Public opinion overwhelmingly expresses skepticism and anger towards the recently leaked military pact among Arab nations against Israel. Commenters perceive Arab leaders as hypocritical and prioritizing self-interest over their commitment to the Palestinian cause. Many view the pact as ineffective and indicative of deeper issues of loyalty to U.S. influence in the region, with calls for unity among Muslim nations gaining traction amidst condemnation of Israeli actions.

Arab leaders

Israeli government

U.S. government

Iran

What’s interesting here isn’t just the hypocrisy it’s how the story and the structure split. Publicly these governments perform outrage to keep the moral narrative intact. Privately, their power is bound by the Western-led security system that sustains them.

It’s the same old loop moral language masks material dependency. These states act as if they’re sovereign, but their power already operates inside boundaries set by the system they claim to resist. Every time that contradiction shows the story holding it together weakens

Wide-Chart-7591

Not surprising. People at the top will only push religious dogma for so long when it is far more lucrative and favorable to increase ties with a formidable military power in the region.

Sageblue32

Tbh, sounds about right. These are paranoid monarchies, and Israel is a top source of military equipment and intel. As such, beyond their farcical political positions (tbh, they haven’t really done much for the Palestinians), I am not surprised that they are engaging Israel beyond closed doors.

piecesofamann

Turkey is conspicuously absent (not that they're Arabs, but still) and is engaged in security competition with Israel in Cyprus and Syria. Kind of interesting how that dynamic will shake out. I tend to think it's more likely Turkey will be the one to be isolated from the region than Israel, partly due to geography but also with Israel turning out to be the regional hegemon militarily, with more support from the US, and with their cyber industry being useful to Gulf monarchs, and the fact they're not struggling with fertility or with their economy, and with the Israel-Azerbaijan alliance, it makes more sense that that's how it'll turn out in the long-run. With Israel as Iran's primary belligerent and the Gulf states seeing Iran as the biggest threat (even though they don't admit it), especially Saudis vs Houthis, and with Israel being willing to clean that mess up for them, with Turkey doing nothing but complaining, and with Saudis and Turks competing for influence in Syria... Hard to see it now, but the Gaza war will wrap up soon, and Israel will normalize with more neighbors and then that outcome could become clearer. Turkey is also antagonistic to Russia, and the EU won't like Turkey's turn to autocracy despite being willing to turn a blind eye to its actions in Cyprus. I am not optimistic about their future.

I also find it frankly odd how Qatar is part of this group. I can understand UAE, Bahrain and the Saudis, but Qatar has been annoying all the other Gulf states, culminating in a multi-year blockade that only recently ended. They also pissed off the Israelis for similar reasons (support for Islamism). Maybe they reached an understanding with the US that they will cut it out, at least one would hope.

Sad_Use_4584

In geopolitical terms, the issues are set by a few basic realities.

First, the relative decline in the attention of the major world power in the Middle East. America has grown particularly unpredictable, due to its own strange trajectory: it is entirely possible to see it withdraw into isolationism at some point in the not too distant future, and former friends can’t rely on it (see the Kurds as an example). The old reliable Cold War rivalry, which enabled the local powers to play the US against the Soviets, does not work any more with the demise of the Soviet Union; and Russia is no substitute (see how sadly they failed Assad in Syria). Europe is basically a nonentity as far as projecting power is concerned, has been for years - it’s not going to fill the void. Neither, it would appear, is China, though that may change. 

Secondly, the rise of regional powers. Of which there are three that really matter: Türkiye, Iran, and Israel - all non-Arab powers, as it turns out. These are capable of filling the void, but they each have their own axes to grind. 

The Arab states aren’t really capable of standing up to these regional powers, so it is best to come to some kind of accommodation with them. But which? And to what extent can they transfer the old Cold War game of playing one off against the other to this new reality? 

The problem, as far as these Arab states are concerned, is that their geopolitical requirements run exactly contrary to the sentiment on the “street”. The population of these nations pretty well loathes Israel, and always has. However, in real geopolitical terms, Israel isn’t a threat to anyone except its immediate neighbours, of which it has reasonably firm deals already with two - Jordan and Egypt. The ones it lacks deals with are basket cases (Lebanon and Syria). Israel has zero ambitions against the gulf states or the Saudis. 

The same cannot be said about the other two regional powers. Türkiye had had run-ins with Saudi Arabia - they both claim leadership of the Sunni world, albeit on totally different basis - and everyone is terrified of the far-reaching influence of Iran and it’s revolutionary Shiite proxies throughout the ME. In actual fact, they both - and particularly Iran - are a far greater danger than Israel ever could be. 

This is true no matter how often leaders proclaim it isn’t, because the divide between Sunni and Shiite isn’t going away and cannot be forgotten. 

So the current conflict certainly had an upside for the Arab states, as the sight of Israel smashing Iranian proxies left and right, and indeed taking on Iran itself, was hardly displeasing. However, they certainly could not say as much publicly, as their own populations were whipped into a frenzy of anger by the sight of Gaza being destroyed. 

What the episode demonstrated to the gulf states were a few things:

- the complete worthlessness of western public pressure to impact events on the ground. Worldwide protests, UN activity, and “lawfare” achieved basically nothing. 

- the Israeli military elevates it to regional power status despite the relatively small size of Israel as a nation. This is because of its effective high tech weaponry and effective (but hardly infallible) security service, plus certain other advantages in education and military leadership. 

- the military prowess of Iranian proxies was hugely over-estimated relative to Israel. In particular, Hezbollah was supposed to have been armed sufficiently by Iran to cause a lot more destruction than it in fact achieved. As a deterrent to Israel, it has proved ineffective. 

What to draw from this if you are say a gulf Arab nation? The obvious conclusion is to leverage, insofar as possible, Israeli hard power to keep Iran in check, while ensuring domestic harmony by ritually condemning Israeli actions, knowing it means nothing. Indeed, some go further, and offer support for Hamas to indicate their “loyalty”. 

The issue will be the extent to which Israel is willing to tolerate this. They may demand some more commitments from the Arab nations, in return for protection; the Arab gulf states do not have the best bargaining position. The strike on Qatar is probably best seen as Israeli impatience with the existing strategy of playing both sides. Currently, Israel is willing to be curbed by the US (hence a grudging apology to Qatar) but if the US retreats into isolation, that may no longer be true.

Which brings up another thing: the extent to which Israel actually relies on the US. In the popular imagination, this has been hugely overblown. Yes, Israel receive billions in military credits, but in percentage terms the amount is not decisive - its withdrawal would be painful but not existential. There would also be an upside, as far as some Israeli strategists are concerned: currently, Israel relies for its supply chain on some US suppliers, a supply the US could interrupt if it chooses. The flipside is that the US has some weapons systems (such as the heavy bombers used on Iran) that Israel could never afford.

Malthus1

Not surprising because with the exception of Qatar, these are countries that already have normalized or it pretty much out in the open they have so called "secret" ties (how secret is it though if it constantly leaked). 

Its fascinating when you think about it Qatar has had ties with Israel but not offical ones, Israel allowed the emir of Qatar a state visit to Gaza in the 2010s, and allowed Qatari LNG gas and funds into Gaza (via Egypt) that pretty much kept Hamas in power, in the 1990s Israel had a trade office in doha, Qatar has managed to have ties with the gcc states (but often tense too at times, as Qatar ties to the muslim Brotherhood,  and role in the arab Soring was problematic for joint Gulf security, and instreasts), the usa, Turkey, Iran, Factions like Hamas and Hezbollah, the Syrian jihadis during the civil war in syria, The Taliban, islamist groups affilated with Al qaeda or had past ties with Al qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, and behind the scenes ties with Israel. I could see Qatar fully normalizing relations under conditions improving in Gaza, and they get to play a role in the reconstruction of Gaza,  and get greater arms and security gurentees from washington due to it complex relationship and sharing of gas reserves with Iran.

Oman isnt a surprise either as briefed on events during these meetings, the late Sultan Qaabas actually hosted Netanyahu I think it as 2018 to Muscat, Israel had a trade office in Muscat in the 1990s up until the second intifada broke out, Oman said at a meeting during trump 1st term that Israel apart of the region (while ironically Jordan protested the statement), and relectuly allowed for a brief period Israeli flights to fly over Omani airspace up until oct.7th. Still the current sultan who succeeded Qaabas seems to trying to balance Oman historic ties with Iran, the gcc states, the Uk and the united states, has faced huge protests and boycotts from their populations since oct.7th and seen the mosques being taken advantage of since oct.7th to support Hamas, and has pressure due to the growing popularity of the Grand Mufti who has praised Hamas, and oct.7th (as well as praising the houthis actions in yemen with regards to israel and attacks on the red sea, praised Pakistan "victory" against India and warned india to remember "how muslims treated you during the caliphate", and generally calling for alcohol to be fully banned, and lgbtq to be treated as under sharia law, etc) so I dont see Oman fully normalizing relations unless it ties with Iran and the houthis fully changes, the Grand Mufti actions wane no that the Gaza,war ending, and the protests from the mosques die down.

Psychological-Flow55

Israel never tried to overthrow their governments

lost_in_life_34

For anyone who doubts the US' support for Israel, this is exactly why it's vital. It stifles pan-Arabic and pan-Islamic movements in the region and pits them against each more than they would be.

Extreme-Outrageous

Are people acting surprised? Israel managed to destroy Hezbollah, Hamas and the entire Iranian sphere of influence in just one year time.

They dictate the entire narrative of the middle east. If anything Israel surpassed all expectations and gained legitimacy with their operational and military overperformance.

You already notice a significant change in behavior towards Israel. Syria for example immediately bent the knee when Israel expanded beyond the Golan Heights into southern Syria, knowing the game has changed.

No one is going to challenge Israel over the next 2-3 decades after what they have pulled off over the last 2 years.

Down_The_Rabbithole

ts159377

This war was just a pause on normalization; public opinion on Israel might have decreased, but it's not like the Arab government cares

Bernardito10

So much for Muslim solidarity, but this isn't surprising, Islamic world still happily trades and cooperates with China on a wide range of issues despite the later's treatment of the Uyghurs. Granted, Uyghurs in China are not the same as Palestinians but still, do as I say, not as I do.

ImperiumRome

Most of the people here might think it's hypocritical, but didn't Jordan and others shoot down Iranian militias flying to Israel?

However, the Arab States are diversifying their defense ties (ie, Pakistan) as we speak. So relations will become much more complicated in the future. I wouldn't be surprised if India ends up backing Iran. Once you get the South Asians involved, the Middle East becomes more complicated.

SriMulyaniMegawati

You know, I get called all sorts of names when I point this out as a cis-het White American man, but there is a grain of truth behind the old timey racist old trope of the “inscrutable Oriental”. That grain of truth is that in the East, what is said and shown overtly is pure kayfabe. Image control. Face-saving. Public-reassuring. Little if any connection to what’s really being done behind the scenes, much ashamèdly.

VelvetyDogLips

That was expected. It would be surprising only to those who do not understand middle eastern (and all you need is the very basic awareness, not in-depth knowledge), especially islamic, disputes. They aren't unified just because they are Muslim.

TeaBoy24

Not surprising; Israel has the most advanced, and one of, if not the largest economy in the Middle East; the sheikhs know which side their bread is buttered on, but they also remember the Arab Spring and don't want to be the next Gaddafi, so publicly they criticize Israel.

egelephant

A lot of them hate the Shias more than the Jews lol

Gamblinman97

Bet a lot of these Arab states secretly wish Israel would annex Gaza just so they dont have to deal with playing this balancing act of being "against" Israel while in reality wanting to form deeper ties. 

SlightlySublimated

Most Arab leaders remember the last time they helped Palestine and Palestinians. They might share the same religion, but not the same values.

fatRunning

many Arab states have banned Brotherhood, a treath to their states.

Plenty_Fox_4949

Arab Leaders vs. Arab Street same as it always was.  They see the wind blowing and where they can make the most profits from but need to pay lip service to their populations that still live 1000 years ago at least when it comes to minorities and Jews

loginisverybroken

lol is this really a surprise they spent the last two years performing performative handwringing while secretly popping champagne at the destruction of Irans influence in the region. 

IWasNotMeISwear

Yup, once again their so-called support for the Palestinians has been revealed to be performative nonsense meant to appease their populations.

SkullLeader

A lot of westerners are surprised to learn that many Arab neighbor states hold a very negative view about Palestinians in general and Hamas in particular. Even Egypt has built a huge wall and are not admitting any Palestinian refugees within their borders. Gulf Arabs hold similar views but even more racist and derogatory.

Patriark

Middle east is way more complex than people will have you believe. Did you know Qatar has bribed many top Israeli officials?

mrpressydepress

[deleted]

The only thing the arabs hate more than the Israelis are the Palestinians.

nihilistcanada

Its almost like no sane people like terrorists. Hmmmm

No_Imagination7102

McGrawHell

The Palestinians through history have been shit neighbors to the surrounding countries. Not a surprise.

Thumpd

It's almost as if they're starting to look beyond religion


All of them

europaMC

I'm glad reports of this are starting to come out.

Many of the world's leading Muslim countries have secretly been reorienting towards Israel for years now, and they have privately expressed support for Israel's efforts against Hamas, Hezbollah and definitely Iran. 

Yet they will publicly condemn Israel and pretend to stand with the Palestinians. They'll fuel anti-Israel sentiment and unreasonable expectations for the Palestinians in public while privately doing the opposite. Imo, this has made the situation much more toxic. 

The conflict won't end until the Arab world allows it.

tyrell_vonspliff

It was pretty clear that was happening, any opportunity to weaken Iran and its proxy’s was an opportunity that the Arab world was not going to miss out on.

RecordEnvironmental4

yeah but throw shit on al jazeera, funking pussies, world should thank israel for wiping all the terrorists

validates_points

All for show.  Makes one look tough talking shit ~~about~~ to big and little satan.  Stupidest dumbest thing.

inbetween-genders

Politics is dirty so this is unsurprising.

Atheizm

Juract

something they have in common with spain apparently

fatbreadslut

Privately of course. Publicly they would not air that to appease their Arab citizens and neighbours.

jacku-all

&gt;Even as key Arab states condemned the war in the Gaza Strip, they quietly expanded security cooperation with the Israeli military, leaked U.S. documents reveal. Those military ties were thrown into crisis after Israel’s September airstrike in Qatar, but could now play a key role in overseeing the nascent ceasefire in Gaza.

&gt;Over the past three years, facilitated by the United States, senior military officials from Israel and six Arab countries came together for a series of planning meetings in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar.

TheMoralHellscape

Of course as someone who lives in the middle east its pretty obvious.

inlovewithmyselfdxb

Religion is the opium of the masses. 

It’s all about control. They don’t give a fuck about normal people.

mover999

Rabbitpyth

mikeber55

Why would China, or any other country for that matter, what to sign a defense pact with a middle eastern nation?   Seems like a good way to be immediately drawn into an international conflict.

greenw40

🤣😂 any professional who has spent time in the region laughs at how absurd and even comical this is. Even more to think that all the desperate Arab nations could somehow put tribal and economic, nationalistic and corruption issues aside …to then forge some semblance of interoperability between military forces over a dispersed battlefield. These countries can barely defend themselves or make amends with other without outside assistance. They pay for US defense systems because it’s good for business and keeps the machine running. Not because even half of them know how to use it, let alone, maintain its complexity.

ClinchHold

ME is just a bunch of oligarchs. There isn't any political will at the elite level except for them to be rich.

Pleiadez

NATO works because the countries involved are *relatively* stable and not typically drawn into *defensive* conflicts. The fact that in it's entire history Article 5 has been invoked exactly once shows that. There is no way an "Arab NATO" functions with their current governments. It would instantly be embroiled in near constant conflicts and become a massive money pit until it fractured and broke apart. That's not to mention the egos and religious differences large and small they have. They might be able to make something similar to the African Union though.

Sekh765

Doubtful as China is also close with Iran, the likely enemy of the Gulf in a hot conflict

LateralEntry

Short answer is no. Countries underestimate the challenges of a defense alliance. They also don't understand the goal. You have an alliance when there is an overwhelming adversary that you need to protect yourself against.

leto78

Yes I'm sure Saudi Arabia will go to war because Israel bombed a Hezbollah target in Lebanon or some such. Good luck with that. 

And people mentioning the UAE do not understand Israel and their government are currently in very close relations. Including economic and military cooperation. The UAE was one of the only states in the world to also not halt flights to and from Israel during the entire war so far.

The reality is that Qatar has learned that their support to Islamist Fascists and treating Hamas ISIS leaders as kings is not safe just because they bought Trump a nice jet, and now they are panicking.

The problem is, they are already working their hardest in order to destroy Israel. Spending an untold amount of resources into supporting Israel's enemies, attacking Israel through law warfare, and working their hardest to radicalize ignorant westerners against the Jewish state. You can't escalate the threat more than that. As long as America is fine with this attack, which seems to be the case, they simply got nothing they can do.

And I will also add, most of those other middle eastern nations hate Qatar. You can look into the way UAE or the Saudis talk about them. You can look into the fact that many nations including Egypt are facing the same Muslim Brotherhood threat sponsored by Qatar and promoted through their state media propaganda Al Jazeera. Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and even lately the Palestinian Authority itself, has banned it. I am betting behind close doors they are smiling seeing the Qataris shi**ng themselves and finally suffering a tiny bit of consequences.

Cannot-Forget

If the largest American base doesn't guarantee US protection, especially from American allies like Israel, what's the use of those bases? America already doesn't sell the latest tech to the gulf countries because they want Israel to maintain an edge over the gulf countries, no they're green lighting attacks on them. 

I say instead of being a Qatar, be a Djibouti. Have multiple bases on your soil and use great power competition against each other.

Cryptogenic-Hal

Middle Eastern countries have already bought Chinese drones, ballistic missiles, tanks, UAVS, and more. The problem is America will probably not allow them to buy bigger equipment like advanced aircraft.

Stannis_Loyalist

Families installed by the British/ later nursed by the Americans won’t lift a finger against those who put them in the good position they find themselves. The Qataris knew the strikes were coming

sovietsumo

Cheap_Coffee

This is pretty sad and pathetic. It was even more sad and pathetic when qatar the terrorists sponsor ran to Trump crying how they got slapped by Israel.

winterchainz

Signal_Intention5759

So everyone who screams "GeNoCiDe" actually collaborated with Israel... Are they all secretly ZiONiSTs?!

gal_z

Sigma-9507

Washington post. How trustworthy is this publication in view of their biased reporting against Israel in the last 2 years? I learned to question everything now.

DarthKava

Leaked US files reveal a secret military partnership between Israel and Arab states aimed at countering Iran amidst the ongoing conflict.

Israeli-Arab Military Pact Against Iran

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