our healthcare

improbsable

"Welp, Government's shut down. Might as well make a new one to take it's place. One that works the way we want right off the bat without all that voting crap we used to have to do." —GOP, probably

OneAndOnlyJackSchitt

Republicans have no intention of doing anything different. The beatings will continue, morale improvement be damned.

cloudbasedsardony

The goal of the shutdown is to cut the federal government. This is Russel voughts job now. He will get rid of almost every agency. 

Once that is done the the senate will make the rule change on the filibuster and approve the new budget

suite4k

Extreme-King

Before Thanksgiving because the Congress and Senate go on a long recess. God forbid they work during that time. 🙄

WichWhich2

I don't think Republicans in Congress ever intend to come back. The federal government will continue to be shut down as the executive orders the military to take over "hostile" cities in states that didn't vote for him. The supreme Court lets it happen because they are bought and paid for while congress is defacto dissolved until the next "elections."

whatdoblindpeoplesee

Sel_drawme

Up to 35 days, maybe more, and Trump will cave on the ACA subsidies.

Jumpy_Childhood7548

I mean at this point who cares? America is a lost cause.

Professor226

A month or so while they dismantle things they don’t like.

BlueShift42

Answer: Congress needs to vote on a budget annually in time for the beginning of the new fiscal year, which is October 1st. There are two bills being proposed, one by each party, but no agreement has been reached. If they don't reach an agreement by midnight on Tuesday, the government can no longer legally spend "non-essential" money, and will shut down until an agreement is reached.

This means that non-essential government employees are furloughed until spending can resume. They will be given back pay later, but have to go without during the shutdown.

For ordinary folks, this means we can't have access to things like national parks, museums, IRS taxpayer services, and some benefits. Federal research projects also get put on hold during that time.

AppendixN

Answer: This is all a fault of one person - Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti who in 1980 made insane decision to interpret US laws to require shutdowns. It happens in no other country, and didn't even happen in US before that craziness started.

Basically Congress needs to pass budget or a "continuing resolution" to fund the government. But what happens if it fails to? In every normal country (including US before 1980!) government just continues operating according to already passed laws and previous funding until Congress makes a decision.

But instead, this was interpreted by this madman to mean that every "nonessential" government function must immediately shut down until Congress comes to an agreement.

This is NOT required by Constitution or any law, and it's just utter madness.

Since that insane legal decision, both parties have been using this opportunity to play a game of chicken, causing regular short term "government shutdowns" that affected pretty much every president so far. It's pointless, highly damaging, but unfortunately everyone involved really likes to play the game of chicken, and is unwilling to stop this.

If you rely on any "nonessential" government function, you'll likely to be affected, but "essential" ones continue to operate.

Answer: A large number of government subsidies and grants are being removed in this budget. Specifically subsidies tied to the ACA (Obamacare). There is a lot of pressure from the public to keep these, so the Democrats are refusing to vote for cloture (end the filibuster) until the subsidies are added.

As far as the shutdown, the largest programs in the Federal Government (Social Security, Military Operations, Medicaid and more) will continue functioning as normal. However, the non-essential staff will be put on unpaid leave.

This non-essential designation is…arguable. For instance, the Forestry Service will be furloughed, right at the start of peak wildfire season. Unfortunately, we don’t know the scale of the shutdown because many of these agencies have not published official Guidance. Guidance is what the agencies would do if funds are frozen.

The other wild card is Trump’s threat to fire government workers. He mentioned vague numbers of how many people he would fire, which is far above the number of people furloughed during previous government shutdowns. Unfortunately, we won’t know until it happens this time around.

EDIT: It looks like Guidance was posted late on Sunday, September 28. We’ll probably have an analysis on the impact tomorrow morning (September 30).

teddyrupxin

Answer: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government\_shutdowns\_in\_the\_United\_States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States)

Generally a "shutdown" is what happens when the current funding for the government's activities is exhausted, and no current budget is in force.  Many of the services that the government performs are suspended, except for those judged to be essential which do carry on.  Many government employees are not paid during shuttdowns, but they are paid retroactively once the government is funded again.

This has happened several times during my life, and is occurring more frequently as time goes on.  In the past, it has happened when the congress and executive branches are controlled by different parties with conflicting goals.  (E.g., More services versus less taxes.)  However, the looming shutdown and the longest shutdown to date have both occurred with Republicans in control of both congress and the presidency.

Despite Trump early on claiming responsibility for the earlier shutdown, he later attempted to pin the blame on the Democrats in congress.  Similar rhetoric is being promulgated at this time, with VP Vance labeling the upcoming one as "a Democratic shutdown" in a recent tweet.

Shutdowns are often ended by passing a "continuing resolution" to keep funding the government's activities until a budget can be passed.  I think that there have been times where they have been ended by the passage of a budget, but I'm not sure on that.  Often enough, it requires the debt ceiling (the amount the government is allowed to borrow) to be raised in order to pass a budget, as a lot of the money the government uses is borrowed money.

dreaminginteal

answer: Democrats want to extend the ACA tax credits  , refund Medicaid that the BBB took away, and fund medical research that was also cut . The yearly budget can’t pass unless a few democrats vote to pass the budget so they have some leverage, but the downside is a government shutdown. Essentially government services keep running but some nonessential are closed.

B0xGhost

Answer: every year Congress and the President need to agree on a budget to fund the Federal government. If a budget is not passed, the government will start shutting down to just essential services, who are people who may not be paid depending on how long it goes for.

To pass a budget requires a bill to pass the house by a majority and 60 Senators in the Senate. Because Republicans don't have 60 senators they need a few Democrats to agree to pass a budget this time

Lately when the two parties can't agree with each other, we get a CR, continuing resolution, which just extends the previous budget for whatever amount of time both parties will agree on. 

However, because This Administration has continued to encourage no working with Democrats and shutting down departments even though they are funded, Democrats are less likely to now work with Republicans, unless their own terms are being met, even for a CR.

alotofironsinthefire

The United States is facing a significant government shutdown due to a deadlock in Congress over funding and healthcare policies, affecting federal workers and services.

US Government Shutdown

Why This Matters

Public Sentiment Summary

Highlighted Comments

Parties Involved

What the people want